[insert impact] at: !/t’s 2nc – at: !/t – t/l No impact turns --- conflict is unlikely and strategic alignment solves --- our ev cites empirical and statistical analysis
Hsiung 19 (Christopher Weidacher Hsiung has worked as researcher at the Centre for Asian Security Studies at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) from 2012 to 2017. He is currently a PhD-candidate in political science at Oslo University. Christopher has also worked at the Swedish Embassy in Beijing, the Swedish Trade Office in Taipei, and at the European University Centre at Peking University. In 2014 he was a visiting scholar at the School of International Studies (SIS) at Peking University and in 2015 researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI). Christopher’s main research interests are China’s foreign and security policy, China-Russia relations and China’s Arctic interest. Christopher has studied Chinese language in Beijing, Wuhan and Taipei., 2019, “Facing the ‘new normal’: The strong and enduring Sino-Russian relationship and its implications for Europe,” The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, https://www.ui.se/globalassets/ui.se-eng/publications/ui-publications/2019/ui-paper-no.-3-2019.pdf) ank
Summary In sum, when looking at the trajectory of Sino-Russian relations in the next 10–15 years, four potential scenarios were considered: open rivalry, military alliance, a limited relationship and strategic alignment. The most unlikely scenario is open rivalry. This is followed by the alliance and then developments toward a limited relationship. The most likely scenario is strategic alignment. The direction of future relations will to a large extent be determined by developments in the Chinese-Russian-US relationship, domestic factors, and how China and Russia manage the growing power asymmetry. A brief summary of the four scenarios and their implications is presented in Table 3.
A Sino-Russian strategic partnership expands OBOR, energy diplomacy, and regional peace --- no impact turns --- they won’t establish a formal alliance BUT continued good will is key to our impacts
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