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Russia would let Iran lose---geopolitical interests and oil

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Russia would let Iran lose---geopolitical interests and oil Nikolay Kozhanov 19, 5-14-2019, visiting associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University and senior research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. "Will Russia back US' maximum pressure on Iran?," No Publication, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/russia-maximum-pressure-iran-190613133947683.html//HM The May 14 visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Russia was, without exaggeration, expected in the Kremlin. After the report of Special Counsel Robert Muller released in March seemingly exonerated President Donald Trump of "collusion" accusations, a window of opportunity opened up to re-establish direct communication channels. These are particularly important to the United States at the moment as it seeks not only to pull off the "deal of the century" in Palestine and find a solution in Syria, but also, more importantly, to corner Iran. To make its "maximum pressure" more effective, Washington needs Moscow to either get on board, or at least to remain neutral. Although Pompeo's visit did not result in a significant breakthrough, it allowed the two sides to explore avenues for cooperate, which they will likely move forward in the upcoming trilateral meeting between national security advisers from the US, Russia and Israel to take place in Jerusalem later this month. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, for its part, has demonstrated it was willing to make certain gestures of goodwill towards the US. Following his meeting with Pompeo, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Iran should not rely on Russia in its confrontation with the US over the nuclear deal. "Russia is not a fire brigade, we cannot save just anything, which does not fully depend on us. We have played our role ... But it does not only depend on us," the Russian president said during a press conference in Sochi on May 15. Two weeks later, Bloomberg reported that Russia refused to provide Iran with an S-400 missile system, although this request allegedly came from the very top of the Iranian political leadership. Indeed, given that this weapons system has become an increasingly political issue, it makes sense that the Russians would tread carefully on this matter, especially if there is a chance for a thaw in relations with the US and opposition from other important regional players, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Currently, Turkey is going through a diplomatic struggle with the US over its own purchase of the S-400 and is facing the risk of its acquisition of US-made F-35 fighter jets being blocked. Other countries, like Saudi Arabia, have demonstrated interests in acquiring the missile system to use it as leverage against the US. All this said, it is also important to understand that Bloomberg's description of the Russian response as a "rejection" might not be entirely accurate. Apart from political considerations, Moscow also has significant technical difficulties in fulfilling orders and deliveries of the S-400. In this sense, it might simply be unable to supply one to Iran at this point. At the same time, Moscow might see some benefit from the increased pressure on Iran at least in the short term. The sudden drop in Iran's oil exports can give Russia an excuse to insist on increasing its oil production quota within the so-called "Vienna agreement" with OPEC, which limits oil output in order to maintain high oil prices, and in this way heed demands by its energy giants, especially Rosneft, which have repeatedly criticised the deal. In early July, when OPEC and its partners meet to determine their oil production for the second half of 2019, Moscow could argue that the volume of oil Iran cannot produce due to the sanctions should be redistributed between those who are part of the agreement in order to keep the international oil market stable and avoid further price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Russia can also take advantage of Iran's preoccupation with the threat from the US-Saudi-Israeli axis, to make further gains in Syria. Although the two are allied in their support for Damascus, Moscow has recently moved to curb to Iranian influence in certain strategic areas and solidify its own positions in the country. Download 0.83 Mb. Share with your friends: