Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom
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What is grounding T’s support for hM? I think it is best answered by saying not that T makes it more probable that  should exist, but rather that T makes it more probable that at least one observer-containing universe should exist. It is nonetheless true that hM makes it more probable that should exist. But this is not by itself the reason why hM is to be preferred given our knowledge of the existence of . If it were, then since the same reason operates in Case 3a, we would have to have concluded that hM were favored in that case as well. For even though it was guaranteed in Case 3a that some observer-containing universe would exist, it was not guaranteed that it would be . In Case 3a as well as in Case 3b, the existence of was made more likely by hM than by ¬hM. If this should not lead us to favor hM in Case 3a then the fact that the existence of is made more likely by hM cannot be the whole story about why hM is to be preferred in Case 3b.
So what is the whole story about this? This will become clearer as we proceed, but we can give at least the outlines now. In subsequent chapters we shall fill in important details and see some arguments for the claims we make here. Directory: preprints preprints -> Digitally-assisted discovery and proof preprints -> Reorienting the Logic of Abduction preprints -> Supplementary Material Table 1 Download 9.31 Mb. Share with your friends:
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