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| Lessons Learned • NATO Membership Matters Montenegro pursued NATO membership at great risk and after having to implement far reaching reforms. Its determination to join the alliance is a testament to NATO’s seminal importance in the world today. The leading countries in NATO, including the United States, should recognize the commitment made by our most vulnerable allies to the alliance and continuously reciprocate by reiterating the United States commitment to the importance of NATO, particularly Article 5. • Russia’s Asymmetric Arsenal Now Includes the Alleged Use of Violence Outside of the Former Soviet Space Montenegrin authorities were fortunate to uncover the coup plot before it occurred, but evidence presented at the trial shows that the plotters were very close to succeeding. The Montenegro case shows how far the Russian government was willing to go in order to stop a country’s membership in the Alliance—it should serve as a wake-up call for other NATO and EU aspirants, especially in the Balkans. • The NATO Reform Process Can Itself Build Resilience In a July 2017 statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee regarding the coup attempt, Montenegrin Ambassador to the United States Nebojsa Kaludjerovic said, it was thanks to those NATO reforms aimed at strengthening the capacity and independence of institutions to uphold the rule of law that helped those very institutions to tackle such a challenge we are talking about today that would have put to test much more established democracies than ours.’’ 455 NATO should take heed and require a series of reforms by aspirant countries directly focused on building resiliency against threats from the Russian government’s asymmetric arsenal. • Montenegro Must Remain Vigilant Now that Montenegro has joined NATO, heavy-handed and overtly violent tactics by Russia are less likely, but Moscow could continue to exert pressure and influence in ways similar to those seen in countries like Bulgaria. The international community should not rest on its laurels now that Montenegro is a NATO member, but should actively help the government to bolster its defenses against other soft power tools in Russia’s asymmetric arsenal. VerDate Mar 15 2010 04:06 Jan 09, 2018 Jkt PO 00000 Frm 00086 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\COMMITTEE PRINT 2018\HENRY\JAN. 9 REPORT FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER 81 456 Forty-two percent of Serbian citizens see Russia as Serbia’s most supportive partner, compared to 14 percent for the EU and 12 percent for China. Public Opinion Survey of 1,050 Serbian Adults, Sept. 2017 (unpublished. While 49 percent of Serbian citizens supported joining the EU in September 2017, that number drops to only 28 percemt if joining the EU meant spoiling Serbia’s relationship with Russia Public Opinion Survey of 1,050 Serbian Adults, Sept. 2017 (unpublished. Serbian Defense Minister Denounces US. Official’s Unfriendly Remarks Radio Free Eu- rope/Radio Free Liberty, Oct. 24, 2017. 459 Ibid. 460 Ibid. 461 ‘‘EU Opens New Negotiation Chapters With Montenegro, Serbia Radio Free Europe Radio Free Liberty, Dec. 11, 2017. SERBIA Russian malign influence in the Republic of Serbia manifests itself through cultural ties, propaganda, energy, and an expanding defense relationship. Moscow also highlights deep roots between the countries through the Orthodox Church and a shared Slavic culture. This narrative has been carefully cultivated over the years such that Russian government disinformation campaigns find very fertile ground among the population of Serbia. 456 Despite its close relationship with Moscow, the government of Serbia has made clear that its top priority is joining the European Union. Serbia’s desire to maintain good relations with both the EU and Russia is reflective of public opinion, but may not be sustainable, as deeper integration may mean adopting EU decisions that run counter to Russian interests. 457 Therefore, closer ties between Serbia and the EU could result in a significant surge in Russian malign influence in the country. The government of Serbia has done little to prepare for this eventuality and has taken few discernable actions to defend against Russian malign influence. Serbian government officials differing opinions on EU integration reflect a tension within the broader society itself. In remarks at the Serbian Economic Summit in Belgrade in October 2017, US. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hoyt Brian Yee said that those countries who wished to join the European Union must very clearly demonstrate this desire Referring to Serbia’s longstanding relationship with Moscow, he said, You cannot sit on two chairs at the same time, especially if they are that far away.’’ 458 The mixed reaction from the Serbian government to Yee’s remarks reflected the point that Yee was trying to make. Tanja Miscevic, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs negotiator on Serbia’s EU Accession bid, said that Yee’s statement was taken out of context and that he understood that Serbia’s clear foreign political strategic orientation was towards the EU. 459 Serbia’s Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin, on the other hand, lashed out and said, This is not a statement made by a friend or a man respecting Serbia, our policy, and our right to make our own decisions He also said that Serbia will choose its course regardless of what the great powers want. 460 Serbia has made significant progress in talks with the EU, having opened 12 out of the 35 chapters required for EU member- ship. 461 It also has the closest ties to Russia of any of the prospective candidates. And as it continues to make progress towards integration with Europe, there are signs that Moscow plans to increase pressure on the Balkan country to prevent this outcome. As Serbia s EU bid becomes more serious, Belgrade would be well served VerDate Mar 15 2010 04:06 Jan 09, 2018 Jkt PO 00000 Frm 00087 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\COMMITTEE PRINT 2018\HENRY\JAN. 9 REPORT FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER |