Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files
NC Frontline: Harms – Iran 88
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- 1NC Frontline: Harms – Iran 89
- 2NC Extension Harms: 1 “Harm scenarios contradict” 90
- 2NC Extension Harms: 2 “No More Ties to Iran” 91
1NC Frontline: Harms – Iran 881) Their harm scenarios negate each other. If the Venezuelan economy is in shambles, then Venezuela won’t have any money to support Iran’s nuclear program. If the Venezuelan economy is working, then the government is already reforming and solving democracy. Either way, the plan is not necessary. 2) The new government will not continue an anti-American foreign policy because that was a personal deal between Chavez and Iran. SULLIVAN, 13 [Mark, Specialist in Latin American Affairs with Congressional Research Service; “Hugo Chávez’s Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations,” 4/09, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf] In terms of Venezuela’s foreign policy, observers who believe that Maduro will win the election maintain that there would be continuity with the policy under President Chávez, especially since Maduro served as his Foreign Minister for more than six years. Many see Venezuela’s strong support for Cuba continuing under a Maduro presidency, although some analysts contend that a difficult economic situation in Venezuela could result in a diminishment of that support. Some observers also contend that without Chávez at the helm, Venezuela’s role as a regional power could begin to wane as well as its relations with Iran. Venezuela’s strengthening of relations with Iran in recent years is viewed by many analysts as being driven by the personal relationship between Chávez and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 1NC Frontline: Harms – Iran 893) Iran is willing to negotiate and has agreed to strict monitoring of its nuclear program so there is no risk of rapid proliferation or war MIDDLE EAST MONITOR, 13 [Dr. Daud Abdullah; “A Dangerous Delusion – Why the West is Wrong About Nuclear Iran,” 4/22; http://www.middleeastmonitor.com/media-review/book-review/5800-a-dangerous-delusion-why-the-west-is-wrong-about-nuclear-iran] At the crucial negotiations, which took place in Paris in the spring of 2005, the Iranians offered to subject their facilities to improved external inspection and remain bound by the NPT. Indeed, they also offered guarantees to ensure that they would not divert their programme for military use. Having spurned these offers, the authors contend that the west - the EU3 and the US - were clearly not interested in devising "objective guarantees that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes." Peter Jenkins, the former British ambassador to the IAEA during this crucial period conceded that, "With hindsight, that offer should have been snapped up. It wasn't because our objective was to put a stop to all enrichment in Iran." Acting in apparent bad-faith, Britain and France persuaded the IAEA's Board to adopt a resolution in September 2005 declaring Iran to be in 'non-compliance'; a phrase which obliged the Agency to refer the matter to the Security Council. That step was taken in March 2006. The move was extremely dubious and questioned by ElBaradei. Since 31 July 2006, the Security Council passed six Chapter VII resolutions against Iran. Such steps, the authors argue, should only be taken when there is a 'threat to the peace', which merit action by the Council 'to maintain or restore international peace and security.' Yet two months prior, ElBaradei told the Monterey Institute of International Studies; "Our assessment is that there is no imminent threat...there is no clear and present danger." Given the comprehensive sanctions regime that has been imposed on Iran, Oborne and Morrison hold the US and its allies wholly responsible for the resultant 'appalling' suffering of the Iranian people. The sanctions were engineered in the US Congress at the behest of the pro-Israel lobby to eliminate Iran from the international banking system and make it incapable of paying for life-saving medicine. 2NC Extension Harms: #1 “Harm scenarios contradict” 901) Extend the 1NC #1 that their harm scenarios contradict and take each other out. If the Venezuelan government is in shambles because of Chavez’ mismanagement, then they won’t have the funding or resources necessary to support Iranian nuclear development. Two poor countries combining together would not be able to produce an expensive and effective weapons development program. Or, if the Venezuelan government and economy are working, then the country is stable and there is no need to reform because democracy is already taking root. The plan cannot solve for both of these advantages and contradictions mean you should default to our consistent evidence. 2NC Extension Harms: #2 “No More Ties to Iran” 911) Venezuela is not working with Iran anymore because the new government does not have the personal ties that Chavez had. Their evidence all assumes the old government, and they have no proof that Venezuela will continue supporting terrorism even if they had in the past. Extend our 1NC SULLIVAN evidence. 2) The new government in Venezuela will not have the political will to continue Chavez’s policies. BROOKES, 13 [Peter, Heritage Foundation senior fellow and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense; “Freedom May Flower After Chavez's Death,” 03/08, http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2013/3/freedom-may-flower-after-chavezs-death] Without a doubt, the death of “El Comandante” is an enormous blow to the socialist, authoritarian “Bolivarian” revolution he founded. The movement will find it hard to replace the fiery and charismatic Chavez, which will have an effect at home and abroad. Under a new leader, Venezuela might move beyond its repressive politics and institute a true democracy. It might also gain the free markets and economic vitality the people of Venezuela certainly deserve. Internationally, Chavez will no longer be the head cheerleader for the radical Latin American left; the end of the anti-U.S. league following that Chavez formed (and largely bankrolled) in Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia and Cuba is possible. Not only has Chavez kept Cuba’s Castro brothers on economic life-support with billions of dollars in annual aid, he’s also helped the re-rise of Nicaragua’s leftist, (Cold War) retread president, Daniel Ortega. A new government in Caracas could also lead to removing the welcome mat for Tehran in Latin America, where Venezuela has been aiding Iran to gain a foothold and circumvent international economic sanctions. 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