Predicted track vector : Initial (at T0) to predicted (at T0+24H or T0+36H) positions
3.7 Japan
3.7.1 Global Spectral Model (GSM 9603)
All the statistics shown below are made for tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific during the years of 1996-1998 and are calculated against the TC RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Best Track data.
-
GSM – Mean position error and skill compared with persistence (PER)
|
TIME
|
MODEL
|
RECURVATURE
|
ALL
|
BEFORE
|
DURING
|
AFTER
|
T+12
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
101.0
96.5
-4.6%
(397)
|
102.1
107.2
4.7%
(160)
|
112.1
123.0
8.9%
(245)
|
104.6
106.7
2.9%
(802)
|
T+24
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
156.0
184.3
15.4%
(352)
|
155.1
203.2
23.7%
(143)
|
175.3
273.3
35.9%
(234)
|
162.0
216.5
25.2%
(729)
|
T+36
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
201.3
281.0
28.4%
(308)
|
202.8
321.7
36.9%
(128)
|
236.5
447.7
47.2%
(220)
|
213.4
344.8
38.1%
(656)
|
T+48
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
239.2
402.1
40.5%
(264)
|
249.4
432.7
42.3%
(113)
|
310.9
636.1
51.1%
(211)
|
266.9
491.9
45.7%
(588)
|
T+60
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
287.1
507.3
44.3%
(222)
|
287.9
572.9
49.7%
(102)
|
408.9
826.3
50.5%
(203)
|
334.2
642.8
48.0%
(527)
|
T+72
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
332.6
613.3
45.8%
(187)
|
344.6
730.2
52.8%
(88)
|
490.8
1001.5
51.0%
(184)
|
398.3
791.4
49.7%
(459)
|
T+84
(num. of cases)
|
GSM
PER
Skill
|
371.3
726.7
48.9%
(155)
|
404.9
798.1
49.3%
(74)
|
585.1
1234.4
52.6%
(174)
|
469.8
959.0
51.0%
(403)
|
Table 3.7.1.1: Mean error (km) of GSM central positions, stratified according to stage of motion with respect to recurvature, and skill (%) compared with persistence. ‘Before’, ‘During’, and ‘After’ mean TC’s moving to directions in 180-320 deg, 320-10deg, and 10-180 deg, respectively. ‘Skill’ is defined as 100 x (PER-GSM)/PER.
(ii) GSM – Distribution of central position errors
-
Error (km)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
> 1000
|
0
|
1
|
16
|
950 – 1000
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
900 – 950
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
850 – 900
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
800 – 850
|
0
|
1
|
8
|
750 – 800
|
0
|
2
|
12
|
700 – 750
|
0
|
3
|
11
|
650 – 700
|
0
|
5
|
14
|
600 – 650
|
0
|
3
|
11
|
550 – 600
|
1
|
16
|
26
|
500 – 550
|
3
|
18
|
25
|
450 – 500
|
6
|
36
|
22
|
400 – 450
|
10
|
23
|
43
|
350 – 400
|
25
|
40
|
34
|
300 – 350
|
33
|
63
|
36
|
250 – 300
|
56
|
66
|
47
|
200 – 250
|
71
|
68
|
42
|
150 – 200
|
135
|
89
|
36
|
100 – 150
|
159
|
58
|
32
|
50 – 100
|
143
|
62
|
31
|
0 – 50
|
86
|
30
|
6
|
Table 3.7.1.2: Distribution of GSM central position errors (km), stratified in ranges of 50 km.
(iii) GSM – Distribution of central pressure errors
-
Error (hPa)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
>42.5
|
99
|
126
|
115
|
37.5 - 42.5
|
37
|
24
|
35
|
32.5 - 37.5
|
32
|
41
|
26
|
27.5 - 32.5
|
47
|
35
|
39
|
22.5 - 27.5
|
58
|
54
|
39
|
17.5 - 22.5
|
73
|
58
|
39
|
12.5 - 17.5
|
100
|
64
|
34
|
7.5 - 12.5
|
129
|
76
|
38
|
2.5 - 7.5
|
100
|
55
|
43
|
-2.5 - 2.5
|
48
|
42
|
30
|
-7.5 - -2.5
|
5
|
8
|
19
|
-12.5 - -7.5
|
1
|
5
|
1
|
-17.5 - -12.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-22.5 - -17.5
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
-27.5 - -22.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-32.5 - -27.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-37.5 - -32.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-42.5 - -37.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
< -42.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Table 3.7.1.3: Distribution of GSM central pressure errors (hPa), stratified in ranges of 5 hPa.
(iv) GSM – Distribution of maximum sustained wind errors
-
Error (ms-1)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
> 18.75
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
16.25 - 18.75
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
13.75 - 16.25
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
11.25 - 13.75
|
12
|
4
|
3
|
8.75 - 11.25
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
6.25 - 8.75
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
3.75 - 6.25
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1.25 - 3.75
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-1.25 - 1.25
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
-3.75 - -1.25
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
-6.25 - -3.75
|
61
|
39
|
23
|
-8.75 - -6.25
|
101
|
53
|
40
|
-11.25 - -8.75
|
100
|
61
|
39
|
-13.75 - -11.25
|
77
|
67
|
29
|
-16.25 - -13.75
|
106
|
64
|
44
|
-18.75 - -16.25
|
121
|
123
|
101
|
< - 18.75 - -18.75
|
116
|
149
|
150
|
Table 3.7.1.4: Distribution of GSM maximum sustained wind errors (ms-1), stratified in ranges of 2.5 ms-1.
3.7.2 Typhoon Model (TYM 9603)
All the statistics shown below are made for tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific during the three years of 1996 – 1998 and are calculated against the TC RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center Best Track data.
-
TYM – Mean position error and skill compared with persistence (PER)
|
TIME
|
MODEL
|
RECURVATURE
|
ALL
|
BEFORE
|
DURING
|
AFTER
|
T+12
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
101.7
102.3
0.6%
(379)
|
99.6
107.3
7.2%
(153)
|
105.6
126.8
16.8%
(239)
|
102.5
110.9
7.6%
(771)
|
T+24
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
157.8
188.9
16.5%
(335)
|
156.4
209.0
25.2%
(134)
|
167.8
273.6
38.7%
(230)
|
160.8
220.6
27.1%
(699)
|
T+36
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
203.7
285.9
28.7%
(292)
|
198.3
332.5
40.3%
(121)
|
246.9
452.3
45.4%
(218)
|
217.6
352.3
38.2%
(631)
|
T+48
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
251.3
399.5
37.1%
(254)
|
249.7
418.2
40.3%
(107)
|
328.5
657.1
50.0%
(211)
|
279.4
498.0
43.9%
(572)
|
T+60
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
310.1
511.0
39.3%
(213)
|
302.7
555.2
49.3%
(98)
|
428.6
862.0
50.3%
(199)
|
354.9
656.4
45.9%
(510)
|
T+72
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
359.7
591.2
39.2%
(182)
|
369.1
724.5
49.0%
(84)
|
532.7
1058.6
49.7%
(186)
|
432.6
808.3
46.5%
(452)
|
T+84
(num. of cases)
|
TYM
PER
Skill
|
386.3
665.5
41.9%
(171)
|
363.3
716.9
49.3%
(74)
|
575.3
1181.0
51.3%
(181)
|
462.6
893.4
48.2%
(426)
|
Table 3.7.1.1: Mean error (km) of TYM central positions, stratified according to stage of motion with respect to recurvature, and skill (%) compared with persistence. ‘Before’, ‘During’, and ‘After’ mean TC’s moving to directions in 180-320 deg, 320-10deg, and 10-180 deg, respectively. ‘Skill’ is defined as 100 x (PER-TYM)/PER.
(ii) TYM – Distribution of central position errors
-
Error (km)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
> 1000
|
0
|
2
|
23
|
950 – 1000
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
900 – 950
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
850 – 900
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
800 – 850
|
0
|
4
|
9
|
750 – 800
|
1
|
2
|
11
|
700 – 750
|
0
|
4
|
10
|
650 – 700
|
0
|
7
|
13
|
600 – 650
|
0
|
8
|
17
|
550 – 600
|
2
|
6
|
23
|
500 – 550
|
3
|
16
|
23
|
450 – 500
|
4
|
29
|
22
|
400 – 450
|
12
|
31
|
36
|
350 – 400
|
19
|
55
|
35
|
300 – 350
|
28
|
48
|
39
|
250 – 300
|
46
|
66
|
35
|
200 – 250
|
77
|
64
|
53
|
150 – 200
|
120
|
93
|
40
|
100 – 150
|
184
|
63
|
23
|
50 – 100
|
144
|
47
|
21
|
0 – 50
|
59
|
22
|
6
|
Table 3.7.2.2: Distribution of TYM central position errors (km), stratified in ranges of 50 km.
(iii) TYM – Distribution of central pressure errors
-
Error (hPa)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
>42.5
|
35
|
43
|
45
|
37.5 - 42.5
|
13
|
17
|
24
|
32.5 - 37.5
|
14
|
29
|
15
|
27.5 - 32.5
|
34
|
26
|
21
|
22.5 - 27.5
|
42
|
31
|
34
|
17.5 - 22.5
|
51
|
35
|
31
|
12.5 - 17.5
|
70
|
53
|
31
|
7.5 - 12.5
|
95
|
70
|
47
|
2.5 - 7.5
|
116
|
93
|
55
|
-2.5 - 2.5
|
120
|
69
|
49
|
-7.5 - -2.5
|
70
|
51
|
36
|
-12.5 - -7.5
|
22
|
29
|
34
|
-17.5 - -12.5
|
14
|
20
|
14
|
-22.5 - -17.5
|
1
|
3
|
12
|
-27.5 - -22.5
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
-32.5 - -27.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-37.5 - -32.5
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
-42.5 - -37.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
< -42.5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Table 3.7.2.3: Distribution of TYM central pressure errors (hPa), stratified in ranges of 5 hPa.
(iv) TYM – Distribution of maximum sustained wind errors
-
Error (ms-1)
|
Number of predictions
|
|
T+24
|
T+48
|
T+72
|
> 18.75
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
16.25 - 18.75
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
13.75 - 16.25
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
11.25 - 13.75
|
10
|
12
|
9
|
8.75 - 11.25
|
25
|
20
|
11
|
6.25 - 8.75
|
40
|
30
|
30
|
3.75 - 6.25
|
79
|
55
|
33
|
1.25 - 3.75
|
85
|
72
|
51
|
-1.25 - 1.25
|
118
|
76
|
61
|
-3.75 - -1.25
|
103
|
79
|
55
|
-6.25 - -3.75
|
72
|
66
|
30
|
-8.75 - -6.25
|
66
|
43
|
40
|
-11.25 - -8.75
|
33
|
30
|
39
|
-13.75 - -11.25
|
30
|
27
|
28
|
-16.25 - -13.75
|
6
|
12
|
24
|
-18.75 - -16.25
|
4
|
20
|
17
|
< - 18.75 - -18.75
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
Table 3.7.2.4: Distribution of TYM maximum sustained wind errors (ms-1), stratified in ranges of 2.5 ms-1.
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