THEFT IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE, AS ADVERSARIES CAN ADAPT TO CHANGES INSECURITY. Matthew Bunn Senior research associate @ the JFK School of Government, ʻ06] A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 607 (Sep, 2006), pp. 103-120 Second, intelligent and adaptive adversaries may react to security upgrades not by giving up but by increasing their capabilities recruiting more people, buying better weapons, and developing more sophisticated tactics. If nuclear facilities need only defend against a handful of outsiders with limited armament, or one insider, relatively simple and low-cost security upgrades will be sufficient. If, on the other hand, nuclear facilities must withstand large teams of well-trained and well-armed militants, and the risk of large insider conspiracies is high, then the security measures needed to reduce the risk of theft to an acceptable level would be expensive and complex. There are presumably some constraints on terror groups' ability to increase their capabilities, but no one knows for sure where the upper bound lies.
