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1174 of 1258 DOCUMENTS

The New York Times
February 3, 2007 Saturday

Late Edition - Final

The Analysis: On the 'Polarization' of Iraqis and Their 'Ready Recourse to Violence'
SECTION: Section A; Column 1; Foreign Desk; THE REACH OF WAR; Pg. 6
LENGTH: 1610 words
Following is the text of the ''key judgments'' of the new National Intelligence Estimate about Iraq's future that was released yesterday. The report, most of which remains classified, is titled ''Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead'' and is dated January 2007. Italic emphasis and parenthetical abbreviations are from the report.

Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.

If strengthened Iraqi Security Forces (I.S.F.), more loyal to the government and supported by coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq's population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin the process of political compromise necessary for longer term stability, political progress, and economic recovery.

Nevertheless, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this estimate.

The challenges confronting Iraqis are daunting, and multiple factors are driving the current trajectory of the country's security and political evolution.

Decades of subordination to Sunni political, social, and economic domination have made the Shia deeply insecure about their hold on power. This insecurity leads the Shia to mistrust U.S. efforts to reconcile Iraqi sects and reinforces their unwillingness to engage with the Sunnis on a variety of issues, including adjusting the structure of Iraq's federal system, reining in Shia militias, and easing de-Baathification.

Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state's Arab character and increase Sunni repression.

The absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation. The Kurds remain willing to participate in Iraqi state-building but reluctant to surrender any of the gains in autonomy they have achieved.

The Kurds are moving systematically to increase their control of Kirkuk to guarantee annexation of all or most of the city and province into the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) after the constitutionally mandated referendum scheduled to occur no later than 31 December 2007. Arab groups in Kirkuk continue to resist violently what they see as Kurdish encroachment.

Despite real improvements, the Iraqi Security Forces (I.S.F.) -- particularly the Iraqi police -- will be hard pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success. Sectarian divisions erode the dependability of many units, many are hampered by personnel and equipment shortfalls, and a number of Iraqi units have refused to serve outside of the areas where they were recruited.

Extremists -- most notably the Sunni jihadist group Al Qaeda in Iraq (A.Q.I.) and Shia oppositionist Jaysh al-Mahdi (J.A.M.) -- continue to act as very effective accelerators for what has become a self-sustaining inter-sectarian struggle between Shia and Sunnis.

Significant population displacement, both within Iraq and the movement of Iraqis into neighboring countries, indicates the hardening of ethno-sectarian divisions, diminishes Iraq's professional and entrepreneurial classes, and strains the capacities of the countries to which they have relocated. The U.N. estimates over a million Iraqis are now in Syria and Jordan.

The Intelligence Community judges that the term ''civil war'' does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, Al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent attacks on coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term ''civil war'' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.

Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq.

If coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.

If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the I.S.F. would be unlikely to survive as a nonsectarian national institution; neighboring countries -- invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally -- might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; A.Q.I. would attempt to use parts of the country -- particularly Al Anbar Province -- to plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion.

A number of identifiable developments could help to reverse the negative trends driving Iraq's current trajectory. They include:

Broader Sunni acceptance of the current political structure and federalism to begin to reduce one of the major sources of Iraq's instability.

Significant concessions by Shia and Kurds to create space for Sunni acceptance of federalism.

A bottom-up approach -- deputizing, resourcing, and working more directly with neighborhood watch groups and establishing grievance committees -- to help mend frayed relationships between tribal and religious groups, which have been mobilized into communal warfare over the past three years.

A key enabler for all of these steps would be stronger Iraqi leadership, which could enhance the positive impact of all the above developments.

Iraq's neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics.

Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq. Syria continues to provide safe haven for expatriate Iraqi Baathists and to take less than adequate measures to stop the flow of foreign jihadists into Iraq.

For key Sunni regimes, intense communal warfare, Shia gains in Iraq, and Iran's assertive role have heightened fears of regional instability and unrest and contributed to a growing polarization between Iran and Syria on the one hand and other Middle East governments on the other.

But traditional regional rivalries, deepening ethnic and sectarian violence in Iraq over the past year, persistent anti-Americanism in the region, anti-Shia prejudice among Arab states, and fears of being perceived by their publics as abandoning their Sunni co-religionists in Iraq have constrained Arab states' willingness to engage politically and economically with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad and led them to consider unilateral support to Sunni groups.

Turkey does not want Iraq to disintegrate and is determined to eliminate the safe haven in northern Iraq of the Kurdistan People's Congress (K.G.K., formerly P.K.K.) -- a Turkish Kurdish terrorist group.

A number of identifiable internal security and political triggering events, including sustained mass sectarian killings, assassination of major religious and political leaders, and a complete Sunni defection from the government have the potential to convulse severely Iraq's security environment. Should these events take place, they could spark an abrupt increase in communal and insurgent violence and shift Iraq's trajectory from gradual decline to rapid deterioration with grave humanitarian, political, and security consequences. Three prospective security paths might then emerge:

Chaos leading to partition. With a rapid deterioration in the capacity of Iraq's central government to function, security services and other aspects of sovereignty would collapse. Resulting widespread fighting could produce de facto partition, dividing Iraq into three mutually antagonistic parts. Collapse of this magnitude would generate fierce violence for at least several years, ranging well beyond the time frame of this estimate, before settling into a partially stable end-state.

Emergence of a Shia strongman. Instead of a disintegrating central government producing partition, a security implosion could lead Iraq's potentially most powerful group, the Shia, to assert its latent strength.

Anarchic fragmentation of power. The emergence of a checkered pattern of local control would present the greatest potential for instability, mixing extreme ethno-sectarian violence with debilitating intra-group clashes.

URL: http://www.nytimes.com
SUBJECT: RELIGION (92%); MUSLIMS & ISLAM (90%); MILITARY WEAPONS (79%); NATIONAL SECURITY (78%); ECONOMIC RECOVERY (77%); PARAMILITARY & MILITIA (76%); US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (76%); REBELLIONS & INSURGENCIES (76%); REGIONAL & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS (75%); REFERENDUMS (50%) United States International Relations; United States Armament and Defense; Shiite Muslims; Sunni Muslims
PERSON: George W (Pres) Bush
GEOGRAPHIC: IRAQ (99%); UNITED STATES (92%) Iraq
LOAD-DATE: February 3, 2007
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: Photo: Iraqis seizing a house during a battle with Shiite militants. A new assessment asks if the forces have the skills to defeat the militias. (Photo by Qassem Zein/Agence France-Presse -- Getty Images)
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Text
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper

Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company

1175 of 1258 DOCUMENTS

The New York Times
February 2, 2007 Friday

Late Edition - Final

BYLINE: By KATHRYN SHATTUCK
SECTION: Section E; PT1; Column 6; Movies, Performing Arts/Weekend Desk; WHAT'S ON TONIGHT; Pg. 30
LENGTH: 426 words
10 P.M. (Showtime) DREAM CRUISE -- Don't bite the hand that feeds you: Norio Tsuruta, the mind behind ''Ringu O'' and ''Premonition,'' directs this ''Masters of Horror'' season finale about an American lawyer (Daniel Gillies) working in Tokyo who, though he is terrified of the ocean, takes a pleasure trip with an esteemed client (Ryo Ishibashi) and the client's wife (Yoshino Kimura, above, with Mr. Gillies) -- whom he secretly loves.8 P.M. (National Geographic) THE DOG WHISPERER -- The singer Patti LaBelle gets some advice from Cesar Millan about soothing the nerves of her watchdog, Nasir, who does his job just a little too well.8 P.M. (Speed) TWO GUYS GO TO P.R.I. -- Sam Memmolo and Dave McBride sort through the products, services and technology at the 19th Annual Performance Racing Industry Trade Show in Orlando, Fla.8:15 P.M. (IFC) AMORES PERROS (2000). Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu intertwines three seemingly disparate stories from Mexico City -- about a dogfight entrepreneur (Gael Garcia Bernal, above) trying to raise enough money to run away with his brother's wife; a middle-aged man (Alvaro Guerrero) who leaves his wife and daughter for a spokesmodel; and a revolutionary turned assassin (Emilio Echevarria), now living on the streets -- and resolves them all with an astonishing car crash.9 P.M. (CBS) SUPER BOWL'S GREATEST COMMERCIALS 2007 -- Big bangs for the bucks: the Top 15 Super Bowl commercials of all time test their might against Mean Joe Green's 1980 Coca-Cola spot, which has been voted champion of this annual special for the past five years. Jim Nantz and Daisy Fuentes do the countdown honors; viewers can vote online for their favorite commercial in the special's final half hour.9 P.M. (Fox) TRADING SPOUSES: MEET YOUR NEW MOMMY -- What do Julie Chase, a surly saddle-maker from Oregon, and Judy Lane, a San Diego professional and one half of a same-sex couple, have in common?

Apparently not a lot. 9 P.M. (Animal Planet) MS. ADVENTURE -- Bookworms? Social butterflies? Rachel Reenstra explores the dynamics of group-oriented animals.9 P.M. (USA) MONK -- Blah blah blah blah blah. A radio shock-jock is a suspect in the death of his wife, but he has the perfect alibi: he was on the air.9:30 P.M. (CMT) CMT COMEDY STAGE -- Melissa Peterman (left) of ''Reba'' is host of this new stand-up comedy series, taped at the Belcourt Theater in Nashville and featuring comedians like Etta May, Vic Henley and Killer Beaz as well as some rising stars. First up: Greg Hahn, John Wesley Austin and Jon Reep. KATHRYN SHATTUCK

URL: http://www.nytimes.com
SUBJECT: TELEVISION PROGRAMMING (78%); NETWORK TELEVISION (77%); CELEBRITIES (74%); SPORTS MARKETING (67%); ALIBI (60%); TRADE SHOWS (52%); GAYS & LESBIANS (50%); MISC LEATHER GOODS MFG (50%); VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS (72%); SPORTS & RECREATION EVENTS (87%); SINGERS & MUSICIANS (69%) Terms not available from NYTimes
COMPANY: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC SOCIETY (57%); NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE (57%); COCA-COLA CO (53%)
TICKER: KO (NYSE) (53%)
INDUSTRY: NAICS312111 SOFT DRINK MANUFACTURING (53%); SIC2086 BOTTLED & CANNED SOFT DRINKS & CARBONATED WATER (53%)
GEOGRAPHIC: ORLANDO, FLORIDA, USA (79%); TOKYO, JAPAN (72%) FLORIDA, USA (79%) UNITED STATES (79%); JAPAN (72%); MEXICO (70%)
LOAD-DATE: February 2, 2007
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
GRAPHIC: Photos (Photo by Showtime Networks)

(Photo by Lions Gate Films)

(Photo by CMT)
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Schedule
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper

Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company

1176 of 1258 DOCUMENTS

The New York Times
February 2, 2007 Friday

Late Edition - Final

Paid Notice: Deaths KAVANAGH, ROGER P. III
SECTION: Section C; Column 1; Classified; Pg. 11
LENGTH: 227 words
KAVANAGH--Roger P. III, president and chief executive officer of Intermarine, a New Orleans shipping company, died Monday of cancer at his home in Metairie. He was 54. Mr. Kavanagh was born in Greensboro, NC, and graduated from Princeton University in 1975. Choosing a career in ocean shipping, he decided to concentrate on transporting complex industrial equipment such as refinery components, power plants and other unusually large items. After settling in New Orleans, he founded Intermarine in 1990 to provide specialized breakbulk project transportation. Now one of New Orleans' largest privately held companies, it also has offices in Houston, Shanghai, Buenos Aires and Caracas, Venezuela. Mr. Kavanagh also was a past president of Transoceanic Shipping Company and Gulfship Marine. In 1996, he received the Entrepreneur of the Year Award from the accounting and consulting firm Ernst & Young. In October 2006 the Journal of Commerce awarded him its Lifetime Leadership and Achievement Award. Survivors include his wife, Danielle Haynes Kavanagh; two sons, Zachary Pierce and Dylan Michael Kavanagh; a daughter, Sophie Jeanette Kavanagh; and a brother, Basil John Kavanagh. A Mass will be said Saturday, 2 pm at St. Patrick Catholic Church, 724 Camp St., New Orleans. Visitation will begin at noon. Lake Lawn Metairie Funeral Home is in charge of services.
URL: http://www.nytimes.com
SUBJECT: DEATHS & OBITUARIES (92%); DEATHS (90%); MARINE SHIPPING (90%); ENTREPRENEURSHIP (78%); INDUSTRY AWARDS (76%); CONSULTING SERVICES (75%); PRIVATELY HELD COMPANIES (73%); ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS (71%); ACCOUNTING & AUDITING FIRMS (68%); AWARDS & PRIZES (68%); CHRISTIANS & CHRISTIANITY (50%); CATHOLICS & CATHOLICISM (70%) Terms not available from NYTimes
COMPANY: ERNST & YOUNG (56%); PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS (58%); TRANSOCEANIC SHIPPING CO INC (70%)
ORGANIZATION: PRINCETON UNIVERSITY (58%)
GEOGRAPHIC: NEW ORLEANS, LA, USA (94%) LOUISIANA, USA (94%); NORTH CAROLINA, USA (92%) UNITED STATES (94%); VENEZUELA (79%)
LOAD-DATE: February 2, 2007
LANGUAGE: ENGLISH
DOCUMENT-TYPE: Paid Death Notice
PUBLICATION-TYPE: Newspaper

Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company

1177 of 1258 DOCUMENTS

The New York Times
February 1, 2007 Thursday

Late Edition - Final

Hey, Sleepy, Want to Buy a Good Nap?
BYLINE: By NATASHA SINGER
SECTION: Section G; Column 1; Thursday Styles; SKIN DEEP; Pg. 3
LENGTH: 1574 words
ALEXIUS OTTO, a junior at Hunter College in Manhattan, has a perfectly good bed in his apartment in the East Village. But twice over the last month he has paid to take short snoozes at Yelo, a new salon on West 57th Street that sells anxious New Yorkers the promise of a brief but cocooning sleep.

Yelo consists of seven private chambers that can be rented for 20- to 40-minute naps. Each hexagonal pod has a beige leather recliner, dimmed lighting, a soporific soundtrack and a blanket of Nepalese cashmere. Clients may also book reflexology treatments, designed to lull the body to sleep, for their hands or feet starting at $65.

On a recent Thursday, Mr. Otto lounged on a bench in Yelo's lobby, waiting for a sleeping pod to become available. He was hoping that a nap in a cubicle far from the distractions of home would help balance his chaotic college life. He often forgoes sleep in favor of studying, meeting friends and looking for part-time work, he said.

''I'm going out tonight to meet someone about a job,'' said Mr. Otto, who was visiting a friend nearby and had dropped in for a 20-minute nap. Cost: $12. ''The nap will help refocus me.''

Sleep is the new bottled water. Although it can be had free, it is increasingly being marketed as an upscale amenity. Nationwide, sales of prescription sleeping medications reached about $3 billion in the first nine months of last year, according to IMS Health, a healthcare research firm. That does not include the more than $20 billion spent on nocturnal accouterments like pillowtop mattresses, adjustable beds, hypoallergenic pillows, white-noise machines and monogrammed cashmere pajamas.

And now, at a time when spas are treating everything from acne to smoking addiction, sleep is becoming a province of the wellness industry. Spa Finder, a company that compiles spa directories and publishes Luxury Spa Finder magazine, is forecasting sleep as a top spa trend for 2007.

''More clients are talking about it and more spas are offering treatments,'' said Susie Ellis, the president of Spa Finder. ''We are starting to see some spas doing sleep medicine or sleep education programs while others are creating sleep environments with enhanced bedding and wake-up systems that don't involve loud alarm clocks.''

But do Americans truly need more sleep? An often-quoted estimate from the National Center on Sleep Disorders Research of the National Institutes of Health said that up to 70 million Americans -- almost one out of three adults -- have some kind of sleep problem.

But the Center for the Advancement of Health, a nonprofit group in Washington that advocates using science as a basis for making health decisions, has criticized the statistic in its newsletter, saying that it is based more on extrapolation than on hard epidemiological data.

Jessie Gruman, the president of the center, likened the occasional sleepless night to adolescence, menopause and balding, calling them all ''normal human conditions that have become medicalized.''

''Now when people can't sleep for a couple of nights, they think they are part of a national sleep epidemic and there should be something to fix it,'' Ms. Gruman said. ''You can buy sexual arousal, a new shape for your face, a skinnier silhouette, so why shouldn't you be able to buy sleep?''

According to TNS Media Intelligence, pharmaceutical companies spent almost $362 million in the first nine months of last year on advertisements for the most popular sleeping pills, marketing the idea that interrupted sleep or the lack of instantaneous sleep are alarming conditions that require intervention.

Sleep is the top concern among her clientele of hypercompetitive stockbrokers, time-pressed mothers and overworked students, said Abby Fazio, the chief pharmacist and an owner of New London Pharmacy on Eighth Avenue in Chelsea.

''The No. 1 question I get is: 'How can I fall asleep without a prescription?' '' said Ms. Fazio, who counsels clients in a small frosted-glass room behind shelves stocked with homeopathic remedies. ''Back when I started working here as a student in the 1970s, only the elderly were on sleeping aids, but now it's everybody ages 25 to 40.''

There are no end of products to treat self-diagnosed sleep problems. Ms. Fazio recommends nonprescription melatonin pills as well as herbal items that contain lavender or chamomile and are meant to induce calm before bedtime, leading to a more restful sleep, she said.

Well-known cosmetics and toiletry brands have also starting selling sleep. Dove has introduced Calming Night, a line of honey-infused products like soap and body wash. And Boots, the brand from the British chemist that Target sells, has created Sleep, an aromatherapy line that includes a lavender bath milk and a balm to be rubbed on the hands or temples.

But such products may provide more of a Proustian experience than quantifiably improved sleep.

''If your grandmother used lavender and you associate it with feeling safe, calm, loved and ready to go to sleep, then a lavender product will be fantastic for you,'' said Sandra Cox, a formulation scientist at Boots. ''But proving how the essential oils work on the brain is very difficult to do in clinical studies.''

Spas, too, have found a growing market.

Canyon Ranch was a pioneer in the field, introducing a sleep program in 1995. The company's spas in Tucson and Lenox, Mass., offer work-ups with a doctor to determine the cause of sleep disturbances. Treatments include therapy to change sleep patterns, and breathing, meditation or visualization exercises to help reduce anxiety. The spas also offer treatments like aromatherapy massages.

''Counting sheep works for some people, lavender works for other people, and other people respond to breathing techniques,'' said Dr. Karen Koffler, a specialist in integrative medicine who is the medical director at Canyon Ranch Living, Miami Beach, a residential property scheduled to open later this year. ''The thing is to find the method that works for you.''

Other spas concentrate on nighttime pampering.

Lake Austin Spa Resort, for example, offers a ''Texas Starry Night'' treatment, an evening massage using lavender oil. Tracy York, the general manager, said the spa is developing a facial to be called ''Night Night'' and is considering issuing clients chamomile teabags to put over their eyes before sleep or aromatherapy ''sleep patches'' for the skin.

And now, for urbanites unable to travel to a remote lakeside spa for beauty sleep, there is the Yelo salon in Midtown where a reflexology treatment for the hands followed by a 20-minute nap costs $77.

Just don't call it a sleep spa.

''It's a corporate wellness center,'' said Nicolas Ronco, the entrepreneur who opened Yelo in early January. ''For people who are overstressed and overworked, for lawyers or brokers who abuse themselves, a power nap is a way to recharge naturally without caffeine.''

Yelo is designed for the harried, BlackBerry-toting, Bluetooth-connected executive in search of high-tech hibernation. It is not the first place where an urban animal can cuddle up and doze off. In Manhattan, a sleep salon called MetroNaps, with chairs encased in spherical hoods, opened in the Empire State Building in 2004, followed by a second location downtown. Some offices also provide places for employees to doze off.

On Yelo's Web site, heloyelo.com, and in its salon window, a display charts the minutes until the next ''YeloCab'' (napping booth) is available. Clients pay for a time slot and are then escorted to a private pod for a relaxation treatment or a quick nap.

Inside the pods, clients can electronically adjust the angle of the leather recliners; Mr. Ronco recommended raising the leg rest above the head to slow one's heart rate. When time runs out, ceiling lights gradually brighten, an awakening prompt meant to mimic dawn.

Mr. Ronco predicted that Yelo would appeal to commuters who want to stay in Manhattan for a late dinner and to club-goers seeking respite before a night out.

''I see 25 Yelo centers in New York, and then in every crazy low-quality-of-life city where people lack space,'' Mr. Ronco said. ''I see this in airports, malls, corporate offices and train stations.''

But are naps the best way for the sleep-challenged to catch up?

Dr. William C. Dement, the founder of the Stanford University sleep research center, thinks so, recommending them as a way to treat sleep deprivation, according to his book ''The Promise of Sleep.''

Dr. Gerard T. Lombardo, the director of the sleep center at New York Methodist Hospital in Brooklyn, however, counsels against naps because they may disrupt the normal nighttime sleep cycle. Daytime exercise would be a better way to improve sleep, he said.

Dr. Koffler of Canyon Ranch cautioned that people beset by chronic sleep problems should see a doctor. For those who have the occasional sleepless night and are seeking relaxation, though, a salon nap or a massage could be soothing, she said.

''If it allows someone to move from a busy outer life to a calm inner one, I'm all for it,'' Dr. Koffler said.

Ms. Gruman of the Center for the Advancement of Health said the idea of paying for a nap amounts to ''cognitive dissonance.''

''I can't believe people think there is magic in the pods or the cashmere blanket,'' Ms. Gruman said. ''But maybe they think they are going to get better sleep if they spend a lot of money.''

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