Arkansas Tech University The Culture Wars & Political Polarization in Perspective
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Shapiro, Catherine R., David W. Brady, Richard A. Brody, and John A. Ferejohn. 1990. Linking Constituency Opinion and Senate Voting Scores: A Hybrid Explanation. Legislative Studies Quarterly 15 (4):599-621. Shapiro, Michael J. 1969. Rational Political Man: A Synthesis of Economic and Social Psychological Perspectives. American Political Science Review 63:1106-1119. Sharp, Elaine B. 1999. The Sometime Connection: Public Opinon and Social Policy. Albany, N.Y.: State University of New York Press. Shaw, Greg M. 2003. The Polls-Trends Abortion. Public Opinion Quarterly 67:407-429. Shepsle, Kenneth. 1972. The Strategy of Ambiguity, Uncertainty, and Competition. American Political Science Review 66:551-68. Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press. Stonecash, Jeffrey M. 2000. Class and Party in American Politics. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. ———. 2005. Scaring the Democrats: what's the matter with Thomas Frank's argument? The Forum 3 (3):article 4. Stonecash, Jeffrey M., Mark D. Brewer, and Mack D. Mariani. 2003. Diverging Parties: Social Change, Realignment, and Party Polarization. Edited by L. C. Dodd, Transforming American Politics. New York: Westview Press. Stonecash, Jeffrey M., Mark D. Brewer, Eric Petersen, Mary P. McGuire, and Lori Beth Way. 2000. Class and Party: Secular Realignment and the Survival of Democrats outside the South. Political Research Quarterly 53 (4):731-752. Sullivan, John, James Piereson, and George Marcus. 1978. Ideological Constraint in the Mass Public: A Methodological Critique and Some New Findings. American Journal of Political Science 22:233-249. Sunstein, Cass R., David Schkade, and Lisa M. Ellman. 2006. Are Judges Political?: An Empirical Analysis of the Federal Judiciary. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Tajfel, Henri, and John Turner. 1979. An Integrative Theory of Intergroup Conflict. In The Social Psychology if Intergroup Relations, edited by W. G. Austin and S. Worchel. Monterey, CA: Brooks-Cole. Tajfel, Horace. 1970. Experiments in intergroup discrimination. Scientific American 223:96-102. ———. 1982. Social Identity and Intergroup Relations. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. Taylor, Donald, and Fathali Moghaddam. 1994. Social Identity Theory. In Theories of Intergroup Relations: International Social Psychological Perspectives, edited by D. Taylor. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers. Tufte, Edward. 1975. Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections. American Political Science Review 69:812-26. Waldman, Paul. 2007. Religion and the Threat Effect. The American Prospect. Weber, Vin. 1993. Tactical retreat - Bill Clinton's defense budget. National Review, May 10th, 1993. Webster v. Reproductive Health Services. 1989. In United States Reports: United States Supreme Court. Wildermuth, John. 2004. Red State, Blue State: California's political map reflects the nation -- Dems capture metro area while vast interior goes Republican. San Francisco Chronicle, Sunday, November 7, 2004. Wilson, James Q. 1962. The Amateur Democrat: Club Politics in Three Cities. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Wolfe, Alan, and Andrew Kohut. 2006. Myths and Realities of Religion in Politics. In Red and Blue Nation? Characteristics and Causes of America's Polarized Politics, edited by P. S. Nivola and D. W. Brady. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institute Press. Wright, John R., and Arthur S. Goldberg. 1985. Risk and Uncertainty as Factors in the Durability of Political Coalitions. American Political Science Review 79 (3):704-18. York, Byron. 2009. For the Left, war without Bush is not war at all. Washington Examiner, August 18th, 2009. Young, Gary. 2004. Culture War Casualties : Polarization in US politics Reflects the Huge Rift that has Emerged over Individual Lifestyle and Moral Values. The Guardian. Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press. Zeller, Tom. 2004. Ideas & Trends; One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State. The New York Times, August 31, 2008, 2. 1 The 2000, 2004, and 2008 electoral maps were generated using the GIS (Geographic Information Systems) program based on U.S. Census Bureau data on these elections. 2 Toward a Bold Politics Survey. Survey by Public Interest Project. Methodology: Conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, April 5-April 8, 2004 and based on telephone interviews with a national registered likely voters (see note) sample of 1,000. National registered likely voters are registered voters who voted in the 2000 Presidential election/were ineligible/too young to vote or who didn't vote in the 2000 election but did vote in the 2002 Congressional election. Respondents were asked to assess a list of issues presidents might face in the future, including the one reported here: “The country divided into two Americas where people hold fundamentally different values about gay marriage, abortion and guns.” 3 Virginia Slims American Women’s Poll conducted by Roper, April 1974. 3880 respondents. “For [a homosexual relationship], tell me for a daughter of yours who had just finished her schooling whether you would find it acceptable, or accept it but be unhappy about it, or not accept it and have the relationship very much strained as a result?” 4 Gallup Poll, June 1977. 2000 respondents. “In general, do you think homosexuals should or should not have equal rights in terms of job opportunities?” 5 Gallup Report, April 1983. 1517 respondents. “Between now and the political conventions in 1984 there will be discussion about the qualifications of presidential candidates…If your party nominated a generally well-qualified man for president and he happened to be homosexual, would you vote for him?” 6 Los Angeles Times Poll, September 1983. 1653 respondents. “What is your attitude toward homosexuality? Do you personally approve of homosexual relations between consenting adults…or do you oppose it for everyone?” 7 Los Angeles Times Poll, September 1983. 1653 respondents. “Would you say you are very sympathetic, somewhat sympathetic, somewhat unsympathetic, or very unsympathetic to the homosexual community?” 8 Los Angeles Times Poll, September 1983. 1652 respondents. “If you had a child who told you he or she was a homosexual, what do you think your reaction would be? Would you be very upset, not very upset or not upset at all?” 9 ABC News / Washington Post Poll, March 1987. 1511 respondents. “Would you say that you are worried that [a homosexual] might give you AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome)?” 10 CBS News Poll, October 1986. 823 respondents. “Do you think there has been more discrimination against homosexual men since AIDS became a serious problem, or don’t you think the amount of discrimination against them is any different now than before?” 11 ABC News / Washington Post Poll, September 1985. “So far three-quarters of AIDS victims have been homosexual males. The rest of the victims have mainly been drug addicts or recipients of blood transfusions. Do you think that AIDS is spreading so that it is now a threat to the general public in the United States, or not?” 12 Gallup Report, July 1986. 1538 respondents. “The Supreme Court recently ruled that the Constitution does not give consenting adults the right to have private homosexual relations. Do you approve or disapprove of this ruling?” 13 ABC News Washington Post Poll, September, 1985. 1512 respondents. “Do you have a friend or someone you associate with on a regular basis who is a male homosexual?” 14 NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll, January 1986. 1598 respondents. “Do you have any friends who are homosexual?” 15 CBS News / New York Times Poll, August 1992. 656 respondents. “Do you happen to personally know someone who is gay or lesbian?” 16 Harris Poll, October 1992. 1583 respondents. “Do you have any close personal friends who are gay or lesbian, or not?” 17 The first polling question in the IPOLL database on gay marriage was asked in the General Social Survey in February, 1988. “(Do you agree or disagree?)... Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another.” 18 The first polling question in the IPOLL database on gay marriage was asked in a Los Angeles Times Poll in October, 1992. “Do you approve or disapprove of allowing openly homosexual men and women to serve in the armed forces of the United States? (If approve or disapprove, ask:) Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or (approve/disapprove) somewhat?” 19 ABC News Washington Post Poll, January 1993. 549 respondents. “Do you think people who join the military should be asked if they are homosexual, or not?” 20 Fox News / Dynamics Poll, May 2004. 900 respondents. “Do you believe gays and lesbians should be allowed to get legally married, allowed a legal partnership similar to but not called marriage, or should there be no legal recognition given to gay and lesbian relationships?” 21 Princeton Survey Research Associates / Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Political Typology Callback Poll, March 2005. 1090 respondents. “(And one last short list.)...Do you have a friend, colleague, or family member who is gay?” 22 Princeton Survey Research Associates / Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Views on Issues and Policies Related to Sexual Orientation Survey, February 2000. 2283 respondents. “(Next I'd like your opinion on some gay rights issues.)...Do you think there should or should not be...health insurance and other employee benefits, Social Security, and inheritance rights for gay and lesbian domestic partners?” 23 Gallup / CNN / USA Today Poll, July 2003. 1003 respondents. “Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would define marriage as being between a man and a woman, thus barring marriages between gay or lesbian couples?” 24 CBS News / New York Times Poll, December 2003. 1057 respondents. “Do you think homosexual relations between adults are morally wrong, or are they okay, or don't you care much either way?” 25 Los Angeles Times Poll, March 2004. 1616 respondents. “Do you favor or oppose gay couples legally adopting children? (If Favor/Oppose, ask:) Do you strongly favor/oppose gay couples adopting children or only somewhat favor/oppose gay couples adopting children?” 26 IPOLL is a database of nearly half a million polling questions from 150 polling organizations catalogued since 1935. It includes data survey results from academic, commercial and media survey organizations such as Gallup Organization, Harris Interactive, Pew Research Associates, and many more. The data come from all the surveys in the Roper Center archive that have US national adult samples or samples of registered voters, women, African Americans, or any subpopulation that constitutes a large segment of the national adult population. 27 Los Angeles Times Poll, December 1985. 2308 respondents. 28 Los Angeles Times Poll, December 1985. 2308 respondents. 29 See Appendix C for a frequency table of polling questions per year for the time series. 30 See Appendix B for a list of polls included in the GRD. 31 Statistics generated from the General Social Survey Cumulative File, 1972-2006 courtesy of the Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. 32 Generally, linear interpolation takes two data points, defined here as (xa,ya) and (xb,yb). The interpolant is given by:  at the point (x,y).
33 Models for the GSS analyses were run with and without the interpolated data points. There were no significant changes in the model coefficients, standard errors, or the goodness-of-fit-measures. 34 Gallup / USA Today Poll, July 2007. N = 1014 Respondents. “As you may know, under the current military policy, no one in the military is asked whether or not they are gay. But if they reveal that they are gay or they engage in homosexual activity, they will be discharged from the military. Do you personally think--gays should be allowed to serve openly in the military, gays should be allowed to serve under the current policy, or gays should not be allowed to serve in the military under any circumstances?” 35 Virginia Slims American Women's Poll, April 1974. 36 Note, converting the polarized four-category distributions to binary distributions doesn’t have much effect on the relative comparisons of these distributions on conflict/consensus, and if there is one it is to understate the polarization of the attribute distribution when the underling distribution is bimodal. 37 The difference in the means for the four polarized distributions and the hypothetical centralized distribution is negligible (2.67 vs. 2.5). As I argued in Chapter 3, you can have highly dispersed distributions with similar means to that of centralized distributions. While means can change as a consequence of polarization they do not necessarily do so. The direction of the change if it does change, and thus whether it indicates polarization or depolarization, is dependent on the change relative to the previous distribution. A significant mean shift to the center is polarization given a previous consensus position, while it is depolarization given a previous bimodal opinion distribution. Changes in means are not interpretable in terms of polarization/depolarization taken independent of the prior distribution. 38 The COV (coefficient of variation) model is excluded as the measure cancels out the concomitant increases in variation in the mean and standard deviation over the time series. 39 Party ID defined in to 3 categories with weak identifiers and independent leaners included with their respective parties. The middle category consists of those respondents who identified as independent with no leanings. 40 CBS/New York Times Poll. February, 2005. N = 1111. Question: “Regardless of how you usually vote, which party comes closer to sharing your view on the legal recognition of gay couples, the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?” 41 The Cumulative Data File consists of variables derived from the 1948-2004 series of biennial ("time-series") SRC/CPS National Election Studies. The American National Election Studies / Time Series Studies are collected before and after presidential (pre and post surveys) elections. The off-year elections typically only have a post-election study. The ANES Cumulative Data File is a merged data set of all the time series studies from 1948-2004. The pooled data includes variables which appear in three or more studies and consists of 44,715 cases. 42 The data is sub-setted by year to include only studies from 1970-2004 as the previous data sets had few to none of the relevant substantive variables which are necessary for the polarization analysis. Furthermore, 1970-2004 covers the relevant time period to examine the culture wars thesis. 43 The abortion question wording was changed in 1980. Previously respondents were asked when abortion should be allowed with the following response set: 1. Abortion should never be permitted. 2. Abortion should be permitted only if the life and health of the woman is in danger. 3. Abortion should be permitted if, due to personal reasons, the woman would have difficulty in caring for the child. 4. Abortion should never be forbidden, since one should not require a woman to have a child she doesn't want. The question was changed in 1980 to better represent the issue as a question of law. The new question asked when abortions should be allowed by law. The response set for the new question (used from 1980 forward) was: 1. By law, abortion should never be permitted. 2. The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger. 3. The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the woman's life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established. 4. By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. 44 See Appendix H for open-ended collapsed category codes. 45 Republican and Democrat likes and dislikes are coded consistently in the ANES time-series from 1972-2004. The codes for the open-ended responses are recorded in the master code appendix: “PARTY-CANDIDATE 1972 AND LATER.” 46 Generally, linear interpolation takes two data points, defined here as (xa,ya) and (xb,yb). The interpolant is given by: at the point (x,y).
47 Interpolated points (other than 2002, 2006): Abortion (1974), Women (1986), Jobs (1998), and Defense (1998). 48 A normal distribution, or mesokurtic distribution, has a kurtosis of zero. 49 Fiscal Years 2009 & 2010 are estimated. 50 Government spending data compiled from the U.S. Treasury’s site on Historical Debt: www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm. GDP data compiled from the data published at www.usgovernmentspending.com. 51 “Table 3.1: Outlays by Superfunction and Function: 1940--2003," in Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005 (2004), Washington, pp. 45--52 52 Some credit Regan’s aggressive foreign policy stance, the strong commitment to SDI and the defense spending build-up (walking out on arms talks over it in Iceland) and the inability of the Soviets to match it as the crucial, deciding factor in the collapse of the USSR. Others point to the structural failures of the communist system and/or the Gorbachev reforms of “glasnost” and “perestroika” in 1985 and 1987 respectively as precipitating the end of the Soviet Union. (see Figure 5.9). 53 The data for Figure 5.8 was obtained from the “Polling Report” website which collects and report polling data from the gamut of polling organizations in the United States. www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm. It is the approval and disapproval numbers for the national adult sample taken by the Gallup Organization / USA Today poll in answer to the question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?" The job approval data in Figure 5.8 is averaged by month for the entire Bush administration. The maximum number of polls in a month included in the series is seven, the minimum number is one. 54 The primitive term for Foreign Policy Period is excluded as including it creates perfect colinearity between the independent variables. 55 Gallup poll conducted by the Gallup Organization. March, 1976. N = 1,582. Question: “Do you favor or oppose this (Equal Rights) Amendment (which would give women equal rights and equal responsibilities?” 56 Harris Survey conducted by Louis Harris & Associates. April, 1975. N = 1,568. Question: “Do you tend to agree or disagree that the Equal Rights Amendment should be opposed because it would wipe out many of the laws that have given women special protection for many years? 57 Survey by National Federation of Business & Professional Women conducted by Louis Harris & Associates. November, 1979. N = 1,500. Question: “I'm going to read you some statements about various groups that oppose and support the ERA (Equal Rights Amendment). For each, please tell me whether you tend to agree or disagree.)... Advocates of the Equal Rights Amendment are mainly women's libbers who would totally change the traditional role of women.” 58 Racial & Religious Minorities & Women Poll, conducted by Louis Harris & Associates. October, 1978. N = 2456. Sample Breakdown: 1673 Whites, 783 Blacks. Question: “All in all, do you favor or oppose affirmative action programs in industry for ...blacks... provided there are no rigid quotas?” 59 Gallup Poll, conducted by the Gallup Organization. June 6-25, 2005. N = 2,264. Sample Breakdown: 807 Whites, 802 Blacks. Question: “Do you favor or oppose affirmative action programs for racial minorities?” 60 See Equation 5.14 for the OLS regression equation for these open-ended response models. 61 See Appendix H for the total response set categories and descriptions for the National Problems item from the ANES. 62 The maximum likelihood equation used for the regression models in Table 5.16 is reported in Equation 5.15. 63 The Cumulative Data File consists of variables derived from the 1948-2004 series of biennial ("time-series") SRC/CPS National Election Studies. The American National Election Studies / Time Series Studies are collected before and after presidential (pre and post surveys) elections. The off-year elections typically only have a post-election study. The ANES Cumulative Data File is a merged data set of all the time series studies from 1948-2004. The pooled data includes variables which appear in three or more studies and consists of 44,715 cases. 64 The data is sub-setted by year to include only studies from 1970-2004 as the previous data sets had few to none of the relevant substantive variables which are necessary for the polarization analysis. Furthermore, 1970-2004 covers the relevant time period to examine the culture wars thesis. 65 Seven Point Ideology Scale: 1) Extremely Liberal 2) Liberal 3) Slightly Liberal 4) Moderate; Middle of the Road 5) Slightly Conservative 6) Conservative 7) Extremely Conservative. 66 For all regression models reported in Chapter 6, the following significance standards are observed: * significant at .10 level ** significant at .05 level ***significant at .01 level 67 ABC News Poll conducted from January 16th to January 20th, 2003. N = 1,133 adult sample with a +/- 3 point margin of error. Respondents were presented with several situations where an abortion decision could be made, and asked whether they thought abortion “should be illegal” or “should be legal” in those situations. 68 Data culled from reports on House Roll Call No. 530 and Senate Roll Call No. 402. Twelve House members and two senators did not participate in the vote, and are excluded from the calculation of caucus percentage. 69 The Cumulative Data File consists of variables derived from the 1948-2004 series of biennial ("time-series") SRC/CPS National Election Studies. The American National Election Studies / Time Series Studies are collected before and after presidential (pre and post surveys) elections. The off-year elections typically only have a post-election study. The ANES Cumulative Data File is a merged data set of all the time series studies from 1948-2004. The pooled data includes variables which appear in three or more studies and consists of 44,715 cases. 70 The data is sub-setted by year to include only studies from 1970-2004 as the previous data sets had few to none of the relevant substantive variables which are necessary for the polarization analysis. Furthermore, 1970-2004 covers the relevant time period to examine the culture wars thesis. 71 Income categories in the ANES cumulative file are defined thusly: category 1 – 0 to 16th percentile, category 2 – 17 to 33rd percentile, category 3 – 34 to 67th percentile, category 4 – 68 to 95th percentile, and category 5 is the 96 to 100th percentile. 72 PID2 – 1 = Strong Democrat, 2 = Weak Democrat / Independent Leans Democrat, 3 = Independent, 4 = Weak Republican / Independent Leans Republican, 5 = Strong Republican. 73 “Seculars” are defined differently than in the Trinity College survey. Here seculars are defined based on their church attendance (religiosity), whereas the seculars in the American Religious Identification survey conducted by Trinity College defined seculars explicitly in terms of their stated religious beliefs. The ‘no religious identification’ group of individuals is subsumed within the larger group of those who never attend church. 74 The Cumulative Data File consists of variables derived from the 1948-2004 series of biennial ("time-series") SRC/CPS National Election Studies. The American National Election Studies / Time Series Studies are collected before and after presidential (pre and post surveys) elections. The off-year elections typically only have a post-election study. The ANES Cumulative Data File is a merged data set of all the time series studies from 1948-2004. The pooled data includes variables which appear in three or more studies and consists of 44,715 cases. 75 The data is sub-setted by year to include only studies from 1970-2004 as the previous data sets had few to none of the relevant substantive variables which are necessary for the polarization analysis. Furthermore, 1970-2004 covers the relevant time period to examine the culture wars thesis. 76 See Appendix G for the study years in which respondent placements, candidate placements, and party placements were collected on the relevant issues for the polarization analysis. 77 Appendix I has tables on OLS regression trend models for the distance measures for government spending & defense spending. 78 RELEASE VERSION: 20051031 (Oct 31, 2005) 79 See (Poole and Rosenthal 2001) for further description of D-W Nominate Scores Download 4.38 Mb. Share with your friends:
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