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China CHINA IS A THREAT TO THE ENTIRETY OF ASIA. WILL CATALYZE



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2010 LD Victory Briefs
China
CHINA IS A THREAT TO THE ENTIRETY OF ASIA. WILL CATALYZE
SOUTHEAST ASIAN PROLIFERATION.
(Elizabeth Economy-Fellow for China and Deputy Director of the Asia Studies Program at the Council of Foreign Relations-and Michel Oksenberg-Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Reasearch Center @ Stanford University, Professor of Political Science, China joins the World Progress and prospects, ed. By Elizabeth Economy and Michel Oksenberg, p, 1999) Until the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) takes force, China is not constrained by any extant international arms control regime from modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces, unlike the United States and Russia. However, China can obstruct or advance many important arms control processes. Indeed, although it has shown signs of positive support for nonproliferation measures in recent years, until signing the CTBT in 1996, it continued nuclear testing at a time when the other nuclear powers—with the exception of France—were observing an informal test moratorium. China was also a source of some of the roadblocks to the speedy conclusion of the treaty. It is not particularly enthusiastic about a fissile material production cutoff, even less so if this cutoff were to reduce existing. stockpiles. Moreover, China's support is essential in future efforts to reach agreement among the five declared nuclear powers to reduce their strategic nuclear weapons stockpiles drastically. But it is not clear whether the conditions China might demand would facilitate or hinder agreement.

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