Election Disadvantage



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Elections Disadvantage DDI 2012

Generics


Election Disadvantage




Uniqueness

Election Disadvantage 1

Uniqueness 2

Obama Wins 1NC 3

Obama Win – 60%-55% 4

Obama Win – Approval Rating 5

Obama Win – Electoral Votes 8

Obama Win – Halloway Prediction 9

Obama Win – Latinos 10

Obama Win – Swing States 11

Election is a Dead Heat 12

Obama Lose – Economy 13

Obama Lose – Latino Turnout 15

Romney Win – Fundraisers 16

Romney Win – Likely Voters 17

Romney Win – Momentum 18

Romney Winning Swing States 19

AT: Gay Marriage 20

October Surprise – Iran Strikes Cause Obama to Lose 21

October Surprise – Iran Strikes Cause Obama to Win 22



Uniqueness Prodicts 23

Election Markets Best 24

Favorability Polls Best 26

Gallup Poll Best 27

Lichtman Best 28

AT: Lichtman 29

National Polls Best 30

Polls Accurate 31

Polls Inaccurate 32

Rasmussen/Survey USA Best 35

Rasmussen Biased 37

AT: Pew Research Center 38



Links 38

Transportation 1NC 39

Generic Transportation Links 40

Generic – No New Infrastructure 43

Generic – Spending 44

Generic – Transportation Spending 45

Generic – Talking Points 2NC 47

Gas Tax Link 2NC 49

Ext – Transportation Spending = Gas Tax 50

Ext – Gas Tax Unpopular 52

Ext – Gas Tax Outweighs Public Support for Infrastructure 53

Link Shield – Public Distrust 54

Link Shield – Public Priorities 55

Link Shield – Cannot Spur Voters 56

Link Booster – Pork Barrel Spending 57

High Speed Rail Links 58

High Speed Rail – Link Shield 61

Highways Links 62

Keystone Links 63

Ext – Keystone Kills Environmentalist Support 64

Mass Transit Links 65

Port Security Links 67

Public-Private Partnership Links 68

AT: No Link – Not Congress 69

AT: Link Turn – Plan is a Win (Jobs) 70

Internal Links 70

Economy Key 71

Economy Key – Outweighs Partisan Issues 72

AT: Economy Outweighs Other Issues 73

Independent Voters – Romney Winning 74

Independent Voters Key 75

Independent Voters Key – Uniqueness Trick 77

Independent Voters Key – Economy Issues 78

Independent Voters Key – Likely to Switch 80

Independent Voters Key – Swing States 81

Independents Key – Arizona 83

Independents Key – Colorado 84

Independents Key – Iowa 85

Independents Key – Pennsylvania 86

Partisanship Kills Obama 87

Rural Voters Key 88

Women Voters – Pro-Obama Now 91

Young Voters Key 93

Young Vote Key – Close Election 96

Young Voters Not Key 97



Obama Good (Domestic) 97

Turns Case – Transportation Spending 98

Ext – Obama Will Increase Transportation Spending 99

Ext – GOP Rollbacks Transportation Spending 100

Economy 2NC 101

Economy – Foreign Tax Exemption 2NC 102

Economy – Tax Cuts 2NC 103

Ext – Tax Cuts Hurt Economy 104

Ext – Romney Kills Jobs 106

Ext – Romney Kills the Economy 108

Economy – Obama Policy Good 110

Cap and Trade 2NC 112

Ext – Romney Kills Cap and Trade 114

EPA 2NC 115

Ext – Romney Will Rollback EPA Regulations 116

EPA Regulations Good – Climate 117

EPA Regulations Good – Economy 119

Ethanol Subsidies 2NC 120

NASA 2NC 121

Obamacare 2NC 124

Ext – Obama Key to Obamacare 125

Ext – Romney Kills Obamacare 127

Obamacare Good – Economy 129

Obamacare Good – Disease 130



Obama Good (Foreign Policy) 130

China Bashing 2NC 131

Ext – Romney Leads to China Bashing 132

Turns Soft Power 133

Trade War Bad – US/China War 134

Trade War Bad – China Economy 2NC 135

China Bashing Bad – Economy 136

Climate Deal 2NC 137

CTBT 2NC 138

Ext – Obama Key to CTBT 140

CTBT – AT: Obama Won’t Push 141

CTBT Good – Disarm 142

CTBT Good - Multilateralism 144

CTBT Good – Proliferation 145

CTBT Good – AT: Deterrence 147

Defense Cuts – Obama Will Cut 148

Defense Cuts – Romney Will Increase 150

Defense Cuts Good – Military Effectiveness 152

Global Zero 2NC 154

AT: Cuts Bad – No Impact to Deterrence 156

Iran Strikes 2NC 158

Ext – Romney Will Strike Iran 159

Iran Strikes – AT: Campaign Rhetoric 160

Strikes Bad – Economy 161

Strikes Bad – Hezbollah 162

Strikes Bad - NATO 164

Strikes Bad – Russia 165

Strikes Bad – AT: Just Nuclear Strikes Not Regime Change 166

Strikes Bad – AT: No Escalation 167

Strikes Bad – AT: Limited War 168

US/Russia Relations 2NC 169

Ext – Obama Solves Russia Reset 170

Ext – Romney Kills US/Russian Relations 171

US/Russia Relations – Iran 175

US/Russia Relations – Warming 176

Missile Defense Coop 2NC 177

Ext – Obama Will Promote MD Coop 178

Ext – Romney Promotes Aggressive MD 180

Aggressive MD Bad – Arms Race 182

Aggressive MD Bad – Conflict 183

Aggressive MD Bad – First Strike 184

Aggressive MD Bad – START 185

START Good – Nuclear War 186

Syria Arms 2NC 187

Ext – Obama Won’t Arm Syrian Rebels 188

Ext – Romney Will Arm Syrian Rebels 189

Syrian Conflict Impact – Saudi/Iran War 190

Ext – Syrian Conflict Escalates 192

Syrian Conflict Impact – Sectarian Conflict 193

Syrian Conflict Impact – AT: No Middle East War 195

Taiwan F16s – Romney Will Sell 196

Taiwan F16s Bad – South China Sea 197

Taiwan F16s Bad – US/China Relations 199

Taiwan F16s – AT: Non-Unique – F16 Upgrades 200

Unilateralism 2NC 201

Ext – Romney Leads to Bush Doctrine 202

AT: Palestinian Peace Process 203

AT: Romney Will Be Moderate 204



States 204

Swing States – Spending Link 205

Swing States – Economy Key 206

Swing States – Core Four (FL/NC/OH/VA) 207

Swing States Key 208

AT: Link Turn – Jobs Key to Swing States 209

AT: Link Turn – Swing State Economy 210

Arizona – Not Swing State 211

Colorado – Swing State 212

Florida – Romney Winning 214

Florida Key 215

Iowa 2NC – Rural Voters 217

Iowa – Economy Key 218

North Carolina – Swing State 219

North Carolina – Not Swing State 220

Ohio – Obama Winning 221

Ohio – Swing State 222

Ohio – Not Key 223

Pennsylvania Key 224

Virginia – Dead Heat 225

Virginia – Obama Winning 226

Virginia – Unemployment Key 227

Virginia – Swing State 228

Washington – Dislike Transportation Spending 230

Wisconsin – Swing State 231

Obama Bad 232

Links 232

Transportation Infrastructure 1NC 233

Generic – AT: Other Issues 235

Compromise Link 236

Plan = Jobs Agenda 237

Job Creation Link 238

Job Creation Link – Perception 239

Job Creation Link – Economy Key 240

Job Creation – Key to Election 241

Generic – Investment Support 242

Generic – HNTB Survey Prodict 245

Generic – Swings Voters 246

Generic – AT: But They Don’t Want to Pay 247

Generic – Public Transportation 248

Latinos 2NC 249

Latinos – Key to Election 250

Latinos – AT: Immigration Key 252

Latinos – AT: Latinos Key 253

Latinos – Low Turnout 255

Airports Links 257

Bicycles Links 258

High Speed Rail Links 259

Highways Links 260

Mass Transit Links 261

National Infrastructure Banks Links 262

Sustainable Communities Links 263

AT: Gas Tax Link 264

Obama Bad Impacts (Foreign Policy) 264

Deterrence 2NC 265

Ext – Obama Kills Deterrence 266

Ext – Nuclear Cuts Kill Deterrence 269

Ext – Modernization Now 271

Unilateral Disarm Bad – Nuclear War 272

Deterrence Good – Nuclear War 274

Deterrence Good – Probability 276

Deterrence Good – AT: Conventional Solves 277

Nuclear Cuts Bad – AT: Modeling 278

US/Israel Relations 2NC 279

Ext – Obama Hurts US/Israel Relations 281

US/Israel Relations Good – War 285

Obama Weakness 2NC 286

Ext – Obama is Weak 288

Palestinian Peace Process 2NC 289

AT: Palestinian Peace Process Good 290

Taiwan F16s Good – Alliances 292

Ext – Taiwan F16s Key to Alliances 293

Taiwan F16s Good – Asian Credibility 294

Taiwan F16s Good – Perception 295

Ext – Taiwan F16s Key to Resolve 297

Taiwan F16s Good – AT: US/China Relations 298

Taiwan F16s – F16 Upgrades Now 299

Taiwan F16s – AT: Non-Unique – House Passed 300

Aggressive MD Good – Conflict 301

Aggressive MD Good – Laundry List 303

Aggressive MD Good – AT: Relations 305

AT: Bush Doctrine 306

AT: Climate Change 308

AT: Law of the Sea 309

AT: Trans-Pacific Partnership 311



Obama Bad (Domestic) 311

Cap and Trade Bad – Competitiveness 312

Cap and Trade Bad – Economy 314

Cap and Trade Bad – Farming 316

Cap and Trade Bad – Free Trade 317

Ext – Cap and Trade Hurts Free Trade 318

Cap and Trade Bad – Warming Answers 319

EPA Regulations Bad – Coal 321

EPA Regulations Bad – Economy 323

EPA Regulations Bad – Steel 324

Ext – EPA Regulations Hurt Steel Industry 326

Ext – Steel Key to Hegemony 327

EPA Regulations – No Rollback 328

Obama Economic Policy Bad 329

Obama Economic Policy Bad – Buffett Rule Bad 330

AT: Obamacare – Rollback Inevitable 331

AT: Obamacare – Romney Alternative 332

Miscellaneous Answers 333

No Link – Perception 334



Too Far Out 335







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