Japan Aff Michigan 2010 / ccgjp lab – 7wks



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Japan Aff Michigan 2010

/ CCGJP Lab – 7wks

Japan Withdrawal Affirmative/Negative





Japan Withdrawal Affirmative/Negative 1

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [1/10] 6



***Aff 6

***Aff 6


Observation One – Inherency 6

Despite protests, the United States is committed to expanding its military presence in Japan – plans are in place to expand to Nago 6

Johnson, 2010 [Chalmers, Professor Emeritus of the University of California—San Diego and President and Co-founder of the Japan Policy Research Institute; “Another battle of Okinawa,” May 6; Accessed online at 6

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should substantially reduce its military presence through the phasing out of all US troops in Japan 6

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [2/10] 7

Advantage One – US-Japan Relations 7

Furthermore, the current Cold War model of the Japan-US alliance is outdated and troop presence is uniquely contentious 7

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [3/10] 8

Strong US-Japan alliance is key to solving Chinese invasion of Taiwan through economic interdependence 8

Nye, 2008 [Joseph Nye, 5-12, Korea Times, “Future of US-Japanese Alliance,” Lexis] 8

And, war over Taiwan causes extinction 8

Strait Times, 2000 [“Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Jun 25, LN] 8

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [4/10] 9

Plan solves – Withdrawal of troops from Japan allows a refashioning of the US-Japan alliance where both sides are equal 9

Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Japan Can Defend Itself,” May 12, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804. Article also appeared on The National Interest Online] 9

Phased withdrawal of US forces from Japan uniquely results in improved relations with Japan 9

Simpson, 2010 [Dan, a former U.S. ambassador, is a Post-Gazette associate editor; “Let’s Draw Down Our Forces in Japan; As a matter of fact, we have way too many troops in way too many places,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, March 17; Accessed online at LN] 9

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [5/10] 10

Advantage Two – Japanese Politics 10

Hatoyama’s resignation over the botched handling of the US bases in Japan negatively affects the popularity of the Democratic Party of Japan as Kan takes over 10

Additionally, popularity is necessary for the DPJ to win the majority in the Upper House and winning the majority allows Kan to pass legislation through both chambers 10

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [6/10] 11

And DPJ majority in the Upper House is key for passage of a non-watered down version of climate legislation to solve warming 11

Maeda and Fujioka, 6/15 [Risa and Chisa, 2010, “UPDATE 2-Japan aims to pass climate bill by yr-end UN talks,”http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE65E05N20100615?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true] 11

And unchecked warming leads to extinction 11

Tickell, 8-11-2008 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange) 11

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [7/10] 12

Opposition to US presence will not die down; withdrawal is necessary to please the masses 12

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [8/10] 13

Advantage Three – Japanese Rearm 13

Despite the ending of World War II and the Cold War, the US has failed to adjust its military deployments around the world and this is especially true in relation to Japan 13

Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Japan Can Defend Itself,” May 12, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804. Article also appeared on The National Interest Online] 13

Despite dependence on the US military, Japan has begun revisiting its security stance in the region to a more outward focus which is necessary for defense independence 13

Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Japan Can Defend Itself,” May 12, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804. Article also appeared on The National Interest Online] 13

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [9/10] 14

US withdrawal from Japan results in Japan rearmament 14

And, Japan rearm is key to solve North Korea 14

Krauthammer, 2009 [Charles, Columnist; “Fox News All-Stars,” Fox News Network, May 26; Accessed online at LN] 14

Failure to address North Korea sparks adventurism and nuclear war 14

Dibb, 2006 [Paul, IR Professor at Australia National University; “As one nuclear flashpoint reaches a lull, another simmers away,” Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), August 15; Accessed online at LN] 14

Japan Withdrawal – 1AC [10/10] 15

The plan is uniquely key to Japan gaining defense independence 15

Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Japan Can Defend Itself,” May 12, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11804. Article also appeared on The National Interest Online] 15

Exts: US-Japan Relations [1/5] 16

US-JAPAN RELATIONS STRAINED NOW BECAUSE OF US TROOP PRESENCE 16

Simpson, 2010 [Dan, a former U.S. ambassador, is a Post-Gazette associate editor; “Let’s Draw Down Our Forces in Japan; As a matter of fact, we have way too many troops in way too many places,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, March 17; Accessed online at LN] 16

America's relations with Japan are in a jumble on a number of fronts. The real problem, which nobody wants to address openly, is that 65 years after the end of World War II the United States still has some 50,000 troops in Japan. America is not very good at ending wars, particularly, it seems, those that it wins. In addition to the troops in Japan, there are 56,000 remaining in Germany, long after the end of World War II in Europe and two decades after the end of the Cold War. The United States maintains 28,000 troops in South Korea, 57 years after the end of the Korean War. The United States even continues to maintain a thousand troops in Cuba, which have been there since the 1898 Spanish-American War. (Residual troops will be a question worth watching in the wake of the Iraq war.) These various troop presences are usually justified in the name of grand strategy, although the argumentation becomes tortured. There is no argument for stationing troops in Cuba. Germany, Japan and South Korea are strong, wealthy, democratic states. Japan remains the world's second largest economy. Germany is the fourth, and firmly ensconced in NATO in terms of its defense. 16

US-JAPAN RELATIONS STRAINED - US TROOP PRESENCE KEY 16

Simpson, 2010 [Dan, a former U.S. ambassador, is a Post-Gazette associate editor; “Let’s Draw Down Our Forces in Japan; As a matter of fact, we have way too many troops in way too many places,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, March 17; Accessed online at LN] 16

Exts: US-Japan Relations [2/5] 17

American stubbornness on Okinawa issue is destroying relations 17

Exts: US-Japan Relations [3/5] 18

Troop withdrawal key to US-Japan relations – Asian balance of power 18

Troops are unpopular in Japan – citizen protest prove 18

Exts: US-Japan Relations [4/5] 19

Exts: US-Japan Relations [5/5] 20

US-Japan Relations Good – Terrorism/Prolif [1/1] 21

US-Japan Relations Good – Global Security/Stability [1/1] 22

Exts: Japan Politics – Uniqueness 23

The coming months are critical in determining the future of Kan and the DPJ 23

Exts: Japan Politics – Troop Withdrawal Key 24

Exts: Japan Politics – Bases Key 25

Removal of Bases key to DPJ popularity 25

DPJ popularity tied to base relocation 25

Exts: Japan Politics – US Refusal on Troops Key 26

US refusal to bargain with troop deployment leads to DPJ unpopularity 26

Exts: Japan Politics – US Troop Stance 27

Exts: Japan Politics – 2AC Economy Add-on [1/2] 28

DPJ needs upper house vote for sales tax hike which is key to sustaining the Japanese economy 28

Exts: Japan Politics – 2AC Economy Add-on [2/2] 29

Economic decline results in nuke war 29

Exts: Japan Politics – Economy 30

Hatoyama’s resignation has hurt the popularity of the DPJ. This popularity is needed for fiscal reform 30

Exts: Japan Politics – Economy 31

Exts: Japan Politics – Economy 32

DPJ needs popularity for sales tax hike 32

Exts: Japan Politics – Economy 33

Japan economy key to global economy 33

Reuters 08 – [9/3/08, Saft, James, columnist, “ Japan is all too coupled with global economy”, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL149673720080903] 33

Exts: Japan Politics – Climate 34

2AC Add-on: US Economy [1/2] 35

US can’t afford its global military commitments now – debt is increasing 35

Bandow, 2010 [Doug, Senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan; “Get Out of Japan,” June 18, Accessed online at http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11928, Article also appeared on The National Interest Online] 35

The withdrawal of troops from Japan saves the US billions 35

Cogan, 2010 [Doloris, writer/editor of the Guam Echo, sent by the Institute of Ethnic Affairs in Washington, D.C., to Guam from 1947 to 1950. She worked as Pacific Area assistant in the Department of the Interior from 1951 to 1955; “Move Okinawa Marines to the US,” June 25; Accessed online: http://www.guampdn.com/article/20100625/OPINION02/6250316] 35

And, that’s key to preventing stagflation – specifically, China will dump the dollar which tanks our economy 35

2AC Add-on: US Economy [2/2] 36

Econ collapse leads to war, terrorism, disease 36

Exts: US Economy Add-on 37

CHINA ON THE BRINK OF WITHDRAWING SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS IN THE DOLLAR, STRICT FISCAL DISCIPLINE ONLY WAY TO HOLD IT OFF 37

Murdock 2009 37

Exts: US Economy Add-on 38

China is the largest US debt holder and are concerned about reckless spending 38

Landler 10 38

China is willing to dump dollar 38

Wall Street Journal February 5 th 2010 38

Exts: Japan Rearm – Inevitable 39

Japan rearm inevitable and key to security 39

Hemm, 08- Yale Alumnus 08, Corporate Associate Covington & Burling LLP Law firm (2/6/2008, Robert M, “Recent Developments,” http://www.yale.edu/yjil/PDFs/vol_33/Recent_Developments_v33_1.pdf, CJC) 39

Exts: Japan Rearm – Fast 40

Exts: Japan Rearm Good - China 41

Japanese rearm curbs Chinese hegemony in Asia 41

Carpenter, 10- vice president for defense and foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute ( 4/7/2010, Ted Galen, “Tokyo Rising,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11665, CJC) 41

Exts: Japan Rearm Good – Asian Stability 42

Japanese prolif is key to Asian stability 42

White, 2008 [Hugh, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University; “Why Japan might have to go nuclear,” July 16, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2008/07/16/Why-Japan-might-have-to-go-nuclear.aspx] 42

Exts: Japan Rearm Good – Checks Nuke Escalation 43

Even if it doesn’t prevent conflict, Japanese prolif prevents nuclear escalation 43

Schoff, 2009 [James L., Associate Director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis Asia-Pacific and specialist in East Asian Security and non-proliferation issues; “Realigning Priorities: The U.S.-Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,” Accessed online: http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf] 43

JAPAN KEY U.S. ECONOMY 44

JAPAN’S BOND HOLDINGS MAKE IT A CORNERSTONE OF THE US ECONOMY 44

JAPANESE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE WILL DRAG THE U.S. ECONOMY WITH IT. 44

japan economy key world economy 45

JAPAN’S ECONOMY KEY TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH 45

General Prolif Good 46

Proliferation solves large scale Asia war 46

Layne, 96- fellow of the Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government (Spring 1996, Christopher, “Less is more - realistic foreign policies for East Asia,” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_n43/ai_18298481/pg_9/?tag=content;col1, CJC) 46

Proliferation will expand the deterrence bubble, leading to peace 46

Lemencier, 3- Director, Laboratoire d’Economie Publique( 2003, Bertrand, “Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: A Blessing or a Curse?,” http://lemennicier.bwm-mediasoft.com/cv.php , CJC) 46

Prolif increases international stability 46

Waltz, 3- Adjunct professor, Columbia University (2003, Kenneth N, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, With Scott D. Sagan,” p. 43-45, CJC) 46

General Prolif Good 47

Exts: Total Withdrawal Solves 48

Total withdrawal of troops solves US-Japan relations and any chance for entanglements 48

Miyasato, 2009 [Seigen, Chairman of the Study Group of Okinawa External Affairs; “Letter to the Preseident: A Letter to President Obama from Okinawans,” November 9; Accessed online: 48

Exts: Withdrawal Solves 49

US presence is not essential in Okinawa. Plan is key to beginning the necessary drawdown 49

Buchanan, 2010 [Patrick J., Former Senior Adviser to Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Reagan; “Bring Our Marines Home,” February 2, Accessed online: http://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2010/02/01/bring-our-marines-home/] 49

A2: Topicality – Military Presence Not Troops 50

A2: Deterrence (Nuclear Umbrella) 51

Nuclear Umbrella provides sufficient deterrence for Japan 51

Nuclear Umbrella via the US Is key to deterrence in Japan 51

A2: Deterrence 52

Nuclear Umbrella key to non proliferation 52

Relocation of troops won’t lead to a decrease of deterrence 52

A2: Deterrence 53

T: Presence 54

***Neg 54

***Neg 54

Relocation CP 1NC (1/3) 55

Relocation CP 1NC (2/3) 56

Relocation CP 1NC (3/3) 57

Presence Key (1/5) 58

Presence Key (2/5) 59

Presence Key (3/5) 60

Presence Key (4/5) 61

Presence Key (5/5) 62

Withdrawal bad 63

Military in Japan does not affect alliance (1/5) 64

Military in Japan does not affect alliance (2/5) 65

Military in Japan does not affect alliance (3/5) 66

Military in Japan does not affect alliance (4/5) 67

Military in Japan does not affect alliance (5/5) 68

Military presence k2 alliance (1/7) 69

Military presence k2 alliance (2/7) 70

Military presence k2 alliance (3/7) 71

Military presence k2 alliance (4/7) 72

Military presence key to alliance (5/7) 73

Military presence key to alliance (6/7) 74

Military presence key to alliance (7/7) 75

U.S. Jap relations good 76

Status quo solves relations (1/2) 77

Status quo solves relations (2/2) 78

Troops k2 deterrence (1/3) 79

Troops k2 deterrence (2/3) 80

Troops k2 deterrence (3/3) 81

Japan rearm bad (1/2) 82

Japan rearm bad (2/2) 83

rearm  war 84

REARM BAD: SOUTH KOREA 85

JAPANESE REARM KILLS JAPAN-ROK ALLIANCE 85

REARM BAD: INDIA/PAKISTAN 86

JAPANESE REARM WOULD BE RAPID AND CAUSE INDIA/PAKISTAN ARMS RACES 86

NOW IS KEY – ARMS RACING WILL RUIN INDIAN DÉTENTE AND CAUSE NUCLEAR WAR 86

THIS CAUSES EXTINCTION 86

XT: EXTINCTION IMPACT 87

INDIA/PAKISTAN WAR CAUSES EXTINCTION 87

rearm kills japan economy 88

JAPAN REARM WOULD STRAIN THEIR ECONOMY 88

JAPAN KEY U.S. ECONOMY 89

JAPAN’S BOND HOLDINGS MAKE IT A CORNERSTONE OF THE US ECONOMY 89

JAPANESE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE WILL DRAG THE U.S. ECONOMY WITH IT. 89

japan economy key world economy 90

JAPAN’S ECONOMY KEY TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH 90

A2: Japan Econ Add-On (1/2) 91

A2: Japan Econ Add-On (2/2) 92

Consult Japan 93

Troops withdrawal inevitable 94

Troop withdrawal not inevitable 95

DPJ unpopular (1/2) 96

DPJ unpopular (2/2) 97

DPJ Popular 98

Plan unpopular 99





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