2014 ndi 6ws-fitzmier, Lundberg, Abelkop Economy Disads Spending da
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AT: EmpiricsEmpirics prove our argumentHanson 08 (Victor Davis Hanson, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, recipient of the 2007 National Humanities Medal and the 2008 Bradley Prize, October 2nd 2008, “America’s Nervous Breakdown – and the World,” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/americas_nervous_breakdown_and.html) Allies trust that the United States is the ultimate guarantor of free communication and commerce — and they want immediate reassurance that their old America will still be there. In contrast, opportunistic predators — such as rogue oil-rich regimes — suddenly sniff new openings. We’ve seen the connection between American economic crisis and world upheaval before. In the 1930s, the United States and its democratic allies — in the midst of financial collapse — disarmed and largely withdrew from foreign affairs. That isolation allowed totalitarian regimes in Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia to swallow their smaller neighbors and replace the rule of law with that of the jungle. World War II followed. / During the stagflation and economic malaise of the Jimmy Carter years, the Russians invaded Afghanistan, the Iranians stormed our embassy in Tehran, the communists sought to spread influence in Central America, and a holocaust raged unchecked in Cambodia. It was no surprise that an emboldened Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once again last week called for the elimination of Israel. He’s done that several times before. But rarely has he felt brazen enough to blame world financial problems on the Jews in general rather than on just Israelis. And he spouted his Hitlerian hatred in front of the United Nations General Assembly — in New York, just a few blocks away from the ground zero of the Wall Street meltdown. / Flush with petrodollar cash, a cocky Iran thinks our government will be so sidetracked borrowing money for Wall Street that disheartened taxpayers won’t care to stop Teheran from going nuclear. At about the same time, a Russian flotilla was off Venezuela to announce new cooperation with the loud anti-American Hugo Chavez and his fellow Latin American communists. The move was a poke in the eye at the Monroe Doctrine — and a warning that from now on, the oil-rich Russians will boldly support dictatorships in our hemisphere as much as we encourage democratic Georgia and Ukraine in theirs. Chavez himself called for a revolution in the United States to replace our “capitalist” Constitution. The lunatics running North Korea predictably smelled blood, as well. So it announced that it was reversing course and reprocessing fuel rods to restart its supposedly dismantled nuclear weapons program. Meanwhile, some shell-shocked American bankers looked to our “friend” China, which holds billions in American government securities, for emergency loans. But the Chinese — basking in their successful hosting of the Olympics, their first foray into outer space, and a massive rearmament — showed no interest in sending cash to reeling Wall Street firms. During this Wall Street arrhythmia, Islamic suicide bombers attacked the American embassy in Yemen and the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan. Suspected Islamic terrorists were caught boarding a Dutch airliner in Germany. And suicide bombers were busy again in Afghanistan and Iraq. The natural order of the world is chaos, not calm. Like it or not, for over a half-century the United States alone restrained nuclear bullies, kept the sea lanes free from outlaws, and corralled rogue nations. America alone could provide that deterrence because we produced a fourth of the world’s goods and services, and became the richest country in the history of civilization. / But the bill for years of massive borrowing for oil, for imported consumer goods, and for speculation has now has finally come due on Wall Street — and for the rest of us as well. Should that heart of American financial power in New York falter — or even appear to falter — then eventually the sinews of the American military will likewise slacken. And then things could get ugly — real fast. ***Uniqueness***2NC UQ—SectorsEcon recovering—manufacturing and auto salesRugaber & Crutsiner 6/25 (Christopher S. Rugaber Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, 6-25-14, “Why a grim US economic picture is brightening” http://www.dailyprogress.com/newsvirginian/news/special_reports/why-a-grim-us-economic-picture-is-brightening/article_b504772e-fc14-11e3-8e93-001a4bcf6878.html) Because most agree that the economy last quarter was depressed by temporary factors — particularly the blast of Arctic chill and snow that shuttered factories, disrupted shipping and kept Americans away from shopping malls and auto dealerships. Since then, the picture has brightened. Solid hiring, growth in manufacturing and surging auto sales have lifted the economy at a steady if still-unspectacular pace. That said, sluggish pay growth and a stumbling housing rebound have restrained the expansion. But the economy's recovery continues. “We had a very bad first quarter, but the first quarter is history,” says Craig Alexander, chief economist at TD Bank. “It doesn't tell you where the economy is going, which is in a direction of more strength.” Wednesday's report will be the government's third and final estimate of the economy's first-quarter performance. Here are five reasons economists are looking past last quarter's dismal showing and five reasons the economy still isn't back to full health. HIRING IS ROBUST If the economy really was tumbling back into recession, you'd see businesses laying off workers — or at least clamping down on hiring. That isn't happening. Employers are adding jobs at the fastest pace in 15 years. That's a pretty clear sign that they see last quarter's troubles as temporary. And layoffs are down. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, has fallen 10 percent since the first week of January. WINTER BLAST With summer in full swing, it might be hard to remember the brutal winter. But the cold damaged the economy last quarter. Spending on autos, furniture, clothes and other goods rose at the slowest pace in nearly three years. With snow blanketing building sites, home construction plummeted in January. Alexander estimates that winter weather slowed economic activity by about 1.5 percentage points on an annual basis. Yet the impact didn't reflect fundamental problems in the economy. Americans who postponed car purchases during winter simply bought cars during spring instead. Auto sales jumped to a nine-year high in May. CLEARING OUT STOCKPILES Another drag on growth last quarter was probably also temporary: Companies sharply cut back on their restocking of goods. That wasn't unexpected. It occurred after companies had aggressively ramped up restocking in the second half of last year. The slowdown in the January-March quarter reduced annual growth by 1.6 percentage points, the government said. With growth strengthening since spring began, businesses are restocking at a faster rate again. Inventories grew 0.6 percent in April, the most in six months. HEALTH CARE COMPLICATIONS Last quarter's economy will look bleak in part because the government needs to correct a mistaken assumption. It previously figured that health spending soared last quarter after many Americans obtained insurance on the Obama administration's health care exchanges. But when data was released this month, there was no sign of such additional spending. As a result, consumer spending probably grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate last quarter, not the 3.1 percent previously estimated, according to JPMorgan Chase. Consumers have accelerated spending since then: Retail sales surged in March by the most in four years — and again in April and May, boosted by auto purchases. This month, consumer confidence reached a six-year high. That's a hint that spending will further strengthen. MANUFACTURING GAINS After slipping in the first quarter, partly because of weather-related disruptions, factories are making more machinery, cars, furniture and computers. They're hiring and giving workers more overtime, which translates into bigger paychecks. Jason Anderson of CertainTeed, a manufacturer in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, said sales of the company's roofing shingles, siding, insulation and other building products have rebounded since last quarter. The company is building a 150,000-square-foot factory in Jonesburg, Missouri. “We're still optimistic about the growth trajectory of the United States,” Anderson says. “All our plans are still on track.” ___ Most analysts think the economy is growing at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the current quarter and will expand at a 3 percent rate for the rest of the year. The Federal Reserve foresees a similar improvement. Still, that pace would leave growth for the full year at about 2.25 percent, only slightly above last year's 1.9 percent. And despite all the positives, it's worth keeping in mind that a truly robust economy wouldn't be thrown off so much by severe weather. Here are signs that the economy still hasn't achieved full health: Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> 2014 2014 -> For want of a nail 2014 -> Stop Militarizing Law Enforcement Act of 2014 2014 -> Ihbb asian Championships 2014 middle school bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> Ihbb european Championships 2014 Bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> International History Bee and Bowl 2013-14 Asian Division Question Set Bowl Round Six 2014 -> United states patent and trademark office 2014 -> Coffs harbour eisteddfod vocal syllabus 2014 -> Listen News Programs Schedule pledge now 2014 -> Slow club announce third album complete surrender Download 0.74 Mb. Share with your friends:
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