3. Dr. Sumner Assigns a Production Effect to Export Credits that FAPRI Does Not 31. In a further departure from the modelling approach used by FAPRI, Dr. Sumner introduces a 500 thousand-bale impact for export credit programmes. US exports are reduced by introducing this shift in the US export equation.360 The resulting effect is to lower the US price while increasing the world price. However, as with Dr. Sumner’s other modifications, there is no statistical basis for these changes.
32. Brazil provides no statistical or other economic foundation for this level of impact from the export credit guarantee programme. Dr. Sumner's stated source for the 500,000 bale impact is testimony delivered by the National Cotton Council of America in 2001, a US trade association that operates on behalf of the US cotton industry.361 Brazil presents no evidence of how that estimate was calculated and presents no analysis of its own.362 33. With respect to any actual effects on world prices caused by the application of the US export credit guarantee programme to US cotton exports, Brazil has cited no subsidy component estimates and demonstrated no economic analysis.
34. Dr. Sumner's model passes off his 500,000-bale export shift as economic analysis and forces it upon the FAPRI model. Does the Sumner model show acreage impacts from the removal of the export credit guarantee programme? Of course it does since Dr. Sumner forced it to show those impacts. Brazil, cannot, however, base its estimates on FAPRI or on any demonstrated analytical approach.
