Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files
NC Frontline – Solvency 158
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- 2NC Extension Solvency - 1 “No Political Will” 1 59
- 2NC Extension Solvency - 2 “Bad Business Climate” 1 60
1NC Frontline – Solvency 1582) Cuban governmental policies are anti-business which will hurt foreign investment and prevent domestic industry. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] Additionally, because Cuba’s ethanol industry is currently almost nonexistent, it will need a great deal of foreign expertise and investment to get started. However, such investments are unlikely to be made unless Cuba makes fundamental changes in its business climate. In the words of Gonzalez and McCarthy, “[C]apital investment, which Cuba’s economy desperately needs and which is most likely to be supplied by foreign investors, will be difficult to attract without enforceable contracts, access to neutral adjudication of disputes, and a degree of predictability that has heretofore been lacking.” Any post-Castro government will likely begin to make such changes to increase the appeal of the island nation to foreign investment. However, implementing these changes will take time and trial and error, which will slow the creation of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry. 3) Brazil is already ramping up diplomatic pressure on Cuba to develop sugarcane ethanol, and it is more influential than the United States. REUTERS, 12 [Brian Wilson, staff writer; “Insight: U.S. and Brazil - At last, friends on ethanol,” 9/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/14/us-brazil-us-ethanol-idUSBRE88D19520120914] Brazil and the United States have stepped up their lobbying in recent months. Pilot ethanol programs to introduce the biofuel to consumers with blend requirements are set to begin in three countries, starting in Honduras by early 2013, another U.S. official said. To accelerate the process, Brazil and the United States are planning presentations in coming months to attract new investors interested in biofuel projects in the three countries, officials said. Brazil's growing diplomatic clout has been critical to opening doors in countries where the nation has deep strategic or cultural connections, such as Senegal, Mozambique and Haiti. And it is uniquely equipped to exert influence in Cuba. 2NC Extension Solvency - #1 “No Political Will” 1591) Cuba does not have the domestic political will to invest in ethanol production even if the U.S. creates a market, and there is not enough economic demand within Cuba for fuel to drive investment. Extend our SPECHT evidence. 2) The Cuban government will not allow the sugar cane industry to grow out of respect for Fidel Castro’s wishes. CUBA HEADLINES, 8 [“After Castro Cuban Ethanol Boom Doubtful?” 02/28, http://www.cubaheadlines.com/2008/02/28/9457/after_castro_cuban_ethanol_boom_doubtful.html] Fidel Castro's retirement this week fueled speculation that ethanol could become a billion-dollar export industry for the cash-strapped communist country under his brother Raul Castro. But Fidel Castro is expected to retain huge influence in Cuba and he has repeatedly branded the use of food crops to produce fuel as a crime against humanity because rising prices will increase hunger. A local economist with ties to the sugar industry said Cuba is working to develop technology to produce fuel from milled sugar cane bagasse. If successful, Cuba could become more interested in making ethanol, he said. "It is inconceivable while Fidel is still alive that his brother Raul, or anyone else, would convert a significant proportion of our sugar crop or vacant land to ethanol," the economist said, asking not to be identified. "Even after Fidel dies, I can't imagine that happening for quite some time," he said. Currently, ethanol is obtained from sugar cane juice and cannot be made from bagasse, but new research is focusing on cellulose technology that could make this possible. Cuba was once the world's largest sugar exporter. In 1990, it produced 8 million tonnes of raw sugar. But the fall of the Soviet Union, low prices and bad management left the industry in ruins. The 2006-2007 harvest was just 1.2 million tonnes. Sugar is no longer a major export earner and Cuba, in fact, has been importing about 200,000 tonnes a year of low grade whites to cover domestic consumption. Ronald Soligo, an energy economist at Rice University in Houston, said Cuba could produce about 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually if it returned to sugar cane yields prevalent when the Soviet Union was buying its sugar at inflated prices. At that time, in the 1980s, yields were 55 tons per hectare, but have fallen to 22 tons, he said in Miami at a Florida International University conference on Cuba. "It appears that sugar cane ethanol really is an opportunity for Cuba to supplement, replace some of its imported fuel and maybe even to export ethanol," he said. Some experts believe Cuba could become the world's third ethanol producer after the United States and Brazil, but that would require huge investments, not just to improve its cane harvests, but also to finance the research and construction of distilleries. The government, however, has been reluctant to allow foreign companies to administer farms, a precondition for any business wanting to invest in agriculture in Cuba. 2NC Extension Solvency - #2 “Bad Business Climate” 1601) Cuba has a poor business model, including lack of protection for contracts and dispute mechanisms which prevent companies from setting up new factories in Cuba. Any reforms will take a long time to implement. Extend our SPECHT evidence. 2) Communism has left Cuba without any skilled workers to get the ethanol industry off the ground. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] Like all new capitalist industries to emerge in the post-Castro era, whatever ethanol industry arises will have to deal with the painful transition from socialism to capitalism. The Cuban sugarcane ethanol industry will face similar challenges to other private sector industries that arise in the post-Fidel era. One of these challenges will be simply a lack of people with skills necessary for any industry. According to Edward Gonzalez and Kevin McCarthy of the RAND Corporation, “[A]s a result of 40-plus years of communism, the labor force lacks the kinds of trained managers, accountants, auditors, bankers, insurers, etc., that a robust market economy requires.” While these challenges will not be unique to Cuba’s ethanol industry, they will put the country at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis existing ethanol exporters such as Brazil. This will be especially true if there is a significant lag time between the expiration of the ethanol tariff barriers at the end of 2011 and the eventual removal of the United States trade embargo against Cuba. 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