Ask Baseball America By James Bailey



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June 14, 2000

Hope everyone enjoyed the Justin Wayne chat yesterday afternoon. It sort of made up for the lack of a Tuesday Ask BA (of course it kind of caused the absence of the Tuesday Ask BA because instead of having the time to write the column, I had to run the chat). People still got to ask questions, I just wasn't the one to answer them. It was great to have an opportunity for people to interact with Justin like that and I think he enjoyed it, too. So thanks to John Manuel out in Omaha for lining that up.


Overall the chat went fairly well, though there was almost too much interest in it. The extra traffic once again temporarily crashed our site. We're hoping to remedy that shortly, as it happened on draft day as well. We know that can be frustrating for you, to try to log onto our site and have nothing happen. Of course if you multiply your frustration by about 50 you can imagine how we feel when it happens. Anyway, we want to make a few changes here so that won't be the case any more and maybe the next time we do a chat everyone will be able to follow along for the entire hour.
In other news, the Cardinals finally completed the Fernando Vina deal with the Brewers and we were sadly misinformed this spring when we were told the two players to be named would be early 1999 draft picks. One of them was a '99 draftee--but it was righthander Matt Parker, St. Louis' 31st-round pick. Catcher Eliezer Alfonzo, who signed with the Cardinals out of Venezuela in 1996, was the other.
Parker was 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA at Class A Peoria in 26 relief outings this season. Last year he went 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 23 games at Rookie-level Johnson City. Alfonzo, a New York-Penn League all-star last year, was hitting .309 with 16 doubles, five homers and 21 RBIs this year at Peoria.
Back on March 10 when the question was asked here I took a stab at two players and guessed righthander Josh Pearce and second baseman Covelli Crisp, based on the criteria of early picks who were eligible to be traded before June 20. If I were a Brewers fan I think I'd rather have seen the named Pearce and Crisp in the transactions column this morning, but Parker and Alfonzo aren't too bad.
As could be expected, we're seeing a lot of draft-related questions lately, so we start things off in that vein today.
The Marlins drafted Adrian Gonzalez first, which is good, however their second-round pick intrigues a lot of people more. Do you feel that Jason Stokes will sign with the Marlins and if so (a) who do you like better, Gonzalez or Stokes, and (b) do you see him moving positions and why?
Thanks,

Ian
If I were going to guess, I'd say Stokes will go to Texas in the fall. The only reason he slipped in the draft was because of money. The Marlins made it well known that they were not looking to spend bundles of cash on this year's draft. That's probably what it will take to sign Stokes. If he still feels that he's worth what he thought he was worth before draft day, he's certainly not going to want to sign.


I think it actually hurts the chances of Stokes signing to have gone to the Marlins at 40 instead of going 39 or 41 or anywhere around there. Knowing that they have already shelled out $3 million on Gonzalez makes it unlikely there's enough left in the kitty for him. He'd actually have been better off to slide to the Athletics at No. 60, the Diamondbacks at No. 69 or even the Mariners at No. 116. At least then he'd have been at the front of the line when it came to tapping into his team's draft budget.
As for the Marlins, it was a little easier to take a risk on their second-round pick knowing that their first pick was already locked up. Taking a shot on Stokes was a gamble, but one with a potentially great upside and not so much to lose. If Stokes decides that he'd really like to sign and get started on a pro career, he'll have to come down substantially on his asking price. And if he does, the Marlins wind up with the No. 1 pick as well as a player who was thought by many to be a potential No. 1 pick not long before the draft.
If Stokes does sign, I think the Marlins would be wise to play him in the outfield. He did play some outfield this spring, if only to show that he was capbable of playing out there. First base is the position many players land at when they prove they can't handle other positions, such as left or right field. It only makes sense to give him some time out there to see if indeed he can handle the outfield and let him play his way to first if necessary. And considering that Gonzalez is regarded as an excellent defensive first baseman, he'd get the nod over Stokes there anyway.
I was wondering what you thought of the Braves' draft? A lot was made of the number of picks they had in the early rounds. The biggest question here is that the Braves, being a team not to shy away from signability issues, took almost an entire starting infield (Scott Thorman, Aaron Herr, and Kelly Johnson) while Bobby Hill and Xavier Nady were still on the board. Do you think the Braves shunned these players due to the fact they have Scott Boras as their agent/advisor or is there truly a need for the Braves to have a competitive Rookie-league team?
To this extent, the Braves also neglected to draft a first baseman (Taggert Bozied) with these picks (Galarraga isn't getting any younger and a recurrence of cancer is not out of the question [knock on wood]), do you believe that the Braves feel that they have someone to fill this position in the near future (A.J. Zapp, Wes Helms) or are the Braves shunting needs in the draft with the hopes of picking up a free agent when the time comes? Also what do you think of the pitchers taken by the Braves (Adam Wainwright, Kenny Nelson, Bryan Digby, Blaine Boyer, and possibly Scott Thorman if his bat doesn't work out)?
Much has been made of the Braves' farm system, but since Chipper Jones, it doesn't seem that the Braves have drafted many major league contributors (John Rocker, Kevin Millwood and Rob Bell are the only ones that jump immediately to mind), although they have had great success internationally (Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal, Odalis Perez, Bruce Chen). With the ban on international free agent signings because of Wilson Betemit, I was thinking that this had to be a pivotal draft for the Braves, and yet they passed on more ballyhooed players to get player's who look to me more like Jacob Shumate, Jamie Arnold and Troy Cameron than people that can produce on a championship caliber team. Do you agree with this assessment or do you believe that I am probably being too harsh on players who have yet to play a professional game?
Thanks,

Paul Ponder


P.S. I did not want to bring it up but I feel almost as if this letter beats around the question without actually asking it so I guess I have to ask it: Do you believe the Braves (and other teams) intentionally avoided players that may insist on more money to keep in line with the wishes of Sandy Alderson of keeping first year player's signing bonuses in check? If so, then what is to come of the teams that do not sign these players and those who do? I believe that it will be obvious that the teams who do have a substantial advantage over those who do not, and hence kill the entire purpose of the draft.
Since 1991, when the Braves took "can't-miss" Arizona State center fielder Mike Kelly with the No. 2 pick in the draft, Atlanta has picked a grand total of three college players in the first five rounds of the draft. That’s three players in nine years (lefthander Carl Schutz, Southeastern Louisiana, 3rd round, 1993; righthander Joe Nelson, San Francisco, 4th round, 1996; righthander Matt McClendon, Florida, 5th round, 1999) and none in the first two rounds.
The Braves as a rule just don't draft college players. I think their decision to pass on Bozied, Hill and Nady had zero to do with Scott Boras and everything to do with an organizational philosophy that stresses drafting high school talent. High school players by nature are bigger risks than college players. They are three years younger and hence, in most cases, 2-3 years further from the big leagues. But only by signing a kid out of high school does an organization get to mold him into the player they want him to become from the start. The same goes for international players, and the six-month signing ban, by the way, was just for the Dominican Republic, not for all foreign signings.
From my viewpoint, I'd say the Braves are one of the teams out there that least cares about fielding a competitive team in Rookie ball. That they do is a factor of their ability to scout and sign good young players. There are so many organizations out there that stock their farm clubs with five "prospects" and 20 "fillers." In many cases the fillers are college players assigned to a level where they will be almost guaranteed to produce. Then two years later they are released when they are unable to perform at higher levels. This is not Atlanta's approach.
The Braves acknowledged on draft night that they didn't pick a lot of players that were ranked high by our magazine. But I wouldn't draw the conclusion from that that they drafted players who were unworthy of being taken in the first four rounds. (Their haul included nine players in the first four rounds.) Given what they've done over the past decade, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, especially when it comes to young pitchers.
In recent years the Braves have added Jimmy Osting, Kevin McGlinchy, Jason Marquis, Matt Belisle, Scott Sobkowiak and McClendon via the draft. Other than McGlinchy they are all yet to contribute at the major league level (though Marquis was recently called up). But that's not a bad collection of arms and even at their various minor league levels, they all have trade value should the Braves choose to address an immediate need.
As for the final question, yes, I think it was quite obvious that many teams avoided certain players because of bonus demands. And this has become prevalent enough in recent years to bring into question the validity of the draft. As much fun as it is, I think the draft has probably outlived its usefulness.
That said, however, teams are proving to be shortsighted in many situations when they pass on a player solely for monetary purposes. I think every team in retrospect would love to sign Rick Ankiel to a $2.5 million contract. And they all had a shot at him in 1997. As long as the draft is the system in place for distributing amateur talent teams are only hurting themselves to consistenly pass on premium talent because of money.
How long before draftees report to their assignments? When are assignments handed out?
Joseph Thomas
Most draftees will report to short-season leagues, which begin playing next week. In most cases teams will send college players to the Northwest and New York-Penn leagues and high school players to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast and Arizona leagues. Teams in the advanced Rookie-level Appalachian and Pioneer leagues are stocked with both high school and college players.
Some advanced college players, mostly from the larger Division I schools, will go to full-season Class A teams. Some have already been assigned to these teams. For example, Expos 17th-round pick Derrick DePriest was sent to Class A Cape Fear a few days after the draft. He's already appeared in three games for the Crocs.



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