_____________________________
Source: Armstat.
EXTERNAL SECTOR
Balance of Payments
The following table sets forth the balance of payments of Armenia for the periods indicated:
Balance of Payments of Armenia in Dollars(1)(2)
|
For the year ended 31 December
|
For the nine months ended 30 September
|
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014(3)
|
|
(U.S.$ millions)
|
Current account
|
(1,520.4)
|
(1,318.2)
|
(1,123.5)
|
(1,103.8)
|
(839.2)
|
(619.6)
|
(805.6)
|
Goods and services
|
(2,461.2)
|
(2,383.2)
|
(2,240.3)
|
(2,259.5)
|
(2,204.4)
|
(1,486.7)
|
(1,516.5)
|
Export
|
1,366.3
|
1,975.6
|
2,467.9
|
2,554.4
|
2,733.5
|
1,972.0
|
2,461.1
|
Import
|
3,827.5
|
4,358.8
|
4,708.2
|
4,813.8
|
4,937.9
|
3,458.8
|
3,977.7
|
Goods
|
(2,090.0)
|
(2,065.7)
|
(2,109.8)
|
(2,111.9)
|
(2,092.3)
|
(1,391.7)
|
(1,493.2)
|
Export
|
773.6
|
1,197.5
|
1,431.6
|
1,515.7
|
1,635.9
|
1,197.2
|
1,216.2
|
Import
|
2,863.6
|
3,263.2
|
3,541.4
|
3,627.6
|
3,728.1
|
2,588.9
|
2,709.4
|
Services
|
(371.2)
|
(317.5)
|
(130.5)
|
(147.6)
|
(112.1)
|
(95.0)
|
(23.3)
|
Export
|
592.7
|
778.1
|
1,036.3
|
1,038.7
|
1,097.7
|
774.8
|
1,245.0
|
Import
|
963.9
|
1,095.6
|
1,166.8
|
1,186.2
|
1,209.8
|
869.8
|
1,268.3
|
Investment income and employee compensation
|
358.8
|
458.3
|
360.1
|
423.1
|
540.5
|
310.3
|
169.0
|
Received
|
875.8
|
1,049.1
|
1,065.5
|
1,115.2
|
1,259.1
|
809.0
|
855.3
|
Paid
|
517.0
|
590.8
|
705.5
|
692.2
|
718.5
|
498.7
|
686.3
|
Employee compensation(4)
|
760.5
|
909.2
|
855.9
|
915.0
|
1,051.0
|
661.1
|
688.0
|
Received
|
837.6
|
1,008.2
|
1,008.6
|
1,071.2
|
1,228.3
|
786.0
|
832.0
|
Paid
|
77.1
|
98.9
|
152.7
|
156.1
|
177.3
|
124.9
|
144.0
|
Investment income(5)
|
(401.7)
|
(451.0)
|
(495.8)
|
(492.0)
|
(510.5)
|
(350.8)
|
(519.0)
|
Received
|
38.2
|
40.9
|
57.0
|
44.0
|
30.7
|
23.0
|
23.3
|
Paid
|
439.9
|
491.9
|
552.8
|
536.0
|
541.2
|
373.7
|
542.3
|
Current transfers(6)
|
582.0
|
606.8
|
756.7
|
732.6
|
824.6
|
556.8
|
541.9
|
Received
|
750.3
|
813.5
|
997.9
|
990.3
|
1,117.9
|
755.9
|
770.1
|
Paid
|
168.3
|
206.7
|
241.2
|
257.7
|
293.4
|
199.1
|
228.3
|
Capital account
|
87.9
|
98.9
|
94.6
|
107.7
|
76.1
|
51.3
|
45.2
|
Capital transfers(7)
|
87.9
|
98.9
|
94.6
|
107.7
|
76.1
|
51.3
|
45.2
|
Received
|
103.0
|
111.0
|
113.5
|
128.5
|
94.7
|
63.4
|
56.2
|
Paid
|
15.1
|
12.1
|
18.9
|
20.8
|
18.7
|
12.2
|
11.0
|
Financial account
|
(1,440.0)
|
(1,318.5)
|
(1,000.9)
|
(750.6)
|
(1,030.2)
|
(556.1)
|
(640.4)
|
Direct investment(8)
|
(709.6)
|
(521.4)
|
(437.3)
|
(473.0)
|
(351.5)
|
(254.4)
|
(359.3)
|
Assets
|
50.4
|
7.9
|
215.9
|
15.8
|
18.7
|
14.0
|
12.7
|
Liabilities
|
760.0
|
529.3
|
653.2
|
488.8
|
370.2
|
268.4
|
371.9
|
Portfolio investment(9)
|
4.2
|
(18.3)
|
8.4
|
(0.8)
|
(689.1)
|
(687.7)
|
47.4
|
Assets
|
11.3
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
1.1
|
5.4
|
0.5
|
4.7
|
Liabilities
|
7.2
|
19.2
|
(8.4)
|
2.0
|
694.5
|
688.2
|
(42.7)
|
Financial derivatives (other than reserves) and employee stock options
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
(0.6)
|
(0.3)
|
0.5
|
Other investment(10)
|
(1,334.8)
|
(650.0)
|
(704.8)
|
(228.5)
|
(459.7)
|
(262.6)
|
191.0
|
Assets
|
281.3
|
133.2
|
120.8
|
151.9
|
(88.6)
|
147.6
|
33.9
|
Other equity
|
0.3
|
1.9
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
3.1
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
Currency and deposits
|
111.2
|
38.5
|
104.1
|
190.9
|
(107.5)
|
123.5
|
(62.2)
|
Trade credits
|
11.0
|
12.7
|
17.0
|
1.2
|
(0.5)
|
10.9
|
28.8
|
Loans extended
|
120.2
|
72.3
|
(16.2)
|
(48.0)
|
24.1
|
20.2
|
48.9
|
Insurance, pension and standardized guarantee schemes
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.1
|
3.7
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
Other assets
|
38.6
|
7.7
|
13.5
|
4.0
|
(11.6)
|
(12.3)
|
15.3
|
Liabilities
|
1,616.2
|
783.2
|
825.6
|
380.4
|
371.1
|
410.1
|
(157.1)
|
Other equity
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Currency and deposits
|
52.6
|
54.4
|
213.9
|
(14.8)
|
437.7
|
203.5
|
(131.5)
|
Trade credits
|
50.0
|
14.1
|
27.2
|
62.0
|
8.8
|
6.9
|
(14.4)
|
Loans extended
|
1,375.8
|
689.6
|
563.7
|
298.6
|
(83.3)
|
200.1
|
(21.3)
|
Insurance, pension and standardized guarantee schemes
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
Other assets
|
0.1
|
25.1
|
20.5
|
34.3
|
7.9
|
(0.6)
|
10.1
|
Special drawing rights (net incurrence of liabilities)
|
137.7
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Change in reserve assets (increase)
|
600.3
|
(128.7)
|
132.9
|
(48.3)
|
470.6
|
648.8
|
(520.0)
|
Net errors and omissions
|
(7.5)
|
(99.2)
|
28.0
|
245.6
|
(267.1)
|
12.3
|
120.0
|
_____________________________
Notes:
Figures in this table are presented in accordance with the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual—6th Edition and are current as of 31 December 2014.
For those transactions denominated in currencies other than the dollar, conversions into dollars are made using period-average exchange rates.
Data for nine months of 2014 is preliminary.
Employee compensation reflects wages and other payments received by residents of Armenia who carry out temporary or seasonal work abroad , as well as wages received by residents of Armenia for work at embassies and international organisations in Armenia.
Net investment income reflects net income received by residents of Armenia from investments abroad or paid by residents of Armenia for capital attracted from abroad.
Current transfers reflect monetary or in-kind transfers from abroad, except for transfers related to fixed assets which are included in capital transfers. Current transfers include both public transfers and transfers by individuals working abroad on a long-term basis to residents of Armenia.
Capital transfers comprise transfers received/paid for the acquisition of fixed assets or for construction work, and also include debt forgiveness.
Direct investments reflect international investment activities when a resident obtains influence in a company of another country by means of investments. Direct investments in equity and reinvested earnings are included in direct investments.
Portfolio investments consist of investments in securities issued by nonresidents of Armenia which are otherwise not included under direct investment.
Other investments comprise all investments which are not otherwise classified as direct or portfolio investments.
Source: CBA.
The following table sets forth certain key figures from Armenia’s balance of payments as a percentage of GDP for the periods indicated:
Key Balance of Payments Figures of Armenia as a Percentage of GDP(1)(2)(3)
|
For the year ended 31 December
|
For the nine months ended 30 September
|
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014(4)
|
|
(% of GDP)
|
Current account
|
(17.6)
|
(14.2)
|
(11.1)
|
(11.1)
|
(8.0)
|
(8.3)
|
(11.4)
|
Goods and services
|
(28.5)
|
(25.7)
|
(22.1)
|
(22.7)
|
(21.1)
|
(19.9)
|
(21.4)
|
Investment income and employee compensation
|
4.1
|
4.9
|
3.6
|
4.2
|
5.2
|
4.2
|
2.4
|
Current transfers
|
6.7
|
6.6
|
7.5
|
7.4
|
7.9
|
7.4
|
7.6
|
Capital account
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
Financial account
|
(16.7)
|
(14.2)
|
(9.9)
|
(7.5)
|
(9.9)
|
(7.4)
|
(9.0)
|
Direct investment
|
(8.2)
|
(5.6)
|
(4.3)
|
(4.7)
|
(3.4)
|
(3.4)
|
(5.1)
|
Assets
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
2.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
Liabilities
|
8.8
|
5.7
|
6.4
|
4.9
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
5.2
|
Portfolio investment
|
0.0
|
(0.2)
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
(6.6)
|
(9.2)
|
0.7
|
Assets
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
Liabilities
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
(0.1)
|
0.0
|
6.7
|
9.2
|
(0.6)
|
Other investment
|
(15.4)
|
(7.0)
|
(6.9)
|
(2.3)
|
(4.4)
|
(3.5)
|
2.7
|
Assets
|
3.3
|
(5.5)
|
(2.7)
|
(0.9)
|
(0.6)
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
Liabilities
|
18.7
|
8.5
|
8.1
|
3.8
|
3.6
|
5.5
|
(2.2)
|
Change in reserve assets (increase)
|
6.9
|
(1.4)
|
1.3
|
(0.5)
|
4.5
|
8.7
|
(7.3)
|
Net errors and omissions
|
(0.1)
|
(1.1)
|
0.3
|
2.5
|
(2.6)
|
0.2
|
1.7
|
_____________________________
Notes:
(1) Figures in this table are current as of 31 December 2014.
(2) For those transactions denominated in currencies other than the dollar, conversions into dollars are made using period-average exchange rates.
(3) Calculated as a percentage of Armenia’s nominal GDP converted in dollars, using the average AMD/U.S.$ exchange rates for the respective period.
(4) Data for nine months of 2014 is preliminary.
Source: CBA.
Current Account
Between 2009 and 2013 and in the nine months ended 30 September 2014, Armenia recorded substantial current account deficits, driven largely by high trade deficits that in turn were caused by the value of imports outpacing the value of exports.
In 2010, compared to 2009, the trade deficit (including services) declined by 3.2%, with growth recorded in the value of both exports and imports. Both current transfers and the compensation of Armenian employees working abroad recovered in 2010 from lower levels in 2009, thereby reducing the current account deficit. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit declined to 14.2% in 2010 from 17.6% in 2009.
In 2011, compared to 2010, the trade deficit (including services) decreased by 6.0% and current transfers rose by 24.7%. As a result, the current account deficit declined by 14.8% in 2011. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit declined to 11.1% in 2011 from 14.2% in 2010, supported also by 9.2% growth in nominal GDP.
In 2012, compared to 2011, the trade deficit (including services) increased by 0.9%. The current account deficit, however, decreased in 2012 mainly due to a 6.9% increase in net inflows of employee compensation. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit held steady in 2012 compared to 2011 at 11.1%.
In 2013, the trade deficit (including services) decreased by 2.4% compared to 2012 due to exports increasing at a faster rate than imports: exports of goods and services increased by 7.0%, while imports of goods and services increased by 2.6%. The current account deficit declined by 24.0% in 2013 compared to 2012 due to the lower trade deficit, but also to a 14.9% increase in employee compensation inflows and an 12.6% increase in inbound current transfers, reflecting growth in remittances sent from abroad. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit declined to 8.0% in 2013 compared to 11.1% in 2012.
In the nine months ended 30 September 2014, the trade deficit (including services) increased by 2.0% compared to the nine months ended 30 September 2013 due to a 24.8% increase in exports and a 15.0% increase in imports. The current account deficit increased by 30.0% in the first nine month of 2014 compared to the first nine month of 2013 due to the higher trade deficit, but also to a 47.9% increase in outflows of investment income, which, in turn, reflected Gazprom Armenia’s reinvestment of earnings in the first quarter of 2014 (which is reflected as an outflow in the current account, while at the same time as an inflow of FDI in the capital account). See “—Economy of Armenia—Energy—Petroleum Products and Natural Gas.” As a share of GDP, the current account deficit increased to 11.4% in the nine months ended 30 September 2014 from 8.3% in the nine months ended 30 September 2013.
Capital and Financial Account
The current account deficit is financed mainly by FDI inflows and external borrowing (both public and private), together with inbound current transfers and net inflows of employee compensation. See “—Current Account.”
In 2009 and 2010, net FDI in Armenia declined, and as a result Armenia’s current account deficit was financed largely through external financing. See “—FDI.” In 2010, net direct investments (i.e., net FDI) declined by 26.5% and net other investments fell by 51.3%, compared to 2009. The decline in net other investments was mainly due to a decrease in loans received from abroad to U.S.$689.6 million in 2010 from U.S.$1,375.8 million in 2009. The unprecedented high level of loans received in 2009 was mainly due to the U.S.$500 million loan from Russia, a U.S.$465 million loan from the IMF (of which the Government received U.S.$158 million and the CBA received U.S.$307 million), a U.S.$64 million from the IDA and a U.S.$81 million loan from the Asian Development Bank/Asian Development Fund.
In 2011, as the current account deficit improved, Armenia recorded a 16.1% decline in net direct investments driven by an increase in Armenian investment abroad, which was partially offset by an increase in foreign investment in Armenia. External financing through loans also declined in 2011, as the value of loans received from abroad fell by 21.3% compared to 2010. Despite the decrease in external loans, net other investments increased by 8.4% in 2011 mainly as a result of an inflow of bank funds into currency and deposits.
In 2012, compared to 2011, net direct investments increased by 8.2% and net other investments decreased by 67.6%. Net direct investments increased due to a decline in Armenian direct investments abroad, which was partially offset by a decline in foreign investment inflows. See “—FDI.” The decline in net other investmens was in large part attributable to a 47.0% decline in loans received from abroad.
In 2013, compared to 2012, net direct investments decreased by 25.7%, mainly as a result of lower FDI in Armenia. See “—FDI.” However, in 2013, for the first time during the years under review, portfolio investment flows had a material impact on Armenia’s balance of payments. In 2013, the country recorded portfolio investment inflows of U.S.$694.5 million (or 6.9% of GDP), which reflected proceeds received from the 2013 Eurobond issuance. Net other investments increased by 101.2% driven by a rapid decline in the outflow of capital to foreign currencies and non-resident bank deposits.
In the nine months ended 30 September 2014, compared to the nine months ended 30 September 2013, net direct investments increased by 41.2% as a result of higher FDI in Armenia. See “—FDI.” Armenia recorded net other investment outflows of U.S.$191 million in the nine months ended 30 September 2014 compared to U.S.$262.6 million of inflow in the nine months ended 30 September 2013 on account of net debt servicing of the banking sector as well as the accumulation of foreign assets in the non-banking private sector.
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