Analyzing the Effect of the Common Fisheries Policy on the uk’s Fishing Industry: Better With Brexit?



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Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1


Table 9 — Additional RD Model Results:

Value and Quantity of Exports





(1)

(2)

(3)















Panel One: Value of Exports

(£ million)









1983 Dummy


100.98**

-134.65**

-78.44





(48.19)

(59.14)

(70.79)

1992 Dummy


-87.35

-231.15***

-183.41**






(65.57)

(70.95)

(71.43)

2002 Dummy


-87.02

16.21

76.45





(73.08)

(68.30)

(65.43)

2013 Dummy


-41.45

95.80

-28.59





(71.09)

(73.62)

(86.13)

Observations

R-squared

Adj R-squared


Panel Two: Quantity of Exports

(thousands of tons)
1983 Dummy

66

0.949



0.942

67.76**

66

0.967


0.961

-43.81

66

0.973


0.967

-53.09





(28.61)

(31.41)

(41.26)

1992 Dummy


-9.12

-3.76

15.34





(38.92)

(37.68)

(41.63)

2002 Dummy


63.81

61.10*

74.85*





(43.48)

(36.27)

(38.14)

2013 Dummy


-7.35

-14.59

-52.17





(42.19)

(39.09)

(50.19)













Observations

66

66

66

R-squared

Adj R-squared



0.909

0.897


0.952

0.944


0.954

0.944


Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1


Figure 10 — Regression Discontinuity Panel: Trade



The dashed line in each panel references the year 1983. Panel A (top left) shows the RD graph for the total value of fish and fisheries products imports into the UK (measured in £ million) from 1950 to 2015. Panel B (top right) shows the RD graph for the quantity of fish and fisheries products imports into the UK (measured in £ per ton) from 1950 to 2015. Panel C (bottom left) shows the RD graph for the total value of UK fish and fisheries products exports (measured £ million) from 1950 to 2015. Panel D (bottom right) shows the RD graph for the quantity of UK fish and fisheries products exports (measured in £ per ton) from 1950 to 2015.

Figure 11 — Regression Discontinuity Panel: Trade Residuals


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