3.5.2 NATS 32 4 VoIP services 34 4.1 Service types 34 4.1.1 Categorisation 34 Figure 21: Relationship of categories to services 35 35 4.1.2 State of development of services 36 4.1.3 Wholesale services 37 4.1.4 Related services 37 4.2 Service provision 38 Figure 22: Development routes 39 39 Figure 23: Progress to date 39 39 4.3 Terminal types and availability 40 4.4 Access configurations and user installations 41 4.4.1 Analogue access 41 4.4.2 ISDN 41 4.4.3 xDSL 41 Figure 24: xDSL technologies 42 Data rates 42 Pairs used 42 Analogue access on same pair 42 Range 42 Main application 42 ADSL 42 (Asymmetric DSL) 42 < 8Mbit/s
to the home 42 < 512 kbit/s
from the home 42 1 42 Yes 42 < 4 km 42 High speed Internet access and delivery of video-on-demand 42 HDSL 42 (High speed DSL) 42 2 Mbit/s
symmetric 42 1-3 42 No 42 < 4 km 42 Services to small businesses 42 VDSL 42 (Very high speed DSL) 42 >> 2Mbit/s 42 1 42 No 42 < 500m 42 Short connections of user premises to cabinets in the street served by fibre 42 4.4.4 ADSL 42 Figure 25: ADSL by the provider of the copper loop 42 42 Figure 26: ADSL on unbundled loop 43 43 Figure 27: ADSL on BT shared loop 43 43 4.4.5 VoDSL 44 4.4.6 Cable modems 44 Figure 28: PacketCable Architecture 44 44 4.5 The home of the future 44 5 The Retail Market 46 5.1 The current UK telecommunications retail market 46 Figure 29: Market shares for exchange lines 46 46 Figure 30: Market shares and growth for residential call minutes 46 46 Figure 31: Market shares and growth for business call minutes 46 46 5.2 Internet access 48 5.3 Commercial models 49 5.4 Implications for new forms of telephony 50 5.5 Differences between the UK and the USA 50 5.6 Conclusion 51 Figure 32: Changes in retail market segments 52 52 6 Forecasts 53 6.1 Telephony service provision 53 Figure 33: Voice service provision 54 54 6.2 Telephony services types 54 6.3 Terminals 54 Figure 34: Trends in terminal use 55 55 6.4 Access 55 Figure 35: Access developments 56 56 6.5 Networks 56 6.5.1 Network types 56 Figure 36: Network developments 58 58 6.5.2 Network use 58 6.6 Residential traffic forecasts 60 6.6.1 Qualitative 60 Figure 37: Growth of voice traffic from PCs 62 62 6.6.2 Quantitative projections to 2005 62 Figure 38: Projections of residential IP telephony minutes from PCs 63 63 Figure 39: Forecasts for telephony from PCs 64 64 6.7 Summary 65 Figure 40: Future scenarios 65 Period 65 Short term
2001-2005 65 Medium term
2006-2010 65 Long term
2011 onwards 65 Services 65 Public telephony (E.164) universal 65 Internet named telephony grows but only for informal groups 65 Public telephony (E.164) universal 65 Internet named telephony becomes an any-any service 65 Both exist alongside each other 65 Service provision 65 Fragmentation 65 Consolidation and battle between ISPs and telcos 65 Impossible to predict 65 Terminals 65 Analogue unaffected 65 Growth phase for telephony from PCs 65 Analogue terminals start to decline 65 Growth phase for standard IP telephones and integrated home systems 65 Integrated home systems 65 Access 65 Separate analogue and ADSL NTPs 65 Analogue access declines 65 Growth phase for new IP based NTP 65 Standard IP based NTP 65 Networks 65 Growth phase for bypass and ITSPs 65 Growth of wholesale services 65 Growth of global IP managed networks without interconnection 65 Replacement of circuit switched networks with SIP on IP or BICC on ATM. Media carried direct on ATM in many networks 65 IP based interconnection implemented 65 Slow migration to all-IP as SIP gradually replaces BICC and IP is used without ATM and SDH 65 7 Conclusion 66 Contacts 67
Technology and liberalisation have led to many changes in telecommunications during the last decade but greater changes are in prospect for this new decade.
The Internet Protocol is recognised as the common transport system for networks of the future. The public Internet with its email and world wide web information service have become part of everyday life although few people had used either eight years ago. The process of moving voice services onto IP is beginning.
This report has two objectives:
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to outline how networks will change over the next 5-7 years with respect to voice communications
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to estimate the proportions of voice communications of residential and small business users that will be carried on IP in fixed networks
With IP based networks, there is a clear separation between access, transport and service provision. Two types of IP transport networks are used to provide services:
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The public Internet, which was conceived from the computer data communications culture and is an “open” network of interconnected networks run by different parties and available without restriction for the creation of services through functionality at the edge of the network,
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Managed IP networks, which are essentially closed and support only specific services that are created by the network operator or an authorised service provider.
Figure 1 summarises the differences between the Internet and managed IP networks.
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