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Bloggers in Lebanon respond to the latest round of Hezbollah-encouraged rioting in and around Beirut. Also, there's something about a State of the Union address that apparently happened last night.

Bloggers wax prophetic about the Oscar nominees and condemn the murder of Armenian editor Hrant Dink in Istanbul.

Dream deferred: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its Oscar nominations Tuesday. Dreamgirls drew eight nominations—more than any other film—but didn't get a nod for best picture. Meanwhile, Borat's up for best adapted screenplay, and Martin Scorsese has yet another crack at best director. Bloggers emit huzzahs, moans, and, of course, prophecies.

David Weigel at Reason's Hit & Run isn't surprised by much except the Dreamgirls snub: "Most people who still care about the Oscars will probably be happy with the nominations, as 1)The Departed was a huge hit 2)National Lampoon's Redondo Beach Vacation (a.k.a. Little Miss Sunshine) was also a hit and 3)black people don't watch the Oscars."

At VH1's Best Week Ever blog, Michelle Collins feels the hurt: "Was Dreamgirls cheesy? Of course. Over the top? How could it not be. But exciting and fun and dramatic and tear-jerking? Yes. Clearly, this is some sort of Hollywood backlash against 'good times.' " Rachel Sklar at the Huffington Post's Eat the Press is shocked by the shafting: "Wow, 'Babel' instead of 'Dreamgirls' in so many key places; the Oscar clip show is going to be intense and boring this year, with way too few sequins."

Sometime film critic John M. Scalzi at By The Way… provides extensive analysis of each category, including best director: "Look: Scorsese's due. Everyone knows it. And what's more, this year the stars are lining up for him. Frears isn't a serious threat because The Queen is not a serious contender for Best Picture. Eastwood already has two directing Oscars and (I suspect) would probably tell people to vote for Scorsese anyway, because what does he need a third for? And Alejandro González Iñárritu, good as he is, doesn't have the constituency Scorsese has. … If Scorsese doesn't win, I will buy a hat and eat it." Melvin Crabtree at Crabbie's Hollywood rips into the best actress nominees: "How boring is this? Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Helen Mirren. Ugh. And Kate Winslet. If that chick were any duller she'd be Rachel McAdams. The only halfway exciting name in the bunch is Penelope Cruz."

TV comedy writer Ken Levine offers some pithy one-offs: "Diana Ross must've been on the nominating committee. … If Eddie Murphy does win don't expect a repeat with NORBIT. … Is this finally the year for Martin Scorsese to win Best Director? He's the perfect winner too because he's the only guy who can thank 47 people in under ten seconds."

Read more about the Oscar nominees.

Turkey shoot: Armenian newspaper editor Hrant Dink was shot dead in Istanbul Friday, after being prosecuted for challenging the Turkish government's take on the 1915 Armenian genocide. One gunman reportedly confessed to the shooting, while tens of thousands of mourners surged into the streets for Dink's funeral. Bloggers think the consequences could be grave.

Amos at Middle East group blog Kishkushim sees "two ways to read the recent murder of the Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink. Some fear that this is the beginning of an open season on those who, like Dink, challenge the ultra-nationalist vision of Turkey. On the other hand, the public and literary condemnations of the murder may also signal the self-assertion of Turkish liberals."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded to the murder by announcing, "A bullet was fired at freedom of thought and democratic life." Michael van der Galien at the Moderate Voice thinks he's full of it: "[T]he Turkish government should honor Hrant Dink by getting rid of the ridiculous law that says that one is not allowed to insult the Turkish identity (which was used against Dink). Until that time I will simply regard Erdogan's words to be hypocritical."

Little Green Footballs' conservative Charles Johnson complains of a "media blackout" on the subject of the killer's motives: The press is "pushing the 'Turkish nationalist' angle in the assassination of Armenian editor Hrant Dink, as if 'Turkish nationalism' were completely unconnected to its Islamic roots."

Hugh Fitzgerald at the conservative Jihad Watch considers Dink's murder the last blow to Turkey's E.U. membership: "Call off the farce. And this should also be the time when the Bush Administration reads Turkey the riot act about Kurdistan, and starts to make plans for that independent state … And if it doesn't accept that? Then Turkey, whose military is entirely dependent on American re-quipping, American spare parts, American training, can see that American connection go up in smoke from the top of Mount Ararat."

Bloggers jump on the chance to be nonchalant about Hillary Clinton's announcement that she is running for president. They react skeptically to President Bush's proposal to tax employer-provided health benefits, and violently to a California assemblywoman's proposal to make spanking a crime.

M.J. Rosenberg liked the style of her announcement, done on her Web site rather than at a press conference or late-night show. "Whoever came up with HRC's announcement strategy deserves real kudos," praised Rosenberg, who works in Washington on Israel-Palestine issues, at TPM Café. "I like the way she downplays the whole thing. No drum rolls. No Bill. Nothing flashy. Just her on a couch talking to the people. … I've always been skeptical of her chances but things are changing."

Ed at conservative Captain's Quarters was less impressed by the senator's vocal stylings. "No one seriously thought she'd take a pass, and all this does is confirm what everyone already knew. It's interesting that she committed this early, though. … The early announcements … by people like Barack Obama may have forced her into an early commitment."

Liberal Matthew Yglesias urges the blue masses to steel themselves against the GOP insult-o-rama that is about to kick into gear. "[B]efore Kerry was super-lame, there was Al Gore and he was . . . super lame," he writes. "And now here I am catching up on my Corner reading and look how personally unappealing Hillary Clinton turns out to be. … No matter who it is the Democrats nominate, that person is going to wind up mocked as obviously the wrong the choice; obviously just an absurd person who absurd primary voters picked over dozens of more appealing choices."

As far as whether she can win, Kevin Drum at lefty blog Political Animal thinks she's got at least one big advantage: "She has nowhere to go but up. Seriously. Every nasty thing that can possibly be said about her has already been said. … Rush Limbaugh will spew his usual swill to the dittoheads, but for the most part all the old attacks will seem, well, old."

Read more about Hillary's first steps toward the presidency.

Conservatives like Optimistic Patriot wonder what the president is thinking by proposing a tax on working people. "Does he think raising taxes is a good way to bolster his flagging popularity?" he asks at New England Republican. "His plan is to raise taxes on the 200 million or so Americans with employer sponsored insurance to help offset the costs of the 40 or so who don't. Giving up your steadfast support for lower taxes is not going to improve your administration's prospects, Mr. President."

On the left, Ezra Klein, who writes frequently on health-care issues, finds himself defending the president's plan. "Bush is taking a tentative first step towards a traditionally progressive end: Making the health care system more equal, and untethering it from employers," he writes at the blog of the liberal American Prospect, TAPPED. "… If employer benefits cease being so subsidized, and their true cost and inefficiency comes clearer, the case for reform will strengthen."

Read more about Bush's proposed health-insurance plan.

Spare the rod! A Democratic assemblywoman in California has proposed a law that would make spanking young children a misdemeanor punishable by up to a year in jail or a $1,000 fine.

The Artist at Art of the Blog, a libertarian Texan, wants to strike a deal with the two parties: "the Nanny Left can have this law. Go ahead. Make spanking illegal. In return you have to let the Nanny Right have a law. Maybe it's sex before marriage is now illegal. … How can either side not see that trying to run people's lives like this is anathema to everything America stands for?"

At Summa Philosophiae, a site devoted to philosophy and the Scriptures, Susan comments that spanking is too quickly defended. "Many Christians will quote the 'spare the rod' verse, or 'all discipline seems painful..' and so on and will justify spanking very young children with all sorts of rules and qualifications…," writes the mother of three. "When it comes right down to it, and if parents are honest, most spanking happens in the heat of the moment when the parent is annoyed. This is nothing more than selfishness on the part of the parent and this is what the child learns: If you are annoyed with someone's behavior, strike out at them."

And Glenn Reynolds, the law professor at InstaPundit, blogged for libertarians everywhere with his assessment: "I'd have more confidence in the California legislature's ability to run people's lives if it were better at running California."

Read more about California's proposed spanking ban.

today's papers
Dead or Alive
By Daniel Politi
Friday, January 26, 2007, at 5:43 AM ET

The Washington Post leads with news that the White House has authorized the U.S. military to kill or capture Iranians who are believed to be working with Iraqi militias. President Bush approved the program last fall as part of a larger effort to prevent the spread of Iranian influence across the region. The Los Angeles Times leads with the way in which Muqtada Sadr has been avoiding clashes with U.S. and Iraqi forces in the past few weeks. His followers are participating in the Iraqi government and some officials from his party are even meeting with U.S. officials. The Wall Street Journal tops its world-wide newsbox, and nobody else fronts, the latest from Lebanon, where the army has imposed a curfew in Beirut after at least three people were killed in clashes that began at a university between those loyal to the government and Hezbollah supporters. This raises concerns the Lebanese government can't maintain any semblance of order, just as donors pledged $7.6 billion in aid to help the country rebuild.

The New York Times leads with a look at the extent to which the Bush administration has used secrecy while defending its domestic eavesdropping program. Some lawyers and judges are starting to push back and say that much of the secrecy is unnecessary and ultimately impedes lawsuits objecting to the program from moving forward. The first appellate argument in the lawsuits challenging the program will begin Wednesday. USA Today leads with data that show airline delays reached a record high last year. By several measures the delays seem to be higher than in 1999 and 2000, when they were so frequent that lawmakers threatened to take matters into their own hands. Planes were delayed a total of 22.1 million minutes last year.

For the past year, military officials have been detaining Iranian "agents" in Iraq and then releasing them after a few days, which the Bush administration felt didn't go far enough. While some believe that hitting Iran hard in Iraq could dissuade the country from pursuing nuclear weapons, others believe that angering Iran would put more U.S. troops and citizens across the region at risk. There have been no known uses of the new authority, which excludes diplomats and civilians, but the military has apparently been pressured to use it more aggressively.

There are several interesting tidbits throughout the story, but the Post's Dafna Linzer leaves one of the best for the end. Two administration officials separately compared the Iranian government to the Nazis and Iran's Revolutionary Guard to the "SS." In addition, the officials used the term "terrorists" in talking about Guard members, which could make them targets in the "war on terror."

Everyone seems to be skeptical as to why Sadr decided to lay off confrontation for now. Some U.S. officials fear this could all be part of a strategy to lay low while the pressure is on, but the change of tone is undeniable. One of the leaders in Sadr's movements even endorsed President Bush's new plan for Iraq.

Over in the Post's op-ed page, Gary Anderson does a little role-playing and imagines how a planner with Sadr's Mahdi Army might react to Bush's Iraq plan. Anderson lays out a few possible courses of action, but the one he says would serve "long-term interests" involves stopping any visible attacks, and instead targeting U.S. and Iraqi troops through snipers and bombs. This would keep "our fingerprints off such operations because the Sunnis will probably do this regardless of what we do."

The Post fronts a dispatch from Baghdad that looks at the way many Iraqis see Iran's influence in their country differently from U.S. officials, who talk only about military involvement. The two countries have a burgeoning commercial relationship, and many citizens of both countries feel a kinship to their neighbor. "The economic power between the two countries, it's enormous," said Iran's ambassador to Iraq, who refers to Americans as "the others." (TP assumes he didn't mean to make a reference to Lost, even if some similarities are quite striking.)

The LAT and WP front, while everyone else reefers, the latest from the Scooter Libby trial. Yesterday, Vice President Cheney's former spokeswoman testified she told Libby that Joe Wilson's wife worked at the CIA days before he supposedly first learned of Valerie Plame's identity from a reporter. The former spokeswoman also revealed Cheney was in charge of the effort to discredit Wilson. The Post puts the straight news story inside but fronts a Dana Milbank column that looks at the way in which yesterday's testimony "pulled back the curtain on the White House's PR techniques."

Everybody mentions Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's announcement that the administration will ask for $10.6 billion in aid for Afghanistan, which is more than what the Post reported yesterday.

The NYT fronts, and the LAT goes inside, with a new study that reveals smokers with a specific brain injury can immediately stop puffing without getting any cravings. One man described how his body "forgot the urge to smoke." Researches hope this will help them develop more efficient treatments for smokers who want to quit.

The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and USA Today lead, and the Wall Street Journal tops its world-wide newsbox, with the Senate foreign relations committee approving a nonbinding resolution that declares the administration's plan to send more troops to Iraq is "not in the national interest." The resolution was approved 12-9, with only one Republican, Sen. Chuck Hagel voting with the Democrats. Although the vote numbers might make it seem like the committee was divided, in fact, most senators agreed the plan was not a good idea but many Republicans disagreed with the strategy or wording of the resolution. The New York Times leads with a look at how some big states are likely to move up their presidential primaries to make them more relevant. This shift could lead to fundamental changes in the way presidential campaigns operate.

Both the NYT and WP emphasize in the lead that the Senate foreign relations committee vote came a day after President Bush asked Congress to give his plan a chance. The full Senate could vote on the resolution next week. But now there's another contender in the resolution race, this one put forward by Republican Sen. John Warner of Virginia with several Republican co-sponsors. Although the resolutions are largely similar, the LAT does the best job of pointing out the differences. Warner's resolution doesn't automatically discount all troop increases in Iraq, stating that the 4,000 planned for Anbar province may be necessary. It also does a thorough job of recognizing the president's power as commander in chief, which could go a long way in gathering support from Republican senators.

California, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey are currently considering moving their primaries earlier in the calendar year. Since these are some of the most expensive (and expansive) media markets, it would force candidates to gather enough money and support to compete. The conventional wisdom is that this move would make the first, smaller, states a little less relevant and benefit those candidates with big clout and deep pockets, although some disagree. Experts are still analyzing, but as a Democratic consultant tells the paper, "The nominating process in 2008 is not a little different. It's fundamentally different."

Whatever the senators end up voting on, it won't much matter to the administration, Vice President Cheney told CNN yesterday. Most of the papers include Cheney saying Congress "won't stop us" but the Post goes a step further and fronts a separate story that looks at the whole interview. Apparently everyone is wrong about Iraq. According to Cheney, although "there's problems" in Iraq there's also "been a lot of success." Cheney challenged CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer throughout the interview and accused him of wanting "to bail out." The vice president said many in the media, along with several lawmakers, want to "write off" Iraq and "declare it a failure." The paper notes the vice president's attitude was very different from that expressed by Bush at the State of the Union address (video available here). Cheney wasn't only angry about Iraq, he also got a little peeved when Blitzer asked him about his daughter's pregnancy.

In other Iraq news, the LAT fronts a large picture of the latest offensive by U.S. and Iraqi forces into Baghdad's Haifa Street, where they were attempting to push out militias. As the Post reminds readers high in the story, a fight took place in the neighborhood two weeks ago. Like before, some neighborhood residents accuse U.S. troops of helping Shiite militias by driving Sunnis from their homes.

The LAT goes inside with an interesting dispatch from one of the paper's local journalists, who describes what he had to deal with as he carried out some errands throughout the day in Baghdad before heading to work. Unlike most of these pieces, this isn't one of those intense stories of how an everyday situation turns tragic. It's interesting precisely because it talks about how doing everyday things has become complicated, even when there isn't a bombing or kidnapping. It illustrated that even when it isn't directly seen, violence is always present in Iraq.

The Post fronts word from sources who say the Bush administration is working on a series of new initiatives to help Afghanistan as it anticipates a new offensive by the Taliban this spring. The White House will ask Congress for about $7 billion to $8 billion to help pay for more security, as well as an increase in reconstruction work, which would mark a significant increase in the amount of money dedicated to helping Afghanistan. As opposed to Iraq, most Democratic lawmakers want the United States to increase its commitment to Afghanistan.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a report on the federal budget yesterday, saying the budget deficit will fall this year and could disappear by 2012, and the papers illustrate how one story can be covered in two strikingly different ways. The Post takes a tongue-in-cheek attitude toward the announcement (published on A11), stating right in the lead that "virtually nobody—not even top CBO officials—believes it." That's because the CBO estimates make a lot of assumptions about such things as tax cuts and the cost of war, that everyone knows won't hold up. The NYT, on the other hand, doesn't ignore the problems with the estimate, but still decided to put the story on Page One.

The NYT fronts an interesting look at what can happen when science meets the news cycle by examining the way research into the sexuality of sheep turned into some predicting it could lead to the "breeding out" (as the Sunday Times put it) of homosexuality in humans. Despite assurances to the contrary, the researchers and their university began getting tons of protests. The paper waits until nearly the end of the story to point out how researchers often have to talk about potential human applications when writing their grants or in conversations with reporters to make their work more interesting, which might be worth a deeper look since that seems to be a large part of the problem.