Anthropic Bias Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Nick Bostrom



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This means that e does not selectively favour any of the hypotheses hj that implies that some observer-moment is compatible with e.



Since this consequence is unacceptable, we must reject . Any workable reference class definition must permit reference classes to contain observer-moments that are subjectively distinguishable. The reference class definition is in this sense non-trivial.

Observer-moments that are incompatible with e can thus play a role in determining the credence of observer-moments whose total evidence is e. This point is important. To emphasize it, we will give another example (see figure 8):



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