Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, individual monthly activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007


Verification of Previous Forecasts



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13 Verification of Previous Forecasts
Table 15: Verification of the authors’ early August forecasts of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes between 1984-2006. Observations only include storms that formed after 1 August. Note that these early August forecasts have either exactly verified or forecasted the correct deviation from climatology in 21 of 23 years for named storms and 17 of 23 years for hurricanes. If we predict an above- or below-average season, it tends to be above or below average, even if our exact forecast numbers did not verify.


Year

Predicted NS

Observed NS

Predicted H

Observed H

1984

10

12

7

5

1985

10

9

7

6

1986

7

4

4

3

1987

7

7

4

3

1988

11

12

7

5

1989

9

8

4

7

1990

11

12

6

7

1991

7

7

3

4

1992

8

6

4

4

1993

10

7

6

4

1994

7

6

4

3

1995

16

14

9

10

1996

11

10

7

7

1997

11

3

6

1

1998

10

13

6

10

1999

14

11

9

8

2000

11

14

7

8

2001

12

14

7

9

2002

9

11

4

4

2003

14

12

8

5

2004

13

14

7

9

2005

13

20

8

12

2006

13

7

7

5
















Average

10.6

10.1

6.1

6.0
















1984-2006 Correlation




0.61




0.60

Table 16: Summary verification of the authors’ six previous years of seasonal forecasts for Atlantic TC activity between 2001-2006.



2001

7 Dec. 2000


Update

6 April


Update

7 June


Update

7 August

Obs.


No. of Hurricanes

5

6

7

7

9

No. of Named Storms

9

10

12

12

15

No. of Hurricane Days

20

25

30

30

26

No. of Named Storm Days

45

50

60

60

64

Hurr. Destruction Potential

65

65

75

75

71

Intense Hurricanes

2

2

3

3

4

Intense Hurricane Days

4

4

5

5

4.25

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

90

100

120

120

134



2002

7 Dec. 2001


Update

5 April


Update

31 May


Update

7 August


Update

2 Sept.

Obs.


No. of Hurricanes

8

7

6

4

3

4

No. of Named Storms

13

12

11

9

8

12

No. of Hurricane Days

35

30

25

12

10

11

No. of Named Storm Days

70

65

55

35

25

54

Hurr. Destruction Potential

90

85

75

35

25

31

Intense Hurricanes

4

3

2

1

1

2

Intense Hurricane Days

7

6

5

2

2

3

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

140

125

100

60

45

82



2003

6 Dec. 2002


Update

4 April


Update

30 May


Update

6 August


Update

3 Sept.


Update

2 Oct.

Obs.


No. of Hurricanes

8

8

8

8

7

8

7

No. of Named Storms

12

12

14

14

14

14

16

No. of Hurricane Days

35

35

35

25

25

35

32

No. of Named Storm Days

65

65

70

60

55

70

79

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

Intense Hurricane Days

8

8

8

5

9

15

16.75

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

140

140

145

120

130

155

174



2004

5 Dec. 2003


Update

2 April


Update

28 May


Update

6 August


Update

3 Sept.


Update

1 Oct.

Obs.


No. of Hurricanes

7

8

8

7

8

9

9

No. of Named Storms

13

14

14

13

16

15

14

No. of Hurricane Days

30

35

35

30

40

52

46

No. of Named Storm Days

55

60

60

55

70

96

90

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

3

3

5

6

6

Intense Hurricane Days

6

8

8

6

15

23

22.25

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

125

145

145

125

185

240

229



2005

3 Dec. 2004


Update

1 April


Update

31 May


Update

5 August


Update

2 Sept.


Update

3 Oct.

Obs.


No. of Hurricanes

6

7

8

10

10

11

15

No. of Named Storms

11

13

15

20

20

20

27

No. of Hurricane Days

25

35

45

55

45

40

50

No. of Named Storm Days

55

65

75

95

95

100

129

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

4

6

6

6

7

Intense Hurricane Days

6

7

11

18

15

13

17.75

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

115

135

170

235

220

215

277



2006

6 Dec. 2005


Update

4 April


Update

31 May


Update

3 August


Update

1 Sept.


Update

3 Oct.



Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

9

9

9

7

5

6

5

No. of Named Storms

17

17

17

15

13

11

10

No. of Hurricane Days

45

45

45

35

13

23

21

No. of Named Storm Days

85

85

85

75

50

58

53

Intense Hurricanes

5

5

5

3

2

2

2

Intense Hurricane Days

13

13

13

8

4

3

2

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

195

195

195

140

90

95

85




2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science

3 Research Associate




Directory: content -> documents
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2013
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2009
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2010
documents -> Summary of 2008 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007
documents -> Summary of 2007 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Forecast of atlantic hurricane activity for october-november 2007 and seasonal update through september
documents -> European organisation for the safety of air navigation

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