The working group on risk management in
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| 3.4.4. The Way Forward Improved weather forecasting and associated early warning systems, have immensely contributed immensely, to reducing fatalities due to floods and windstorms, despite the increase in their frequency. Though there is a decreasing trend in the number of fatalities since the late s, an area of major concern is that response times within 48 hours could save a lot of lives. However, this range of lead time, is too short to protect livelihood assets such as crops, livestock and household assets. The impact of natural hazards on the rural livelihood system, has therefore, been a major concern. National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, has been generating weather information up to 5 days in recent years.Global climate centers, such as the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP/USNOAA), Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere Studies (COLA, and the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service, provide medium range outlooks of precipitation and temperature, from to 8-14 days into the future. The lead-time provided by these forecast products, is sufficient for decisions to preserve livelihoods. However, these products have been available only in the last 5-6 years, and applications have not yet been institutionalized, although attempts to use these in disaster management have been made. With a lead-time of 5-7 days, the forecast is most useful in agriculture, water resource and disaster management. Specifically, the following application potentials have been identified: • Timing of planting and harvesting • Undertaking mid-season corrections and crop lifesaving measures wherever possible • Reducing harvest storage losses • Protection of young seedlings crops from flood • Protective measures to save assets and livestock • Enabling farmers to preserve investments and retain capacity to undertake next cropping • Planning flood response activities • Precautionary measures to protect infrastructure (e.g. growth centers, food silos, embankments, etc.) • Alternate water usage and buffering programs to provide water security Warning and response systems are yet to take advantage of the 5-7 days lead time, provided by weather forecasts, to preserve livelihoods. Download 0.68 Mb. Share with your friends:
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