Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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March 28, 2000

I'm not sure about you, but I get some of my best sleeping done between 5 a.m. and the time my alarm goes off at 7:30. I hit the REM sleep running and come out with all kinds of good dreams. None of them, however, involve Major League Baseball holding its season opener in Japan.


Opening Day for most baseball fans is as big a deal as Christmas. But it's hard to get too excited about it this year, because you don't know which day to celebrate. Is April 3, the day that most major league teams play their first games, the real Opening Day? Or does this two-day shenanigan in Japan count? It's hard to get excited for the first pitch of the season when there have been two games on the books for nearly a week. And it's harder still to get out of bed at 5 a.m. (4 a.m. for you Cubs fans) to watch a game halfway around the world that has "EXHIBITION" stamped all over it.
I'm sure MLB will tell you this series was set up in an effort to grow the game internationally. Baseball is the greatest game in the world, and efforts to expand the market should be applauded--to an extent. It's nice to reel in new fans, but I think you cross the line when you steal Opening Day from the fans that have been supporting the game all along.
I could say I'm protesting by not watching the two Mets-Cubs contests, but the truth is, I'll be asleep.
I'm done using the soap box now, so let's get on to a few questions.
Hello BA, First of all I want to thank you guys for all the great minor league info and coverage you do. Every morning you are my shot in the arm for my baseball fix. I am a father of a minor leaguer and it helps to see his name in any of your writeups (good ones hopefully). My son's name is Scott Kirby he plays for the Brewers. Scott has had a roller coaster career to say the least. It seems he is on track for the moment. My question is, could you dig up some successful ball players that have made it to the Big Show with similar careers for comparisons to Scott's career. Thanks again for your Website and paper. Look forward to hearing from you.
Thanks

Dad
Fear not, Dad. There are several examples handy of players who have gotten off to slow starts on their pro careers and eventually reached the big leagues.


For those who might not be quite so familiar with Scott as his father is, here's a little background. He was taken in the 30th round of the 1995 draft by the Brewers and signed the following May as a draft-and-follow after attending Polk (Fla.) CC. He spent his first two seasons at Rookie-level Helena, batting .262 with 11 homers and 47 RBIs in 1997 after a .200-4-21 showing the previous season.
In 1998 at Class A Beloit, Scott hit .203 with eight homers in 359 at-bats. He seemed like a longshot at that point, but then everything clicked for him last year and he became a prospect in the Brewers' eyes by hitting .296 with 27 home runs at two Class A stops. That was enough to earn him the No. 9 spot on the Brewers Top 10 this past winter.
I spent a little time combing through the Baseball America Super Register looking for players who reached the big leagues after first spending several years at the lower levels of the minor leagues. I'm sure this isn't an all-inclusive list, but heck, the book is 702 pages long and includes over 6,300 players. As Kirby is a corner infielder, I tried to focus on corner infielders and outfielders, and leave middle infielders and catchers out.
Here's who I came up with: Cubs outfielder Roosevelt Brown, Red Sox first baseman Brian Daubach, Giants third baseman Russ Davis, Padres outfielder Al Martin and Yankees outfielder Shane Spencer.
Brown, who was drafted in the 20th round in 1993, took 5 1/2 seasons to reach Double-A. While Kirby is expected to accomplish that feat this year (after four seasons), he, like Brown, showed his power for the first time in his fourth season.
Daubach, a 17th-round pick in 1990, spent five seasons in Rookie-ball and Class A. In his fourth season, at Class A Capital City, he hit .280 with seven homers and 72 RBIs. It took him another six years to stick as a major leaguer, and I'm guessing Kirby is hoping he can move a little fast than that.
A 29th-rounder in 1988, Davis reached Double-A in his fourth season, but hit just .218-8-58 at Albany in 1991. The next year he returned to the Eastern League and hit .285 with 22 homers. He was 22 that year, the same age Kirby was last season when he broke through.
Like Daubach, Martin spent five years in Rookie-ball and Class A, meeting potential wives in cities like Sumter, S.C.; Idaho Falls; Burlington, Iowa; and Durham, N.C. An eighth-round pick in 1985, he didn't really break through as a hitter until his eighth season, when he batted .305 with 51 extra-base hits at Triple-A Buffalo.
Spencer, who was drafted in the 28th round in 1990, tops the list with six full seasons below the Double-A level. In fact, he put in more than eight years in the minor leagues before getting his first big league call. He was 24 when his power came through and he hit 29 homers at Double-A Norwich in 1996.
I've been reading in the newspaper that Glendon Rusch has apparently won the fifth-starter job for the New York Mets. But at the same time, the transactions report that Rusch was optioned to Norfolk. What's going on? Is this move related to the team playing in Japan, or something to do with jockeying for the final 25 man roster?
Thanks,

Tom
I too did a doubletake when I saw that Rusch had been sent to Norfolk just minutes after I read that he had won the fifth starter's job. But it's just a roster-spot game. By keeping Rusch off the roster until the Mets actually need to use him in a game, they gain an additional player for their first four games.


This strategy works best at the beginning of the season, though sometimes teams will send out their No. 5 starter at the all-star break or during a stretch when they have a couple of off-days and he might be skipped anyway. That's because of the Ten-Day Rule, that says any player optioned to the minor leagues must stay there 10 days, unless they are needed sooner because another player is injured and placed on the DL.
Incidentally, Rusch and I share an alma mater. He graduated from Seattle's Shorecrest High six years after I did. I met him for the first time in 1995, though, thousands of miles from Seattle, in Lynchburg, Va., at the Carolina League all-star game.
I am at a loss to understand how A.J. Hinch can look like a future Hall of Famer in the minors and fall flat on his face in the majors. Do you have any insight into that in general and Hinch in particular?
Thanks, Rob, San Jose
Hinch is hardly the first guy to tear through the minors, only to stumble upon reaching the big leagues. There are a few factors, but I think the biggest one is it's simply tougher to excel in the majors because you're playing against the best players in the world. Major league pitchers can exploit a hitter's weaknesses far more consistently than minor league hurlers can. Ballpark factors shouldn't be overlooked as well, and Hinch played his minor league ball in the California and Pacific Coast leagues, two notorious hitters' circuits. And I've never seen this mentioned in regards to Hinch, but "stage fright," for lack of a better term, could come into play with some players. There's a zillion times more pressure to succeed in the major league spotlight.
Hinch is an interesting case, because his numbers are so markedly different from the minors to the majors. He's a .333 career hitter in the minor leagues, with 35 doubles and 26 homers in 519 at-bats. In the majors he's a .225 hitter with 14 doubles and 16 homers in 542 at-bats. I suspect the real A.J. Hinch lies somewhere in between, likely closer to what he's done in the major leagues.
Despite all of Hinch's heroics with the bat as a minor leaguer, many people still viewed him as a defensive guy first prior to his big league debut. That's an amazing label given what he had done offensively in 1997 and the fact that he didn't have the arm strength then normally associated with a frontline catcher. Here's a flashback to the 1998 A's Top 10 list, on which Hinch ranked No. 4:
"Hinch hit for average and power last year, but people hardly talk about his bat. He has a knack for catching: He can call a game, work with pitchers and maintain a quiet target behind the plate. At 23, he has shown leadership skill."
Maybe not the writeup you'd expect for a guy who just hit .328 with 24 homers and 97 RBIs in his pro debut. But scouts weren't fooled into thinking he was going to be a big-time hitter, let alone a Hall of Famer. And it looks like they were right. Of course, he's still only 25 years old, so maybe we shouldn't give up on the guy just yet.



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