Faa office of Aviation Policy and Plans (apo-100) faa u. S. Passenger Airline Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016-2036



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FAA

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans (APO-100)

FAA U.S. Passenger Airline Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016-2036



Methodology and Data Sources

July 25, 2016

Version 1.0


Table of Contents


Background 3

Purpose of this document 4

Document revision history 4

Acknowledgements 4

Domestic forecast methodology 5

Forecast Years 5

Assumptions 5

Domestic Forecast Methodology 5

Alternative Scenarios 9

U.S. Airlines International Forecast 9

Forecast Years 10

Form 41 Forecast Methodology 10

Alternative Scenarios 12



U.S. and Foreign Flag International Forecast 12

Forecast Years 13

CBP Forecast Methodology 13

APPENDIX A: Glossary of terms 18

APPENDIX B: Data inputs and sources 19

Data inputs and sources for the baseline domestic forecast 19



APPENDIX C: Model outputs 27

Baseline Domestic Model Output 27

Baseline International (Form 41) Model Output 38

Baseline International (Customs and Border Protection) Model Output 42




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