Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2010

Verification of Previous Forecasts

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14 Verification of Previous Forecasts
Table 11: Summary verification of the authors’ six previous years of seasonal forecasts for Atlantic TC activity between 2004-2009.

2004	5 Dec. 2003	Update 2 April	Update 28 May	Update 6 August	Obs.
Named Storms	13	14	14	13	15
Named Storm Days	55	60	60	55	93
Hurricanes	7	8	8	7	9
Hurricane Days	30	35	35	30	45.50
Major Hurricanes	3	3	3	3	6
Major Hurricane Days	6	8	8	6	22.25
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	125	145	145	125	232

2005	3 Dec. 2004	Update 1 April	Update 31 May	Update 5 August	Obs.
Named Storms	11	13	15	20	28
Named Storm Days	55	65	75	95	131.50
Hurricanes	6	7	8	10	15
Hurricane Days	25	35	45	55	49.75
Major Hurricanes	3	3	4	6	7
Major Hurricane Days	6	7	11	18	17.75
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	115	135	170	235	279

2006	6 Dec. 2005	Update 4 April	Update 31 May	Update 3 August	Obs.
Named Storms	17	17	17	15	10
Named Storm Days	85	85	85	75	52.75
Hurricanes	9	9	9	7	5
Hurricane Days	45	45	45	35	21.25
Major Hurricanes	5	5	5	3	2
Major Hurricane Days	13	13	13	8	2
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	195	195	195	140	85

2007	8 Dec. 2006	Update 3 April	Update 31 May	Update 3 August	Obs.
Named Storms	14	17	17	15	15
Named Storm Days	70	85	85	75	37.75
Hurricanes	7	9	9	8	6
Hurricane Days	35	40	40	35	12.25
Major Hurricanes	3	5	5	4	2
Major Hurricane Days	8	11	11	10	6
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	140	185	185	160	99

2008	7 Dec. 2007	Update 9 April	Update 3 June	Update 5 August	Obs.
Named Storms	13	15	15	17	16
Named Storm Days	60	80	80	90	88.25
Hurricanes	7	8	8	9	8
Hurricane Days	30	40	40	45	30.50
Major Hurricanes	3	4	4	5	5
Major Hurricane Days	6	9	9	11	7.50
Accumulated Cyclone Energy	115	150	150	175	146
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	125	160	160	190	162

2009	10 Dec. 2008	Update 9 April	Update 2 June	Update 4 August	Obs.
Named Storms	14	12	11	10	9
Named Storm Days	70	55	50	45	30
Hurricanes	7	6	5	4	3
Hurricane Days	30	25	20	18	12
Major Hurricanes	3	2	2	2	2
Major Hurricane Days	7	5	4	4	3.50
Accumulated Cyclone Energy	125	100	85	80	53
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	135	105	90	85	69

1 Research Scientist

2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science

Directory: content -> documents
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2013
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2009
documents -> Summary of 2008 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007
documents -> Summary of 2007 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, individual monthly activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007
documents -> Forecast of atlantic hurricane activity for october-november 2007 and seasonal update through september
documents -> European organisation for the safety of air navigation

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