Antigua and barbuda meteorological service



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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

V. C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

JUNE 22, 2009
MOHC is forecasting a below normal season

Overview

The Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) is forecasting a below normal North Atlantic Hurricane Season (See table 1). According to their forecast issued June 18, the most likely number of named storms for the period June to November 2009 is 6 with a range of 3 to 9. Compared with the other forecasts issued for the season, this is an outlier; however, this group has been spot on over the past few seasons. Meanwhile, Mark Saunders and Adam Lea of the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium (TSR) have updated their forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season and have reduced the number of named storms previously forecasted. They are now expecting 11 named storms as compared with 15, which were forecast in April 2009 (See table 1). This number is consistent with all other forecasts except the one from the MOHC.



Forecast Source

Forecast Date

Tropical Storms

Hurricanes

Major Hurricanes

NOAA

May 21, 2009

9 – 14

4 – 7

1 – 3

CSU


June 2, 2009

11

5

2

April 7, 2009

12

6

2

TSR

June 4, 2009

11

5 - 6

2- 3

April 7, 2008

15

7- 8

3 - 4

MOHC (range)

June 18, 2009

6 (3 – 9)

-

-

59-yr Antigua Climatology1

1950 - 2008

0.6

0.4

0.2

59-yr Atlantic Climatology

1950 - 2008

10.8

6.2

2.7

30-yr Atlantic Climatology

1979 - 2008

11.8

6.4

2.6

Table 1: Comparison of 2009 Hurricane Season Forecasts. 1Storms passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua. Forecasts include those issued by Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC). The MOHC forecast is issued for the July–November period.
The TSR forecast has decreased sharply since early April due to a large unexpected cooling of the North Atlantic main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature and to a larger-than expected warning of the Pacific sea surface temperatures.
The 2008 Hurricane Season produced 16 named storms of which 8 became hurricane, including 5 major hurricanes. This was consistent with the forecasts issued by all four organizations mentioned above. The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.

Dale Destin



Climatologist Ag.

iweatherreport@gmail.com


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