Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom
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e as we have (which includes observing a value of about 2.7 K for the cosmic background radiation) is the same on T2 as it is on T1 (namely, 100% in either case). Therefore, on  , e could not distinguish between T1 and T2. Yes, if we move to the reference class  specified by the only slightly more inclusive  (which places in our reference class also observer-moments that are just a tiny bit subjectively different from our own), then our evidence e will distinguish strongly between T1 and T2 (and strongly favor the former). This is so because the frequency distribution of observer-moments is strongly peaked around observer-moments that observe the true value of CBR rather than one of the alternative values that are observed only by observer-moments suffering from illusions. In the figure, if we look at the interval marked “”, we see that the proportion of area under the T1-curve in this interval that is inside the area under the smaller interval representing  is much larger than the corresponding proportion for the T2-curve. The effect is actually more extreme than is apparent from the graph, both because the graph is not drawn to scale and because there are other dimensions, apart from the observed value of CBS, on which the randomly generated observer-moments will have a relatively broad and flat distribution compared to those observer-moments that have evolved in regular ways. The regular observer-moments will tend to be clustered in the region that a theory claims to represent the properties of the actual world.
Directory: preprints preprints -> Digitally-assisted discovery and proof preprints -> Reorienting the Logic of Abduction preprints -> Supplementary Material Table 1 Download 9.31 Mb. Share with your friends:
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