Distinguishing local and remote drivers of change in migratory bird populations

Recent analyses of monitoring data from Moreton Bay, Australia, have identified declines in abundance of up to 79% between 1994 and 2008 for a suite of migratory shorebirds. However, resident species that remain in Australia all year round are not declining. This suggests that declines in Moreton Bay may be being driven from impacts elsewhere in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Here we assess the relative importance of factors local to Moreton Bay, in addition to those reflecting threatening processes elsewhere along the migratory routes of the birds, in explaining population trends. To achieve this, we first contrast a spatial formulation of the N-mixture model with existing non-spatial models to estimate abundance of migratory shorebirds in Moreton Bay and identify how these have changed since 1994. Prior to these analyses, the spatial data collected across Moreton Bay was amalgamated into a non-spatial index of bird abundance; the average number of birds counted per site visited. In contrast, N-mixture models allow spatially variable threats to be incorporated by entering sites separately into the model. Finally, we distinguish local and remote drivers of population decline by testing the effects of a range of covariates on abundance, including: climate, habitat loss and habitat degradation at non-breeding, stopover and breeding sites. Result indicate that a combination of local effects within Moreton Bay and those acting at stopover sites in East Asia best explain the observed declines in Australia. Our work shows that data from a single point in a migratory flyway can be used to draw inference about what is driving population dynamics from elsewhere along the migratory route. Our results highlight the urgent need for broader scale analyses of shorebird abundance to identify exactly where in the flyway the drivers of decline are operating most strongly.

Assessing biodiversity requires surveying insects within an ecosystem, but identifying the species can be difficult because of the skill sets required and the time needed to develop them. Automated identification systems are advantageous because they do not rely on user knowledge of taxonomy. We developed a fully automated program that uses pre-processing of wing images and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to identify bees and dragonflies to species level. To date our system has attained 100% accurate identification for 2 out of 12 test bee species and 6 out of 13 test dragonfly species, and greater than 80% accuracy for 7 out of 12 test bee species and 10 out 13 test dragonfly species. By requiring only the single input of wing images by the user, the program has the potential to speed up an ecosystem survey, where common species easily identified by the program constitute the bulk of samples. With this automated system, we can use pre-existing collections of identified specimens to expand our pool of identifiable species. The speed of identification provided by systems like ours offers advances in detection of invasive species, species monitoring, assessing ecosystem function, and conservation.

When planning for the management of multiple threatened species with a limited budget, wildlife managers prioritize certain actions over others in order to conserve the most species into perpetuity based on a common persistence objective. The New Zealand Department of Conservation has developed a rigorous project prioritization protocol (PPP) to optimize resource allocation. The aim is to secure the greatest number of unique species with a 95% probability of persistence over the next 50 years by carrying out species-specific actions for multiple populations. It may be possible to fund many more species with the same budget if this high level persistence target was relaxed. We use a data-set of all 700 New Zealand threatened species projects to examine how many more species could be conserved if we reduce their probability of persistence by managing fewer populations per species. We re-evaluate the use of persistence objectives in conservation planning using two approaches: a) presenting the relationship between target persistence levels and number of species managed, and b) relaxing the PPP objective so that the cost-effectiveness of every individually-managed population is considered separately and the maximal number of species conserved is calculated without an arbitrary persistence threshold. Our findings advance the field of threatened species priority setting by offering an alternative prioritization approach that is not underpinned by a common threshold of persistence.

Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity certified the importance of monitoring the conservation status of biodiversity. Yet too often the lack of data has resulted in the evaluation of a limited monitoring period, even for species with long generation times such as carnivores or ungulates. We have reviewed literature sources on the past threat status of the world's carnivore and ungulate species, and have applied current criteria to assign them retrospective Red List categories. All the assigned categories have undergone a sequential expert check process. A negative trend in the conservation status of carnivores and ungulates has characterised the past 40 years, and has exacerbated after 1996. Between 1975 and 2008 the proportion of threatened species increased from 29% to 36%, with 23% of species undergoing a deterioration in status. Ungulates experienced a steeper decline than carnivores, and large-bodied species had a steeper decline than small ones. A negative trend was especially marked in Southeast Asian species, with 50% of them moving one Red List category closer to extinction. Conversely, South American felids recovered following the fur trade ban of the CITES convention (in 1975). International conservation efforts had a role in reverting the decline of several species, but did not stop the global declining trend. A better understanding of the recent pathways of global species decline will help to better frame future conservation strategies.

Three globally threatened species of sea turtle have been recorded in the waters around the Koh Rong archipelago off Cambodia's southwest coast: the green turtle Chelonia mydas, the hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata and the leatherback Dermochelys coriacea. In order to learn about how communities around the Koh Rong archipelago interpret and interact with these species we investigated the local human populations' relationship and use of these turtles. Our study used qualitative social science research methods including semi-structured interviews, a participatory mapping exercise with a community fisheries committee, a focus group, as well as participant observation and ethnographic note taking. The study identified four frames of reference for the sea turtle: turtles as victims, turtles as occasional food, turtles as spiritual beings, and turtles as a promise for the future. These frames of reference were expressed in all villages and amongst most demographics. Our study also identified several perceived threats to sea turtle survival around the Koh Rong archipelago. Most frequently cited were trawling boats, nets, Vietnamese fishermen, hooks, illegal fishing and overfishing. Understanding how local people interpret and interact with sea turtles and perceive threats to their survival provides important insights for the implementation of nature conservation and education programs, which our study aims to inform.

How to identify terrestrial conservation targets that are politically viable and scientifically valid is a topic of ongoing discussion in the global conservation community. In the U.S., vast areas of public land, including those administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), present a conservation opportunity, but also a challenge due to diverse interests of many stakeholders and inherent conflicts arising from a multiple use mandate. For the 11 contiguous western states in which the BLM chiefly operates, we used a novel multiple criteria analysis to model and map contiguous areas of unprotected roadless BLM land that possessed important ecological indicators of high biodiversity, resilience to climate change, and landscape connectivity. Specifically, we leveraged a systematic process of variable selection and available spatial datasets to implement a statistically robust analysis of seven key indicators at three different spatial scales and to locate Conservation Priority Areas (CPAs) across 294,274 km^2 of BLM land. Within this extent, we identified 43,196 km^2 of land with relatively high conservation value and 26 unique CPAs totaling 6,057 km^2. Most CPAs were in Utah and Nevada, where the majority of BLM lands are located. Identifying these CPAs provides multiple stakeholders with a diverse set of places and data that can be useful in ongoing efforts to promote landscape conservation and special designations on lands managed by the BLM and adjacent owners.

Agro-forestry combines a multitude of benefits both in the environmental, social and economic side. As a mitigation strategy, agro-forestry derives its importance from the multitude activities which all have the potential of creating income for farmers and contribute to fix a large quantity of carbon in the biomass as well as in the soil. However, the benefits of carbon for farmers cannot be fully perceived if the carbon is not quantified accurately and the efforts to estimate carbon sequestration in agro-forestry systems are still facing a big challenge. In my study I will use techniques that combine ground and remote sensing data to measure the carbon stocks in rural farming systems under agro-forestry in landscape level. The first part of the analysis will develop the basic measurement tools for monitoring carbon stocks in systems of trees outside of forests using remote sensing, ground measurements and GIS. Regression analysis will be used to estimate the change in the tree dbh from a given change in the tree crown projected area to predict tree dbh from the given crown projected area. The second part of the study will seek to understand the degree to which local farmers and community groups can be collaborators in the carbon measurement process by assessing their ability to make measurements.

Collaborative decision-making is becoming increasingly popular in the conservation arena. This all-inclusive approach to managing common resources is in direct contrast to the expert model of decision-making, where managers are regarded as the final authority to deal out decisions to those affected. While many scientists and practitioners are applauding this surge in collaboration, few stop to consider why it is becoming so necessary. One theory suggests that modernization, indicated by urbanization and rising levels of income and education, creates an atmosphere in which people, whose basic needs are provided for, can focus on higher order values of self expression. Modernization, therefore, would lead to distrust in traditional hierarchical forms of government and toward more politically open systems. We tested this theory in regards to its potential impact on wildlife-related thought in the western U.S. We found that mutualism, a wildlife value orientation that considers animals as deserving of rights and caring, was associated with values focused on self expression and political freedom. We additionally determined a negative relationship between mutualism and trust in state-level fish and wildlife agencies, meaning that trust declined as mutualism scores increased. Findings indicate that modernization is fostering more egalitarian beliefs within society, suggesting a need to continue, and in some cases increase, collaborative efforts to reach conservation goals.

Ecoregions dominated by grassland ecosystems have historically provided ample goods and services to the human population. Intense land use has resulted in a vast transformation of historic grasslands into cropland and grazing lands. In temperate grassland biomes, the rates of protection compared to conversion are the lowest of all biomes. We combine the International Vegetation Classification with the Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World to provide an analysis of global grassland biodiversity capable of being integrated into global policy and management decision-making frameworks. With a combination of these two systems we can advance a systematic, detailed biodiversity measurement apparatus which can account for biodiversity in a broad sense, including not only biological information, but also the spatial ecological complexes within which species occur. We have produced an up-to-date map of grassland ecosystems supported with basic vegetation data and ecoregional distributions, which we hope will guide grassland ecosystem management efforts through our current age of global economic expansion and population growth. We suggest using our framework to develop better, more adaptive management strategies and developing governmental policy based on each hierarchal level of biodiversity, including structure, function, and composition of the ecosystem, species, and genetic makeup contained therein.

A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. At the same time there is increasing awareness that climatic heterogeneity driven by complex terrain may spatially buffer the effects of rapid climate changes. This has prompted the use of climate velocity for estimating the rate of climate change as it accounts for regional changes in climate and the ability of topographic heterogeneity to buffer biota against these changes. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Climate velocity for these variables demonstrate complex patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Climate velocity estimates increase as the spatial resolution of climate data is coarsened due to the fact that coarsely grained data underestimates the heterogeneity of climate gradients in areas of complex terrain. The sensitivity of climate velocity to climate data resolution is most pronounced at fine grain sizes highlighting the importance of topoclimatic variability for assessing the capacity of organisms to keep pace with changing climate.

African lion (Panthera leo) populations are becoming increasingly isolated with regional extinction imminent for many areas. Their survival in many regions is largely dependent on non-protected landscapes. Human-altered landscapes often surround protected areas and are frequently considered not suitable for long-term maintenance of lion populations. However, many of these areas, although depleted, have the potential to support carnivores, albeit at lower densities than found in protected areas. Furthermore, they are essential for maintaining the connectivity between larger protected populations and are thus important components of effective conservation strategies. We present findings on a long-term study of a lion population living on non-protected human-dominated lands and that is often in direct conflict with humans. We explore basic characteristics of the persecuted lion population, particularly in relation to behavioral and ecological adaptations to survival in human-altered areas. We also examine how the increased tolerance of local human communities could allow the movement and survival of carnivores in non-protected areas thus maintaining connectivity and viability of protected populations. Although protected areas are necessary for long-term persistence, alone they are not enough. Most of the lands required for carnivore survival are in lands that are affected by human populations.

Created in 1995 by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of Mexico, the Wildlife Without Borders - Mexico program (WWB - Mexico) represents a cooperative effort to conserve the biodiversity and the integrity of the natural wealth shared by these two nations. WWB-Mexico builds human and institutional capacity for biodiversity conservation and management through training. The program provides small grants by partnering with key stakeholders from government agencies, private sector, universities, schools, NGOs, indigenous and peasant farmers organizations. Important and valuable lessons have been learned in the last 18 years during the implementation of more than 310 projects (over $9 million USD in funding and $24 million USD in local counterpart contributions), that have trained more than 12,000 people while benefiting more than 104 species of international concern.

Living shoreline stabilization, an alternative to hard-armoring techniques, uses biomimicry to decrease erosion, provide structurally complex intertidal habitat, and potentially adapt to future sea level rise. Beginning in 2008, we scientifically tested living shoreline techniques and found a multi-species approach with oyster shells, Spartina alterniflora transplants, and 1-yr old mangrove seedlings reduced erosion along major boating channels in Canaveral National Seashore, FL. We applied our living shoreline methodology to protect Turtle Mound, a Native American shell midden, experiencing severe shoreline erosion. In April 2011, we worked with multiple stakeholders, including the Park service, local government, recreational anglers, and community volunteers, to stabilize 200 m of shoreline. Volunteers deployed 1140 oyster shell mats, 622 S. alterniflora transplants, and 450 mangrove seedlings (Rhizophora mangle and Avicennia germinans) grown by local schools. On-going monitoring has documented no significant difference in the rate of erosion compared to control living shorelines. However, mean percent cover of S. alterniflora and mangrove species increased from less than 3% before stabilization to 33% and 30%, respectively, after 20 months. Oyster recruitment was 24 oysters per 0.25 m2. Continued monitoring allows for continued evaluation and adaptation of our science-based approach to living shoreline stabilization and guides current and future projects.