Impact turns + answers – bfhmrs russia War Good
Iran Strikes Good 1NC---Iran Strikes Good
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Harbor Teacher Prep-subingsubing-Ho-Neg-Lamdl T1-Round3, Impact Turns Aff Neg - Michigan7 2019 BFHMRS
Iran Strikes Good1NC---Iran Strikes Good1NC---Iran Strikes GoodUS strikes would skyrocket oil prices and end Iran nuclear acquisition---it subsides, but only after 2020Vincent Lauerman 19, 5-20-2019, president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. "War With Iran Could Send Oil To $250," OilPrice, https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/War-With-Iran-Could-Send-Oil-To-250.html//HM In this scenario, the IDF invades Gaza and southern Lebanon to battle Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively, and launches massive airstrikes against Iranian military resources in Syria. Saudi Arabia, UAE and the U.S. launch airstrikes and missile attacks on Iranian military forces, oil facilities and major cities. Iran, and its proxy forces, respond in kind. Both sides refrain from a land attack, with the 120,000 U.S. troops stationed in the Gulf insufficient to launch a successful invasion of Iran but plenty to deter Tehran and its proxies. China and Russia call for an emergency UN Security Council meeting to condemn American-led aggression against Iran, but Britain, France and the US – the other veto holders in the council – nix a vote. In six short weeks there is tremendous damage to oil facilities on both sides, given their proximity to the Persian Gulf region, and to major cities as well. Iran, with its fleet of fast patrol craft and arsenal of short-range rockets, is able to briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of about 18 million b/d to the world market, almost a fifth of global supply. Brent spikes over US$250 per barrel, before falling back to around US$150 with the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinating an emergency release of oil stocks from strategic reserves of its member countries and China releasing significant volumes from its now substantial strategic reserve as well. Under heavy bombardment and with their military resources running low, the Iranian leadership calls for an end in hostilities and negotiations, which the U.S. and its regional allies immediately agree upon. Through negotiations a détente is achieved in the Middle East, with the two sides agreeing to demarcate spheres of influence in the region. Saudi Arabia and the UAE agree to stop meddling in Iraq and Syria in return for Iran ending its meddling in Shiite areas of Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Lebanon is declared neutral territory. Iran agrees to mothball its nuclear program indefinitely and stop exporting weapons to its regional allies. Once hostilities cease, it takes two or more years for the price of Brent to fall back into a US$60-70 per range – given necessary repairs to war damaged oil facilities in the Persian Gulf region and the rebuilding of global oil inventories – where prices remain indefinitely, capped by the spreading Shale Oil Revolution. Download 0.83 Mb. Share with your friends:
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