Cards Are On The Table
By Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
lragir.am - 13/12/2014
Armenia has humbly and stupidly entered a so-called Eurasian project,
actually becoming Russia's vassal but this has not resolved even the most general problems.
Russia's economic collapse has made this initiative meaningless, and all the participants of the project, or rather Russia's vassals have realized that they have to cope with this disaster individually. There is not just a debate but the scandalous understanding of how capable the Armenian elite are to manage the country, whether the Armenian society is capable of political thinking. There is an obvious fuss which must end in fundamental solutions.
However, a more credible explanation of this fuss is the domestic interests in Armenia. The political fight in Armenia is taking a dangerous and unpredictable course which has caused a big interest abroad among political, diplomatic and analytical circles. It is believed that future processes in the South Caucasus and Russia's role in the region will depend greatly on the results of parliamentary elections in Armenia.
These expectations are not quite adequate and do not express the real processes. These expectations are based on the thesis that the situation and generally the political situation in Armenia is not stationary and the country cannot be listed among developed societies.
This increases Moscow's interest in what is happening. Moscow is looking for ways of affecting the outcome of the election, and apparently some political strategists among whom there are a lot of sincere friends of Armenia have found nothing but rendering NATO a key issue in the arrangement of forces and political scramble in Armenia, which apparently was enabled by the stakeholders in Yerevan.
In addition, not the virtual field of internet has been chosen for this discussion but a specific geographical area - Moscow. However, while the issue of controversies between the government and the actual opposition was observed in this "field" as a serious struggle of principles, what surprises is the willingness with which the two political groups accepted the rules or structure of discussion of their struggle.
However, if Serzh Sargsyan did not react to this trick of political strategists, despite enjoying Moscow's support, his opponents saw those developments rather dangerous for them and attacked, fearing oblivion, evidence to which is rapid decline of the opposition's rating.
This moment is interesting in the sense that the cards are on the table, and the Americans, the "anthological opponents", have been demonstrated who is with who and where is headed for.
Of course, the pro-Atlantic and pro-American self-sufficiency of both Serzh Sargsyan and opposition leaders arouses as much doubt as their ability to do politics but obviously Serzh Sargsyan has turned an alternative pro-Western politician or rather a politician who has no alternative, and he has consciously accepted the game which is useful for him.
At last, there is "officially" an agent of Atlantism in the Armenian reality or, in fact, an "agent but not Atlantist". The artificially grown complementary "Atlantist" is needed by others, especially likely candidates for the post of president.
However, in this situation it is necessary to remember and mention everyone who has visited NATO headquarters and Pentagon, seeking for assistance in these two "sacral" institutions. Levon Ter-Petrosyan became an outsider in the Atlantic direction of the policy of Armenia in the recent years though all this is artificial and adjusted to external requirements and interests.
Despite his "new" relations with the Americans Serzh Sargsyan will remain the pro-Russian field while Ter-Petrosyan is doomed to the absolutely "pro-American" one. The question occurs whether the actual and actualized Armenian politicians are capable of being "Atlantists", "Eurasianists", "Europists" and other similar things.
Will Russia benefit from this game situation and in what perspective?
It turns out that Russia is after clarity, predictability and one-dimensionality in Armenia and is making efforts towards creating an Atlantist party, bidding on quite unpopular tricks. However, the game may soon transform to a determinate and stationary situation.
Obviously, the Americans are bidding on neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor Levon Ter-Petrosyan. They are rather odious individuals bound to most unpleasant and unacceptable circumstances with innumerable chains and deals.
It is time to understand that in reality the whole political elite of Armenia has been left out of global politics and cannot be perceived as a partner by world centers. This concerns not only the political leadership but also the entire political class, business circles, administration which are perceived as servicing politicians without any stance.
Nevertheless, though Serzh Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan are political opponents, there are no grounds to claim that they pursue different goals. They are the leaders of two groups which are after power and are perceived by Americans as such.
At present, after some intense developments in domestic controversy the United States concluded that it is necessary to work with the group that will come to government without the opposition's obvious and strong support. Now the United States cannot see an "ideal" political group in Armenia that would be able to combine pro-Americanism or closer cooperation with the United States with respect for democratic norms.
Now the United States is considering Raffi Hovhanisyan as a priority partner in the domestic field of Armenia whose preferences and objectives are rather speculative and demagogic.
Hence, the actual politicians of Armenia who have more realistic ambitions did not stand the pace and rhythm of the political struggle and obviously felt the risks that were facing them in the domestic fight and decided to use foreign political resources for clarification inside the team.
Furthermore, even the traditional "cleanup" took place because in the existing situation even such a proven resource as compromising materials is not effective in the country or rather the main compromising material is the geopolitical bias. It still remains something absurd because the geopolitical preferences of these politicians are but an invented thesis. Those attempts to put everything in its place will not lead anywhere and
are the result of confusion and lack of confidence.
The international financial organizations started helping Armenia, and
apparently not only in keeping the exchange rate of the currency. The real economy is concerned where the West will try to demonstrate Russia's incapacity to provide assistance to Armenia.
In the situation where Russia has appeared it becomes more dangerous and capable of nasty sabotages and there have already been warnings.
However, it is possible to overcome this state of dementia of our country only by way of running serious risks.
Those risks might signal to the West that Armenia as a sovereign state is not dead. The international financial organizations must make sure that their loans are repaid but this is not the key issue. The West would like to benefit from the existing situation in Eastern Europe to eliminate this Eurasian project.
Armenia has an important role to play in this game, and it is to carry out certain objectives. If the Armenian entrepreneurs understand how detrimental their situation and how hopeless the Russian market is, they must think about and make up their mind on entering the Western market.