Antigua and barbuda meteorological service



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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

V. C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

JUNE 2, 2009
Klotzbach and Gray have downgraded their hurricane season forecast

Overview

Klotzbach and Gray of the Colorado State University (CSU) released their latest forecast today June 2 for the 2009 Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30. The forecast downgrades the previous prediction by one (1) hurricane. On May 21, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its forecast for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting a total of 9 to 14 named storms of which 4 to 7 will intensify to hurricanes, including 1 to 3 becoming major hurricanes - rated at Category 3 or higher. This forecast is consistent with that of Klotzbach and Gray. However, Mark Saunders and Adam Lea of the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) differ in their forecast for the season. Instead, Saunders and Lea are predicting an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season, similar to last year.




Forecast Source

Forecast Date

Tropical Storms

Hurricanes

Major Hurricanes

NOAA

May 21, 2009

9 – 14

4 – 7

1 – 3

CSU

April 7, 2009

12

6

2

CSU

June 2, 2009

11

5

2

TSR

April 7, 2008

15

7- 8

3 - 4

59-yr Antigua Climatology1

1950 - 2008

0.6

0.4

0.2

59-yr Atlantic Climatology

1950 - 2008

10.8

6.2

2.7

30-yr Atlantic Climatology

1979 - 2008

11.8

6.4

2.6

Table 1: 2009 Hurricane Season Forecast. 1Storms passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua.
The near normal season projected is due mainly to the possibility of an El Nino episode occurring in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer, cooler than normal temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and a strong Bermuda/Azores High Pressure System. The 2008 Hurricane Season produced 16 named storms of which 8 became hurricane, including 5 major hurricanes. This was consistent with the forecasts issued by all three organization mentioned above. The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.

Dale Destin



Climatologist Ag.

iweatherreport@gmail.com


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