China do the plan cp ddi 2011 1 table of contents

China has big plans for space program

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China has big plans for space program

Pallavi Aiyer, China Correspondent at The Hindu, 6/30/06, Asia Times, “Rare glimpse of China's space program”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HF30Ad01.html

Regardless of US suspicions, China says it is on track to achieve its goals of a space walk by 2008, docking of flight vehicles in orbit by 2012 and a manned spaced nation not long after that. Chinese media recently reported that the country's first lunar orbiter, named "Chang'e I", is on schedule for launch in 2007. The moon-orbiting project is the first step in China's larger lunar exploration program that went into operation in 2004. The orbiter is expected to be followed by a remote-controlled lunar rover that will perform experiments and send data back to Earth. In the third phase, a module will drill out a chunk of the moon and bring it back for analysis. The professed aim is to have all three phases complete by 2017, when a manned lunar-probe mission will be considered. It's an ambitious program, but China is not alone in thinking big on space. In China's immediate neighborhood, India and Japan are also planning an eventful decade of space exploration. India will by 2008 launch Chandranarayaan-1, a robotic spaceship headed for the moon. In Japan, robotic probe SELENE (Selenological and Engineering Explorer) is also slated to visit the moon before 2010. Space exploration is certain to expand beyond the exclusive club of countries that have dominated it thus far. In the "space race" of the 1960s when US rocket scientist Wernher von Braun was asked what he expected to find on the moon, he jokingly replied, "Russians."
China Can Do Space Generally
China’s space program is comprehensive

Ashley J. Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues, 10/1/08, Carnegie Endowment, “China’s Space Capabilities and U.S. Security Interests”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2008/10/01/china-s-space-capabilities-and-u.s.-security-interests/68r

China’s space program writ large is marked by three distinguishing characteristics. First, it is comprehensive. Unlike some other developing countries which are involved in a few discrete activities, China is a major space-faring nation pursuing endeavors that span the entire spectrum. Today, almost fifty years after China formulated its first space development plans, Beijing is deeply involved in space science; it possesses an inclusive space research, development and manufacturing base that produces everything from launch vehicles to satellites; it has a large ground segment that oversees space launches and includes an extensive telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C) network; it possesses a diverse set of space launch vehicles, currently consisting of some ten variants of four basic Long March boosters, now also complemented by newer mobile launch systems; it owns a diverse set of orbital assets, primarily indigenous satellites that provide communications, meteorological, navigation and positioning, remote sensing, reconnaissance, and electronic intelligence services; it has recently embarked on a manned space program that besides being a source of great national pride also represents its most difficult space endeavor, one that promises however to push Beijing to the limits of technology innovation; it has an emerging space services industry that is aimed at offering hardware, launch services, and space derived products to domestic and international clients; and, finally, China is engaged increasingly in various activities involving international collaboration, be they scientific, technical, or diplomatic. China’s space presence is thus marked by the possession of an end-to-end capability. While Beijing still lags behind advanced space powers such as the United States, Russia, and key European states, it nonetheless has laid the foundations for a major presence in space.

Asteroid/Near Earth Objects Tracking
China has asteroid tracking capabilities

Richard Stone, Asia News Editor of Science, 3/7/08, the international weekly magazine, “NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS: Preparing for Doomsday”, http://www.fr.sott.net/articles/show/150527-NEAR-EARTH-OBJECTS-Preparing-for-Doomsday

On a ridge in this quiet, dark corner of southeastern China, about 100 kilometers northwest of Nanjing, XuYi's new 1-meter telescope espies a few dozen asteroids on a good night. Most are known to science. But since China's first telescope dedicated to asteroid detection saw first light early last year, Zhao's team has discovered more than 300 asteroids, including a near-Earth object (NEO), the class of asteroids and comets that could smash into our planet, if fate would have it. China's asteroid hunters are the latest participants in a painstaking global effort to catalog NEOs. Close encounters with asteroids in recent years--and comet Shoemaker-Levy's spectacular death plunge into Jupiter in 1994--have spurred efforts to find the riskiest NEOs before they blindside us. Tracking potentially hazardous objects--NEOs passing within 0.05 astronomical units, or 7.5 million kilometers, of Earth's orbit--is essential for any attempt to deflect an incoming rock.
China substantially contributes to asteroid detection

Haibin Zhao, Professor at Fudan University School of Information Science and Engineering, Jisheng Yao, Purple Mountain Astronomical Observatory Staff, Hao Lu, Purple Mountain Observatory Staff, 2008, International Astronomical Union, China NEO Survey Telescope and its preliminary achievement”, http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FIAU%2FIAU3_S248%2FS1743921308020164a.pdf&code=c86eeb3538ac75eee332fec41a70bb64

The rate of asteroid discoveries shows an exponential growth. After astronomer Guiseppe Piazzi of Palermo, Sicily, discovered the ﬁrst asteroid on January 1, 1801, the number of new ﬁnds per year increased to ﬁve by 1865, 15 per year by 1895, 25 by 1910 and up to about 40 by 1930. By the end of September of 2007, the number of numbered asteroids was more than 160,000 including about 800 Potential Hazardous Asteroids (PHA). (see http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/) According to NASA’s report (NASA 2007), the further objectives of NEO Survey Program are to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of NEO equal to or larger than 140 meters in diameter with a perihelion distance of less than 1.3 AU from the Sun, achieving 90% completion of the survey within 15 years after enactment of the NASA Authorization Act of 2005. Chinese scientists have contributed substantially to the ﬁeld of asteroid survey and related aspects. In the early 1960s, Purple Mountain Observatory began observations of asteroids and found over 130 new numbered asteroids during the following decades. The Schmidt CCD Asteroid Program (SCAP) of Beijing Astronomical Observatory started in 1995 and found 575 asteroids in several years (Ma, Zhao & Yao 2007).
Chinese asteroid detection methods are efficient

In October 2006, the 1.0/1.2 m NEOST equipped with a 4096 ×4096 SI CCD detector was installed and began the test observations. Due to the small focal ratio and the high quantum eﬃciency (QE) of the CCD detector, the observational system can reach B=22.5 with a 40 s exposure, which makes the asteroid survey very eﬃcient. About 22 Gb of raw image data, corresponding to the sky coverage of 2700 deg2 , are produced each good observing night providing on average more than 2000 asteroid positions. To reduce the observational data and to report the asteroid positions to Minor Planet Center (MPC) in a timely fashion is a challenge to us. We have established a set processing software to reduce the data with good precision (Table1 where D29 is the station code for NEOST).

Asteroid/Near Earth Objects Tracking
China has telescopes to locate asteroids

Wei Long, reporter for Space Daily - the space industry professional daily news, 8/15/2000, Space Daily, “China Builds New Observatory To Detect Near-Earth Asteroids”, http://www.spacedaily.com/news/asteroid-00l.html

China began the construction of a new astronomical observatory dedicated to the detection and study of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), Xinhua News Agency reported on August 3. According to Yang Jiexing, an astronomer who is in charge of the project at the Purple Mountain Observatory in Nanjing, the new observatory is being built in the Tieshanshi State Forest Park in Xuyi County in the eastern Jiangsu Province. The chosen location has an unobstructed view of the horizon and a very dark sky, with the number of clear nights reaching 210 in a year. The observatory will house a telescope with a mirror diameter of 1.2 metres to observe near-Earth asteroids and comets. The observations will be used to determine precise orbits of these objects and find out if they pose any threat of colliding with Earth in the future. Completion of the observatory is planned for 2002. The estimated cost of the project is more than 10 million yuan renminbi ($1.2 million US). Funding comes from the local government, the State science and technology department, and contributions from Hong Kong. Upon completion the new observatory will join an international network of observatories to monitor near-Earth objects. Since the mid-1990s China has been active in studying asteroids. The Xinglong Station of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory (BAO), which is about 180 km northeast of Beijing, is among a dozen observatories in the existing asteroid monitoring network. Here the Schmidt telescope, which is smaller than the telescope that will go in the new observatory, is equipped with a CCD camera to observe minor planets under the Schmidt CCD Asteroid Program (SCAP). SCAP found its first NEA, 1997 BR, on January 20, 1997. As of January this year SCAP is credited with discovering five NEAs, two of which are potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs).

Debris Cleanup
China is working on cleaning debris

Jagannath P. Panda, Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, 2/17/07, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, “The ASAT test and China's Space Ambitions”, http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/TheASATtestandChinasSpaceAmbitions_JPPanda_120207

Looking at the future, Chinese researchers are giving prime importance to the field of space debris research work. The focus at the moment is to reduce space debris and protect space objects, especially manned spacecraft. According to Guo Baozhu, vice-administrator of China's National Space Administration, in the near future, "Chinese researchers will go in-depth in all aspects of space debris research." Going further, Luan Enjie, director of the Chinese National Space Administration, outlines that steps have been taken for an unmanned lunar programme, which involves one or more lunar orbit missions in the near future.

Moon Mining
China’s preparing to mine the moon

Tuan C. Nguyen, Editor of Smart Planet - destination for savvy advice, thought-provoking analysis and expert discussion on the intersection of technology, business and life, 5/10/11, Smart Planet, “China to launch lunar rover, mine moon for nuclear fuel”

A top Chinese official has confirmed that the world’s most populous nation plans to send robots to the moon. Ziyuan Ouyang, chief scientist of the Chinese lunar exploration program, made the announcement at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), held in Shanghai. The missions, scheduled for launch in 2013 and 2017, will serve as a tune up for a more challenging goal: putting a man on the moon by 2025. “But why?” you ask. Well, beyond obvious bragging rights, the China National Space Administration’s ambitious foray into lunar exploration is part of a grander scheme to exploit the moon’s vast iron reserves and its abundance of Helium-3, a rare but heavily sought-after fuel for nuclear fusion plants. This elaborate operation to mine the moon for these coveted natural resources was set in motion back in 2007 when the agency launched into space its first lunar orbiter Chang’e-1 (named after the moon goddess of Chinese folklore) to scan the landscape and produce a detailed 3-D map of the moon’s surface. This was followed in 2010 by the successful launch of another probe, Chang’e-2, which was equipped with a higher-resolution camera and orbited at an even closer distance of 100 kilometers. The data is being used to pinpoint an ideal landing spot for a rover.
China’s plans for moon mining set in place

Casey Kazan, writer for newscientist magazine, 10/3/10, Daily Galaxy, “China Launches Second Moon Mission: Is Mining Rare Helium 3 an Ultimate Goal?”, http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2010/10/china-launches-second-moon-mission-is-mining-helium-3-an-ultimate-goal.html

In 2007, shortly after Russia claimed a vast portion of the Arctic sea floor, accelerating an international race for the natural resources as global warming opens polar access, China announced plans to map "every inch" of the surface of the Moon and exploit the vast quantities of Helium-3 thought to lie buried in lunar rocks as part of its ambitious space-exploration program. Ouyang Ziyuan, head of the first phase of lunar exploration, was quoted on government-sanctioned news site ChinaNews.com describing plans to collect three dimensional images of the Moon for future mining of Helium 3: "There are altogether 15 tons of helium-3 on Earth, while on the Moon, the total amount of Helium-3 can reach one to five million tons." "Helium-3 is considered as a long-term, stable, safe, clean and cheap material for human beings to get nuclear energy through controllable nuclear fusion experiments," Ziyuan added. "If we human beings can finally use such energy material to generate electricity, then China might need 10 tons of helium-3 every year and in the world, about 100 tons of helium-3 will be needed every year." Helium 3fusion energy - classic Buck Rogers propulsion system- may be the key to future space exploration and settlement, requiring less radioactive shielding, lightening the load. Scientists estimate there are about one million tons of helium 3 on the moon, enough to power the world for thousands of years. The equivalent of a single space shuttle load or roughly 25 tons could supply the entire United States' energy needs for a year. Thermonuclear reactors capable of processing Helium-3 would have to be built, along with major transport system to get various equipment to the Moon to process huge amounts of lunar soil and get the minerals back to Earth. With China's announcement, a new Moon-focused Space Race seems locked in place. China made its first steps in space just a few years ago, and is in the process of establishing a lunar base by 2024. Russia, the first to put a probe on the moon, plans to deploy a lunar base in 2015. A new, reusable spacecraft, called Kliper, has been earmarked for lunar flights, with the International Space Station being an essential galactic pit stop. The harvesting of Helium-3 on the moon could start by 2025. Our lunar mining could be but a jumping off point for Helium 3 extraction from the atmospheres of our Solar System gas giants, Saturn and Jupiter.

Moon Mining

China has the capabilities to bring Helium-3 to Earth

Neil Reynolds, Columnist at The Globe and Mail, 7/5/10, The Globe and Mail, “Many moons to go: the promise of lunar mining”, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/many-moons-to-go-the-promise-of-lunar-mining/article1626913/

We don’t need to travel billions of kilometres, however, to find a lunar landscape with abundant energy resources. Our own moon is a mere 384,000 kilometres away, four days by shuttle – less time than it takes to truck grapes from California to Toronto. China, for one, now appears to understand the strategic importance of Earth’s moon: Chinese geochemist Ouyang Ziyuan, director of China’s Lunar Exploration Program, says that a principal goal of China’s space program is the mining of Helium-3, a non-radioactive isotope scarce on Earth but relatively plentiful on the moon. By some calculations (including China’s), a four-ton shuttle load of lunar Helium-3 per week would theoretically provide enough safe nuclear-fusion energy to meet the needs of the entire world. (The only practical Earth source for Helium-3 is apparently obsolete nuclear warheads.) Russian scientists have advanced similar analysis – suggesting that lunar mining could be under way by 2020, provided governments invested $6-billion in up-front funding.

SBSP
China is equal to US in SBDP

William John Cox, American public interest lawyer, retired prosecutor, author and political activist., 4/30/11, Truth Out, “The Race for Space-Solar Energy”, http://www.truth-out.org/race-space-solar-energy/1304186557

Presently, only the top industrialized nations have the technological, industrial and economic power to compete in the race for space-solar energy. In spite of, and perhaps because of, the current disaster, Japan occupies the inside track, as it is the only nation that has a dedicated space-solar energy program, and which is highly motivated to change directions. China, which has launched astronauts into an earth orbit and is rapidly become the world's leader in the production of wind and solar generation products, will undoubtedly become a strong competitor. However, the United States, which should have every advantage in the race, is most likely to stumble out of the gate and waste the best chance it has to solve its economic, energy, political and military problems.

***CHINA PRESTIGE NB***

1NC – Zero Sum DA
US will lose space race to China

Spillius ’10. Alex Spillius Telegraph’s Washington Correspondent 4/15/10 [The Telegraph US faces losing space race to Russia and China]

But opposition is rising in Congress, which must approve the plans, leading Mr Obama to retain a small part of Constellation as a compromise. "That just drags out the pain and slows everything down for a long time," said Brewster Shaw, the chairman of Boeing's space division. Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon, warned in an open letter this week that Mr Obama's proposal "destines our nation to become one of second- or even third-rate stature". China this week announced that it intends to leapfrog the US by putting a large spacecraft in orbit before the end of this decade, at which point American astronauts are still likely to be riding to the ISS on Russian vehicles. They also announced plans to launch three spacecraft between 2011 and 2016 to form the basis of a manned space station. Americans retain great pride in winning the space race with the Soviet Union, and the president himself has spoken of the excitement he experienced as a boy watching the Apollo landings. Though it is rarely said publicly, consecutive US administrations have however determined that the old levels of spending on space are unaffordable. Mr Obama's space experts have insisted that cooperation with other nations is the only realistic option in the long term.
Space race is zero sum – US dominance is a Chinese loss. This destabilizes relations

Martel & Yoshihara ‘3. William Martel [PhD in Political Science, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Associate Professor of International Security Studies Yoshihara [Analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, RAND, and the American Enterprise Institute. He holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, an M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies] 2003 The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology “Averting a Sino-U.S.Space Race”

At the same time that the United States views space dominance as a fundamental tenet of its national security, China evidently views U.S. space dominance as a major threat to its geostrategic interests. These views inevitably breed a zero-sum competition, in which one side perceives any loss as a gain for the other, and could ultimately prove destabilizing for Sino-U.S. relations. First, Beijing perceives the proposed U.S. missile defense system, which will be supported by an array of space systems and sensors, as a strategic menace to China and to international security.15 Many China watchers con- tend that this perception stems from anxieties that any conceivable system of missile defenses being developed by the Bush administration will under- mine China’s small nuclear deterrent.16 Beijing remains wary of the joint re- search program on missile defense by the U.S.-Japanese alliance, which the PRC sees as a potential partnership for blocking Chinese regional aspirations or, in broader terms, for containing China. Of particular concern for Beijing is the possibility that Tokyo’s decision formally to join U.S. plans for deploying missile defense in Northeast Asia will significantly increase Japan’s military capabilities by providing an opportunity for Japanese forces to enjoy unprecedented military integration with U.S. forces in the areas of space- based intelligence and communications.

1NC – Zero Sum DA
US-China relations prevent extinction

Cohen 9 (William S. Cohen is chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group, a strategic business consulting firm based in Washington, D.C. Secretary Cohen served as U.S. secretary of defense, Maurice R. Greenberg is chairman and CEO of C.V. Starr & Co., Inc. Mr. Greenberg retired four years ago as chairman and CEO of American International Group (AIG) after more than 40 years of leadership, creating the largest insurance company in history, “Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations,” pg online @ http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090309_mcgiffert_uschinasmartpower_web.pdf //ef)

The evolution of Sino-U.S. relations over the next months, years, and decades has the potential to have a greater impact on global security and prosperity than any other bilateral or multilateral arrangement. In this sense, many analysts consider the US.-China diplomatic relationship to be the most influential in the world. Without question, strong and stable U.S. alliances provide the foundation for the protection and promotion of U.S. and global interests. Yet within that broad framework, the trajectory of U.S.-China relations will determine the success, or failure, of efforts to address the toughest global challenges: global financial stability, energy security and climate change, nonproliferation, and terrorism, among other pressing issues. Shepherding that trajectory in the most constructive direction possible must therefore be a priority for Washington and Beijing. Virtually no major global challenge can be met without U.S.-China cooperation. The uncertainty of that future trajectory and the "strategic mistrust" between leaders in Washington and Beijing necessarily concerns many experts and policymakers in both countries. Although some U.S. analysts see China as a strategic competitor—deliberately vying with the United States for energy resources, military superiority, and international political influence alike— analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has generally found that China uses its soft power to pursue its own, largely economic, international agenda primarily to achieve its domestic objectives of economic growth and social stability.1 Although Beijing certainly has an eye on Washington, not all of its actions are undertaken as a counterpoint to the United States. In addition, CSIS research suggests that growing Chinese soft power in developing countries may have influenced recent U.S. decisions to engage more actively and reinvest in soft-power tools that have atrophied during the past decade. To the extent that there exists a competition between the United States and China, therefore, it may be mobilizing both countries to strengthen their ability to solve global problems.
1NC - CCP Stability DA

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