Environmental catastrophe shuts down production---turns the case
Smith, 2012 (James F. Smith is the Communications Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Belfer Center Programs or Projects: The Geopolitics of Energy Project “New study forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity, and risk of price coll” http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-26/new-study-forecasts-sharp-increase-world-oil-production-capacity-and-risk-price-c)
The most dramatic increases involve the exploitation of unconventional oils in the United States, Maugeri says. For example, the Bakken and Three Forks fields in North Dakota and Montana could become the equivalent of a Persian Gulf-producing country within the United States. The Bakken formation’s output has grown from a few barrels in 2006 to 530,000 a day in December 2011. While the surge in production in the Western Hemisphere in coming years will in effect leave the region self-sufficient in oil, the global nature of the market makes that all but meaningless except in psychological terms, Maugeri argues. He adds that the industry will need to make major investments to keep oil production environmentally safe to avoid threatening the new bonanza. The worsening oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday threatened not only the shores of five states but also President Barack Obama's plan to open vast stretches of U.S. coastline to oil and gas drilling. Members of Congress on Thursday issued new calls for Mr. Obama to abandon his plans for expanded offshore drilling, and White House officials conceded that the spreading oil slick could cause the president to rethink his position. "We need to figure out what happened," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said. "Would a finding of something possibly affect that? Of course." In Washington, the White House held a series of high-profile media events aimed at communicating that the administration was fully engaged in the crisis. At a midday news conference, the administration rolled out two cabinet chiefs and other senior White House advisers to assert that the government would do whatever it could to help BP stop the leak. The administration is well aware that the president's campaign victory was built in part on a belief among voters that he would do a better job at responding to disasters like Hurricane Katrina than did President George W. Bush. "This is in that list: Are you competently running government?" Mr. Gibbs said. He said the news conference with senior officials was aimed at letting the press and the public "know what we've done to respond." Janet Napolitano, secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, said there were more than 50 vessels as well as aircraft deployed to the area of the spill and that workers had laid down 174,060 feet of absorbent foam booms and recovered 18,180 barrels of an oily mixture from the gulf's surface. White House officials said they began holding regular conference calls with BP executives soon after the accident. On Thursday, Mr. Obama also called the governors of the five Gulf Coast states, and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar met with oil and gas industry executives to appeal for ideas and help. On Friday, Ms. Napolitano, Mr. Salazar, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, White House Director of Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco will travel to the Gulf Coast at the president's request to inspect ongoing operations dedicated to minimizing environmental risks. Despite these efforts, it remained possible that the leak of oil could continue for as long as three months, by which time it would rival the size of the 1989 spill from the Exxon Valdez. By that time, the damage from the spill could be extensive, and the political effect on Mr. Obama's offshore drilling plan and broader climate change agenda uncertain. "I don't know whether it changes our understanding of offshore oil," David Pumphrey, deputy director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the accident. "But I think it changes the political debate quite a bit." In backing wider offshore oil and gas exploration only a month ago, Mr. Obama promised to "employ new technologies that reduce the impact of oil exploration." He acknowledged that his decision would provoke criticism from those who decried the expansion and those who said it did not go far enough. "Ultimately, we need to move beyond the tired debates of the left and the right, between business leaders and environmentalists, between those who would claim drilling is a cure-all and those who would claim it has no place," Mr. Obama said. The accident in the Gulf may provide more firepower for the critics on the left who for years have lobbied presidents and Congress to keep in place federal moratoriums on further offshore exploration. Those moratoriums have expired. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., called on Mr. Obama to step back from his expanded offshore drilling plans. In a letter to the president, Mr. Nelson said he would file legislation to ban the Interior Department from following through on Mr. Obama's proposal for new seismic and drilling activity. He said the Gulf spill "may be an environmental and economic disaster that wreaks havoc for commercial fishing and tourism along the Gulf of Mexico coast."
Turns the Case-Backlash-Natural Gas The CP solves the case and avoids public backlash that would cripple production
Levi-senior fellow for energy and the environment, CFR, 2012 Think Again: The American Energy Boom Yes, oil and gas made in the USA is surging. But does that really liberate us from the Middle East? http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/18/think_again_the_american_energy_boom
"Strong Regulations Would Kill the Boom."
Dead wrong. The technology at the heart of the U.S. oil and gas boom has become central to the battle between the environmental community and the oil and gas industry. Drillers and their allies have often resisted new regulation, insisting that the industry is already heavily regulated at the state level and that fears of fracking are overblown. Barry Smitherman, chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, captures the sentiment well, warning that more regulation could "kill the technology that's taking us to energy independence." Green groups have hit back with demands for stricter oversight of fracking, highlighting threats to air and water and disruptions to local communities. The Sierra Club has gone so far as to launch a "Beyond Natural Gas" campaign to accompany its efforts to move "Beyond Coal" and "Beyond Oil." Some warnings, like an alarm in early 2011 that Pittsburgh's tap water was radioactive, have been over the top. Executed properly, development of shale gas and oil can be done in ways that safeguard the environment and protect communities. But there are always bad apples and sloppy operators. They require not only solid regulation, which often exists at the state level, but also strong enforcement and penalties to deter and punish violators, which too often do not exist. This is not only about preventing bad behavior -- it's a matter of building public trust. Operators that refuse, for example, to support mandatory disclosure of the chemicals they use in fracking inevitably raise suspicions. That's true regardless of whether those chemicals actually endanger public health. Industry is at its best when it helps craft regulations that protect people and the environment while allowing robust development to proceed apace. But those who instinctively oppose stricter rules are sowing the seeds of their own misfortune: Robust regulation might add a few percentage points to the cost of producing natural gas, but weak regulation will sap confidence, and if communities shut down drilling, the price of natural gas will rise a lot more.
Regulation boosts production – one bad regulatory apple spoils the whole industry
Levi-Brookings Fellow Energy and Environment-5/5/10 http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2010/05/05/why-the-oil-spill-might-be-good-news-for-natural-gas/
Second, the oil spill may lead to greater industry support for serious regulation of shale gas production – and that would be a good thing for production in the long term. If one bad apple causes a bad shale gas production accident, it will tar the whole industry, leading to severely curtailed shale gas production. This danger of this dynamic should now be obvious to industry, given the massive impact that BP’s offshore accident is going to have on ExxonMobil and company’s access to new acreage for offshore drilling. The lesson should be clear: serious regulation is in the interest of responsible companies, because it protects them from the consequences of others’ mistakes. If serious shale gas players didn’t understand this before, they certainly ought to now. Of course, the spill has some negative ramifications for shale gas too. Some will see the oil spill as a sign that all drilling is dangerous, and become more entrenched in their opposition to all shale gas production. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the politics tip in that direction. But increased support for gas – together with tighter regulation – seems to be the more likely outcome.
Turns their regulation bad arguments---backlash causes moratoriums
Content 5/29/12 (Thomas, energy and cleantech writer for JSOnline.com and Milwaukee Journal Sentinel “As shale gas production soars, where will prices head?” http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/business/155382455.html#!page=0&pageSize=10&sort=newestfirst)
The increase in production of natural gas from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is one of the factors driving down utility costs for natural gas customers. But questions have emerged over whether the price of natural gas can stay as lowas it’s been. First, there’s the prospect of more regulation on the environmental impacts of shale gas production. The International Energy Agency on Monday said environmental challenges with fracking will have to be addressed, even as it forecasts a sizable jump in global production of shale gas. The IEA forecasts that shale gas will account for 35% of all natural gas in 2035, up from 14% today, according to Bloomberg News. But environmental concerns about how to deal with wastewater left over from the production process may prompt more regulation, and have already prompted moratoriums against fracking in some states. “The concerns of local communities are legitimate ones,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA in Paris, told Bloomberg. “There are some companies that are following the rules we are suggesting here. The destiny of the shale-gas industry will be decided not by the best practices but by the worst practices.”
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