Braun & Blank 17
No escalation in the Arctic—economic incentives prevent militarization, and there’s no impending resource war
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- Arctic States have
No escalation in the Arctic—economic incentives prevent militarization, and there’s no impending resource warDubois and Bartelet 18—Kenty Dubois, Fellow at DynaMundo, Seattle-based think tank that applies systems thinking and mathematical simulation models to complex problems, Master’s degree in International Relations, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution from Université Catholique de Louvain, Henry Bartelet, Founder and Commercial Director of DynaMundo (“The Arctic Between Hype and Reality,” The Polar Connection, January 12th, http://polarconnection.org/arctic-geopolitics/) Indeed, something is happening in the Arctic, but the transformation into a new ‘El Dorado’ has not yet crystallised. The region did not become the maritime highway, resource arena or military theatre that some were fantasising about. There are different reasons to the current development. On economic matters such as shipping and resource exploitation, geophysical conditions remain harsh. There is still a large gap between the potential of shorter sea lanes for commercial shipping and the real volumes transiting these routes. Uncertainty plays a large role as climate variability needs to be incorporated as a risk factor in competing with well-established supply chains following southern shipping routes. Moreover, it will take time before supply chains will be adjusted towards new shipping routes and a knowledge base will have to be created about Arctic environments and shipping. There are, however, factors which could increase this transition. These factors include more rapid warming of the Arctic and/or the increase of security risks on other major shipping routes such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca. With regards to the development of petroleum and natural gas resources, the fall in the price of oil in 2014 has had a large impact on new and existing projects in the Arctic. Large projects in both Russia and Alaska have been delayed as the business case of these projects has difficulty justifying the large investments needed to realise them. The main issue of Arctic resource development is the large investment needed in infrastructure and technology. Most likely, Russia and China will have the most geopolitical incentive to continue large projects in the Arctic. On militarisation, the Arctic States have indeed developed an armed presence in the region, but it is not as important as it was back in the Cold War period. Institutionalisation of cooperation between the different powers has created understanding about the interests of one another and these interests seem to be more secured by peace and stability than by confrontation. Once again, the cost of equipment able to operate in the region also plays a role. Download 124.37 Kb. Share with your friends:
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