Future Global Ethical Issues (Excerpt from the State of the Future report)


Importance and Resolution Potential of Ethical Issues



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5. Importance and Resolution Potential of Ethical Issues

Round 2 produced a set of judgments from over 300 participants about the significance and ease or difficulty in resolution of the issues that presented and invited comments. The tables below summarize the results:

Note: in the issues numbers, the first number represents the period for which that issue was listed, while the numbers after the “.” represent the issue’s number as listed in the questionnaire under that period. For example:

1.2 means issue 2 in the first time frame (2005–2010)

2. 2 means issue 2 in the second time frame (2010–2025)

3.2 means issue 2 in the third time frame (2025–2050)


2005–2010

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

Number of Respondents

1.2

What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?

4.233

3.997

300

1.5

Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?

4.133

4.110

301

1.8

Do we have a right to clone ourselves?

4.023

3.897

300

1.3

Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”

4.020

3.278

302

1.7

Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?

3.902

3.657

297

1.1

Is it right to allow people and organizations to pollute if they pay a fee or engage in pollution trading?

3.748

3.378

302

1.4

What are the ethical ways to develop applications of artificial intelligence?

3.278

2.946

299

1.6

Should scientists be held personally responsible for the consequences of their research?

3.249

3.053

301



2010–2025

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

Number of Respondents

2.4

Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities?

4.023

3.452

299

2.9

To what degree should the rights and interests of future generations prevail in decisions of this generation?

3.983

3.392

296

2.8

Would the advent of global ethical norms unduly constrain the differences among groups or the evolution of values?

3.685

3.457

295

2.10

Should a person be subjected to psychological, social, or cultural mechanisms for having the propensity to commit a crime (including, for example, the use of weapons of mass destruction) even if he or she has not yet committed such an act yet?

3.684

3.668

294

2.5

As the brain-machine interface becomes more sophisticated and global, do the demands of collective intelligence outweigh those associated with individual identity?

3.624

3.390

295

2.1

Is it ethical to extend lifespan, no matter what the cost?

3.525

3.450

299

2.7

When does information pollution become a crime?

3.357

2.939

297

2.6

Should there be a code of ethics to deal with the proliferating space junk?

3.244

2.643

299



2025–2050

Issue Number

Issue

Significance

Resolution

Number of Respondents

3.1

Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into new species?

4.199

4.115

297

3.2

Is it ethical for society to create future elites, augmented with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?

4.164

4.060

298

3.11

Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?

4.017

3.767

295

3.6

Is it right to create intelligent technological “beings” that can compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?

3.953

3.814

296

3.8

Should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?

3.919

3.608

297

3.3

Is it right for humans to merge with technology, as one way to prevent technological hegemony over humanity?

3.820

3.539

295

310

If technology develops a mind of its own, what ethical obligations should its creator's) have?

3.704

3.367

294

305

Should elimination of aging be available to everyone or just to those who can afford the treatments?

3.613

3.409

297

A very strong correlation was found between the significance of an issue and its difficulty in resolution, as shown in the chart below:







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