Impact turns + answers – bfhmrs russia War Good
Democratic failures ensure Trump victory
Download 0.83 Mb.
|
Harbor Teacher Prep-subingsubing-Ho-Neg-Lamdl T1-Round3, Impact Turns Aff Neg - Michigan7 2019 BFHMRS
- Navigate this page:
- Hes ahead because of the economy ---a downturn could cost him
- Specifically on growth
Democratic failures ensure Trump victoryZack Jones 6-29-2019, "Trump 2020 Presidential Reelection Odds Highest Ever Following Democratic Debate," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2019/06/29/trump-2020-presidential-reelection-odds-highest-ever-following-democratic-debate/#6ba11ca410f8//HM Democratic Presidential candidates took center stage this week as two nights of debates gave Americans their first opportunity to view the party frontrunners go head-to-head over the country's most contentious topics. With political pundits deliberating which of the candidates came out on top in the first round of debates, sportsbooks have declared President Donald Trump the big winner and have improved his reelection odds to reflect this. Donald Trump's odds to win the 2020 Presidential election moved up to -110 just after the debates conclusion, giving him his best numbers since his initial election in 2016. Oddsmakers have set California Senator Kamala Harris as his closest competition at +500 to win the White House (risk $100 to win $500), and +250 to win the Democratic party nomination. Prior to the debates former Vice President was the heavy favorite to win the party's nomination, but his poor showing and lack of sincerity when defending a character attack directed his way from Harris, Biden's nomination odds slid from +175 to +325, opening the door for Harris to become the betting favorite. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders stuck to their leftist values, but while Warren performance likely appealed to her audience, Sanders appeared to get lost amongst the large field of candidates. Interestingly enough, it was Sanders who saw his odds improve from +800 to +600, while Warren's post debate odds were unchanged at +400. He's ahead because of the economy---a downturn could cost himBen White and Steven Shepard 19, 3-21-2019, "How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide," POLITICO, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/21/trump-economy-election-1230495//HM President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations. But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents. While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will. And other legal bombshells could explode the current scenario. Trump’s party managed to lose the House in 2018 despite a strong economy. So the models could wind up wrong this time around. Despite all these caveats, Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — “the economy, stupid” — holds true in 2020. “The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.” Models maintained by economists and market strategists like Luskin tend to ignore election polls and personal characteristics of candidates. Instead, they begin with historical trends and then build in key economic data including growth rates, wages, unemployment, inflation and gas prices to predict voting behavior and election outcomes. Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency. “Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fair’s model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trump’s share of the popular vote. Still, Luskin, Fair and other analysts who use economic data and voting history to make predictions also note that a sharp decline in growth and an increase in the unemployment rate by next fall could alter Trump’s fortunes. “It would have to slow a lot to still be not pretty good,” Luskin said, adding that what really matters is the pace of change. Even if overall numbers remain fairly strong, a sharp move in the wrong direction could alter voting behavior. Luskin’s current model — which looks at GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and payrolls — has Trump winning by a blowout margin of 294 electoral votes. The White House remains confident that the GOP tax cut will support growth of 3 percent both this year and next, keeping job and wage gains strong. That’s much higher than consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and major banks that generally see a global slowdown led by Europe and China, coupled with the fading impact of U.S. tax cuts pushing U.S. growth closer to 2 percent this year with job gains slowing. Specifically on growthDownload 0.83 Mb. Share with your friends:
|