Erasmus university rotterdam



Download 1.62 Mb.
Page11/20
Date20.10.2016
Size1.62 Mb.
#5462
1   ...   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   ...   20

Results surface

5.4.1 Results surface - ATP and WTA tournaments


Table 15: Results of all ATP and WTA tournaments sorted by surface










 

Grass

 

 




 

Gravel

 

 

Category

Proba-bility




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test

1

1-5%




25

1,586

7,153

1,109




47

-1,000

0,000

0,000

2

5-10%




142

-0,444

2,716

-1,950




265

-0,506

2,560

-3,214

3

10-15%




169

-0,359

2,157

-2,165




382

-0,469

1,980

-4,627

4

15-20%




218

-0,157

2,046

-1,135




392

-0,058

2,120

-0,541

5

20-25%




218

-0,057

1,834

-0,456




595

-0,196

1,710

-2,783

6

25-30%




242

-0,057

1,595

-0,558




547

-0,184

1,520

-2,842

7

30-35%




266

-0,180

1,364

-2,151




667

-0,110

1,400

-2,036

8

35-40%




251

0,045

1,309

0,540




758

-0,069

1,280

-1,495

9

40-45%




261

-0,141

1,138

-2,008




683

-0,037

1,160

-0,832

10

45-50%




257

-0,038

1,055

-0,582




680

0,004

1,060

0,103

11

50-55%




182

-0,071

0,953

-1,001




429

-0,089

0,950

-1,932

12

55-60%




239

-0,073

0,866

-1,306




627

-0,106

0,870

-3,061

13

60-65%




275

0,008

0,776

0,169




770

-0,048

0,780

-1,704

14

65-70%




258

-0,102

0,722

-2,263




703

-0,071

0,710

-2,657

15

70-75%




270

-0,010

0,621

-0,274




695

-0,039

0,640

-1,606

16

75-80%




238

-0,081

0,589

-2,132




573

-0,013

0,550

-0,577

17

80-85%




212

-0,025

0,486

-0,756




580

-0,019

0,480

-0,976

18

85-90%




204

-0,053

0,432

-1,739




412

-0,039

0,420

-1,866

19

90-95%




221

-0,021

0,327

-0,972




436

-0,012

0,310

-0,830

20

95-100%




182

-0,029

0,235

-1,651




355

-0,006

0,190

-0,620

Total

 

 

4.330

-0,261

28,375




 

10.596

-3,067

20,690
















 

Hard-court (i)

 




 

Hard-court (o)

 

Category

Proba-bility




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test




Number of games

Mean return category

Standard deviation

T-test

1

1-5%




1

-1,000

0,000

0,000




49

-1,000

0,000

0,000

2

5-10%




76

-0,214

2,998

-0,623




551

-0,519

2,338

-5,208

3

10-15%




132

-0,030

2,645

-0,132




591

-0,331

2,196

-3,667

4

15-20%




222

-0,331

1,847

-2,674




686

-0,182

2,039

-2,333

5

20-25%




304

-0,080

1,805

-0,777




863

-0,197

1,702

-3,392

6

25-30%




358

-0,200

1,508

-2,509




936

-0,198

1,513

-4,008

7

30-35%




366

-0,082

1,413

-1,113




1.009

-0,108

1,397

-2,453

8

35-40%




398

-0,060

1,279

-0,932




985

-0,104

1,262

-2,581

9

40-45%




384

-0,062

1,156

-1,047




1.115

-0,110

1,144

-3,209

10

45-50%




349

0,065

1,058

1,141




1.014

-0,107

1,048

-3,251

11

50-55%




343

-0,050

0,955

-0,974




837

-0,055

0,955

-1,658

12

55-60%




345

-0,160

0,868

-3,432




994

-0,035

0,861

-1,284

13

60-65%




401

-0,051

0,786

-1,310




1.160

-0,030

0,781

-1,323

14

65-70%




389

-0,077

0,717

-2,122




1.036

-0,025

0,702

-1,163

15

70-75%




371

-0,034

0,633

-1,025




988

-0,043

0,636

-2,104

16

75-80%




360

-0,011

0,551

-0,384




916

-0,001

0,544

-0,042

17

80-85%




329

-0,047

0,501

-1,710




942

-0,011

0,473

-0,746

18

85-90%




217

-0,009

0,390

-0,341




649

-0,008

0,388

-0,551

19

90-95%




175

-0,042

0,355

-1,582




729

-0,039

0,345

-3,051

20

95-100%




88

-0,024

0,241

-0,950




636

-0,010

0,197

-1,252

Total

 




5.608

-2,503

21,707




 

16.686

-3,113

20,521






Graph 4: Development of the mean return of ATP and WTA tournaments per surface
Table 16: Mean return in category 1-7 and 15-20 per surface

Year

Mean return category 1-7

Mean return category 15-20

Grass

-0,150

-0,036

Gravel

-0,233

-0,023

Hard-court (i)

-0,151

-0,028

Hard-court (o)

-0,239

-0,019

As said before, the favorite longshot bias is based on underdogs and favorites, so categories 1-7 (underdogs) and category 15-20 (favorites) are the most important. In table 12 a quick overview of the returns per surface is added. Looking at table 16 we see at every surface a lower return in the underdogs categories compared to the favorites, which can be a indication for the existence of a favorite longshot bias.


If we compare the t-values in the years with the t-values of section 5.1 and 5.2, we see a lot more insignificant results. Especially the results of gravel and hard-court (i) are insignificant. Because of those insignificant t-values (-2 < t < 2) we can doubt about the existence of a favorite longshot bias at those surfaces. It is interesting to test the ATP and WTA tournaments separately, because this might lead better t-values. With better t-values the doubt about the existence of a favorite longshot bias could disappear. In 5.4.2 we test the data per surface for ATP and WTA tournaments separately.



Download 1.62 Mb.

Share with your friends:
1   ...   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   ...   20




The database is protected by copyright ©ininet.org 2024
send message

    Main page