Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files
Plan-specific Link: Mexico 307
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- Plan-specific Link: Venezuelan Democracy 308
- Plan-specific Link: Cuban Ethanol [1/3] 309
Plan-specific Link: Mexico 3071) Congressional approval is necessary for any changes in funding to Mexico, and Congress doesn’t agree with Mexican government priorities. SEELKE AND FINKLEA, 13 [Clare, Specialist in Latin American Affairs; Kristin, Analyst in Domestic Security with Congressional Research Service; “U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Mérida Initiative and Beyond,” 1/14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41349.pdf] As President Peña Nieto implements his security strategy, the 113th Congress may examine how the Mexican government’s priorities align with U.S. interests. Congressional approval will be needed should the State Department seek to reprogram some of the $800 million already in the pipeline for Mérida, or shift new funding to better align with Mexico’s new priorities. And, should conflicts occur between Mexican and U.S. priorities, Congress may choose to weigh in on how those conflicts should be resolved. For example, President Peña Nieto has said that the success of his strategy will be measured in reductions in homicides and other crimes, rather than in drugs seized or kingpins arrested. This shift could potentially create some tension with U.S. efforts to combat Mexico’s transnational criminal organizations. Any move by the Peña Nieto government to negotiate with criminal groups, as the Salvadoran government has done, and/or legalize certain drugs would likely prompt congressional concerns. Plan-specific Link: Venezuelan Democracy 3081) House Republicans control the agenda, and they are strongly opposed to any legislation helping Venezuela. WOLA, 10 [Adam Isaacson, Washington Office on Latin America,“The House Republicans and Latin America” 11/03, http://www.wola.org/the_house_republicans_and_latin_america] Having majority control of a chamber of Congress means having overwhelming control of that chamber’s agenda. In the House, the Republican Party leadership will decide what legislation gets debated and voted on the floor (in plenary). It gets to write the first draft of every budget bill, starting next year with those for 2012. And they get the chairmanships of all committees, which hold hearings, draft and approve legislation. Legislation approved by the House must also pass the Democratic-controlled Senate. The two houses must then reconcile differences in the legislation, which may prove to be very difficult. Then, bills must ultimately be signed into law by Democratic President Barack Obama, who could refuse to do so if he objects strongly to provisions that come out of the Republican House’s version. In general, the new Republican House majority favors: A tougher stance toward leftist governments, especially Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia. Legislative efforts to soften the Cuba trade embargo or travel ban will face huge obstacles. Expect more resolutions, legislative language and hearings criticizing human rights abuses, evidence of democratic weakening, ties to Iran and other non-democratic regimes, or increased narco-trafficking activity in Venezuela or Bolivia. Plan-specific Link: Cuban Ethanol [1/3] 3091) Corn-based ethanol has extremely strong political support from key states like Iowa. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] Due to a number of circumstances, some of them coincidental, the states with the most to gain from federal policies supporting corn-based ethanol have in recent years been some of the most politically influential states. Iowa’s disproportionate political influence as the home of the country’s first presidential nominating contest is a notorious idiosyncrasy of the U.S. political process, 31 but this is far from the only political quirk that has benefitted the domestic ethanol industry. In the twenty-year period between 1985 and 2005, the Senate Majority or Minority Leader of either the Republican or Democratic parties was from the Midwest. 32 In the eight-year period between 1999 and 2007, the Speaker of the House 33 was from Illinois, the number two state for corn production. Additionally, during the six-year period from 1989 and 1995, the House Democratic Leader 34 not only represented Missouri, a top ten corn producer state, 35 but also represented the congressional district containing the headquarters for Monsanto, a major global agricultural corporation heavily involved in U.S. corn production. 36 Thus, in the two-decade period between the mid-1980s and mid-2000s, the U.S. corn industry had a “perfect storm” of circumstances giving it political influence and the opportunity to favorably shape U.S. agricultural policy. 2) Increasing ethanol imports will crush the economies of key political Midwest states. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] Unless Congress raises the RFS by a sufficient degree to absorb all domestic ethanol production on top of these new imports, the increase in such imports would likely damage the domestic ethanol industry. “Whatever the level or type of biofuel, increased imports (holding other factors constant) would reduce the quantity of domestically produced biofuels, which would reduce the demand for biofuel feedstocks.” 138 Because very little ethanol is currently imported into the United States, law and policy changes that successfully fostered the development of a Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol industry would have a significant economic impact on the United States. Such a change would have the largest economic effect on two regions: the Midwest, which is currently the primary source of ethanol production in the United States, and the Southeast, especially Florida. This Part of the Article will discuss the likely economic effects of such policy changes first on the Midwest, then on Florida, then on the United States generally. 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