Impact turns + answers – bfhmrs russia War Good

No Rearm

Structural factors means a shift towards autonomy is slow and ineffective

With increasing jointness between the three SDF services, the development of amphibious warfare capabilities, and the planned acquisition of strike capabilities, Japan’s defense posture is moving toward greater autonomy from the United States. Though the Japanese public is increasingly willing to recognize a powerful and independent SDF, demographic, economic, and political realities impede this development (Midford, 2011). Consequently, the transformation in the decades to come of Japan into a great power endowed with the full array of military assets, possibly including nuclear weapons, is unlikely. Japan’s falling population and low birthrate reduce manpower availability and will make increasingly challenging for the SDF to recruit despite a multiplication of marketing initiatives (Michishita et al., 2016). This demographic trend, combined with a super-aged society, also raises fiscal pressure on an already highly indebted country afflicted by anemic economic growth (Oros, 2017). In this context, the Japanese government will face difficulties justifying a surge in defense budget at the expense of social welfare spending and other public services. The informal ceiling that has capped defense budget at one percent of GDP since the mid-1970s will add to these difficulties as breaching it noticeably could feed domestic political opposition. This opposition is today almost inexistent. The rival Democratic Party weakened markedly after its poor performance in power in 2009– 12, to finally implode in September 2017. In the meantime, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought back a political stability long-awaited by the Japanese population and strengthened his leadership (Osaki, 2017). This political dynamics is one factor behind the acceleration of security reforms in recent years. The unchallenged domination of the Liberal Democratic Party cannot be taken for granted, however. The opposition could grow again into a serious obstacle to a more autonomous defense posture, especially when it comes to sensitive issues like the acquisition of nuclear weapons. These domestic constraints will prevent Japan from reaching fullfledged autonomy for the foreseeable future, and the US–Japan alliance can thus be expected to remain an important pillar of Japan’s security policy. The gradual shift toward autonomous defense is nonetheless undeniable, and unprecedented.