Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, individual monthly activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007

Verification of Previous Forecasts

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13 Verification of Previous Forecasts
Table 15: Verification of the authors’ early August forecasts of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes between 1984-2006. Observations only include storms that formed after 1 August. Note that these early August forecasts have either exactly verified or forecasted the correct deviation from climatology in 21 of 23 years for named storms and 17 of 23 years for hurricanes. If we predict an above- or below-average season, it tends to be above or below average, even if our exact forecast numbers did not verify.

Year	Predicted NS	Observed NS	Predicted H	Observed H
1984	10	12	7	5
1985	10	9	7	6
1986	7	4	4	3
1987	7	7	4	3
1988	11	12	7	5
1989	9	8	4	7
1990	11	12	6	7
1991	7	7	3	4
1992	8	6	4	4
1993	10	7	6	4
1994	7	6	4	3
1995	16	14	9	10
1996	11	10	7	7
1997	11	3	6	1
1998	10	13	6	10
1999	14	11	9	8
2000	11	14	7	8
2001	12	14	7	9
2002	9	11	4	4
2003	14	12	8	5
2004	13	14	7	9
2005	13	20	8	12
2006	13	7	7	5

Average	10.6	10.1	6.1	6.0

1984-2006 Correlation		0.61		0.60

Table 16: Summary verification of the authors’ six previous years of seasonal forecasts for Atlantic TC activity between 2001-2006.

2001	7 Dec. 2000	Update 6 April	Update 7 June	Update 7 August	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	5	6	7	7	9
No. of Named Storms	9	10	12	12	15
No. of Hurricane Days	20	25	30	30	26
No. of Named Storm Days	45	50	60	60	64
Hurr. Destruction Potential	65	65	75	75	71
Intense Hurricanes	2	2	3	3	4
Intense Hurricane Days	4	4	5	5	4.25
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	90	100	120	120	134

2002	7 Dec. 2001	Update 5 April	Update 31 May	Update 7 August	Update 2 Sept.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	8	7	6	4	3	4
No. of Named Storms	13	12	11	9	8	12
No. of Hurricane Days	35	30	25	12	10	11
No. of Named Storm Days	70	65	55	35	25	54
Hurr. Destruction Potential	90	85	75	35	25	31
Intense Hurricanes	4	3	2	1	1	2
Intense Hurricane Days	7	6	5	2	2	3
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	140	125	100	60	45	82

2003	6 Dec. 2002	Update 4 April	Update 30 May	Update 6 August	Update 3 Sept.	Update 2 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	8	8	8	8	7	8	7
No. of Named Storms	12	12	14	14	14	14	16
No. of Hurricane Days	35	35	35	25	25	35	32
No. of Named Storm Days	65	65	70	60	55	70	79
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	3	3	3	2	3
Intense Hurricane Days	8	8	8	5	9	15	16.75
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	140	140	145	120	130	155	174

2004	5 Dec. 2003	Update 2 April	Update 28 May	Update 6 August	Update 3 Sept.	Update 1 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	7	8	8	7	8	9	9
No. of Named Storms	13	14	14	13	16	15	14
No. of Hurricane Days	30	35	35	30	40	52	46
No. of Named Storm Days	55	60	60	55	70	96	90
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	3	3	5	6	6
Intense Hurricane Days	6	8	8	6	15	23	22.25
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	125	145	145	125	185	240	229

2005	3 Dec. 2004	Update 1 April	Update 31 May	Update 5 August	Update 2 Sept.	Update 3 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	6	7	8	10	10	11	15
No. of Named Storms	11	13	15	20	20	20	27
No. of Hurricane Days	25	35	45	55	45	40	50
No. of Named Storm Days	55	65	75	95	95	100	129
Intense Hurricanes	3	3	4	6	6	6	7
Intense Hurricane Days	6	7	11	18	15	13	17.75
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	115	135	170	235	220	215	277

2006	6 Dec. 2005	Update 4 April	Update 31 May	Update 3 August	Update 1 Sept.	Update 3 Oct.	Obs.
No. of Hurricanes	9	9	9	7	5	6	5
No. of Named Storms	17	17	17	15	13	11	10
No. of Hurricane Days	45	45	45	35	13	23	21
No. of Named Storm Days	85	85	85	75	50	58	53
Intense Hurricanes	5	5	5	3	2	2	2
Intense Hurricane Days	13	13	13	8	4	3	2
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	195	195	195	140	90	95	85

1 Research Associate

2 Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science

3 Research Associate

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documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2013
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2009
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2010
documents -> Summary of 2008 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Extended range forecast of atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and u. S. Landfall strike probability for 2007
documents -> Summary of 2007 atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of author’s seasonal and monthly forecasts
documents -> Forecast of atlantic hurricane activity for october-november 2007 and seasonal update through september
documents -> European organisation for the safety of air navigation

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