Met 614 Tropical Cyclones Spring 2013



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MET 614 - Tropical Cyclones Spring 2013
meeting time: Tuesday and Thursday 9:00 to 10:15

place: HIG 309 and sometimes 310 to access the internet

Profs.: Gary M. Barnes HIG 335, 956-2565, gbarnes@hawaii.edu

Yuqing Wang, POST 409G, 956-5609, yuqing@hawaii.edu


Overview: Tropical cyclones (TCs) have the dubious distinction of being one of the more dangerous and destructive natural phenomena in the world (Southern 1979). Today, the United States dedicates considerable resources to the monitoring, prediction, and research of these intense, long-lived vortices. This course will look at the meteorological, climatological, and a few societal aspects of TCs.
We will be reading a great deal of papers from the refereed journals. These can be obtained via the web for the most part. Figures that I discuss in class will be handed out or made available electronically. I realize that the reading list is daunting – we’ll probably modify (read shorten) the list as we proceed. Gary’s choices are based on their long term standing in the community, or they are digestible without an inordinate amount of background. Yes, there are more recent papers, but our goal is to work on the foundation material first. Yuqing has identified his list of papers, and it is likely that the list will be reduced due to time constraints.

Gary will set the stage describing TC basics including the synoptic, mesoscale and convective scale phenomena, fundamental processes and some basics about genesis. Yuqing will focus on dynamics including intensity change, maximum potential intensity, and the role of vortex Rossby waves and eddies in TC evolution and intensity.


Requirements: Open to undergraduate and graduate students. Undergraduates must have completed MET302, MET303, MET402 and MET406. Graduate students should have completed MET610 or gain permission of the instructor.
Class responsibilities: There will be a 15- 20 minute class presentation (25% grade) in the style of an AMS Conference presentation and 2 quizzes, each worth 25%. Class participation (25%) is de rigueur, so if you want to sit quietly then don’t take the course. We want to hear your ideas. The presentation will essentially be a discussion of a topic of the student’s choice, but it must present both the pros and cons of a particular argument. Examples are: SST does or does not control TC intensity, the eyewall and eye do or do not mix, rainbands are or are not factors in TC intensity, easterly waves are or are not important in TC genesis in the East Pacific.

We do not want you to simply review a single paper; rather we want you to dig into a particular idea of your choosing.





Approximate topics and order – Gary’s portion
L1: importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind, Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, the 1938 Hurricane.

Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631.


L2, 3: synoptic scale structure of a TC, vortex scale features

William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135.


L4, 5: angular momentum budget

William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II. Dynamics and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150.


L6, 7: mesoscale structure - the eyewall

David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311.


L8, 9: mesoscale structure - rainbands

G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 2125–2137.


L10: vortex scale structure, wind profiles, approximations to the flow, size and strength, heat and momentum sources. Willoughby, 1995, CH2 in Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, ed. By R. Elsberry. (avail. from gary)
L11: precipitation field in a TC

Frank Marks, 1985: Evolution of the structure of precipitation in Hurricane Allen (1980) Monthly Weather Review, 113, 909-930.

Manuel Lonfat, Frank Marks, and Shuyi Chen, 2004: Precipitation distribution in TCs using the TRMM microwave imager: A global perspective. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1645-1660.
L12, 13: heat and momentum sources, diabatic heating, formation of the warm core

Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561.




L14: Genesis –necessary but not sufficient ingredients

developing versus non-developing systems – (Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152)

John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151.
L15: TC motion – climatology, recurvature, environmental steering by levels or layers, introduction to Beta effect. Elsberry, R. L., chapter 4, Tropical Cyclone Motion, in the WMO Technical document, Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, pages 106 -140.

Other possible topics are, and may be substituted if interest demands:



L: inflow boundary layer, isothermal expansion, energy budgets, role of spray

bulk aerodynamic equations, Bonnie and Gilbert inflow studies

Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry (1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028.
L: convective scale structure

Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari et al (1999, MWR, 520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947)



E. W. McCaul Jr. 1991: Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado Environments. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 8, pp. 1954–1978.
L: Annual variability forecasting and the bumper crop in 1995 in the Atlantic. William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993: Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 73–86. Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley B. Goldenberg. 1998: The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193.

Overview: In this second half of 614, I will focus on some basic dynamics of tropical cyclones and use them to explain both structure and intensity and their changes. Since there is no suitable textbook for the course, I will use some journal papers that are fundamental and updated to the topics we will discuss. I will also briefly discuss modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones with advanced numerical models. The reference papers listed below are tentative.


  1. Basic equations for understanding tropical cyclone dynamics

Governing equations in cylindrical coordinates; axisymmteric balanced model (Eliassen balanced model), asymmetric balanced (AB) model.

Shapiro, LJ, and HE Willoughby, 1982: The response of balanced hurricanes to local sources of heat and momentum. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 378-394.

Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697.

Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573.

Shapiro LJ, and MT Montgomery, 1993: Three-dimensional balance theory for rapidly rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322-3355.


  1. Potential vorticity (PV) dynamics and PV mixing

PV concept, eddy processes, and PV mixing in tropical cyclone inner-core region.

Schubert WH, et al. 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209.


  1. Dynamics of tropical cyclone motion

Rossby-wave energy dispersion, beta-induced asymmetries, and beta drift of tropical cyclones.

Chan, JCL, and RT Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1257-1265.

Fiorino, M., and RL Elsberry, 1989: Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 975-990.

Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortice. Part I: Adiabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 411-427.

Wang Y., and G.J. Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part II: Diabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3737-3756.


  1. Waves in tropical cyclones

Gravity, and inertia-gravity waves, and vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones.

Willoughby HE, 1977: Inertia-buoyancy waves in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1028-1039.

Montgomery MT, and RJ Kallenbach, 1997: A theory for vortex Rossby-waves and its application to spiral bands and intensity changes in hurricanes. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 435-465.

Wang, Y., 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part I: Overall structure, potential vorticity and kinetic energy budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1213-1238.


  1. Maximum potential intensity

Concepts of maximum potential intensity, two MPI theories and applications.

Emanuel KA, 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604.

Emanuel, KA, 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401, 665-669.

Holland GJ, 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541.

Persing J., and MT Montgomery, 2003: Hurricane superintensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2349-2371.


  1. Structure and intensity changes (1) Internal dynamics

Eyewall cycle, interaction between eyewall and rainbands, PV mixing

Wang, Y., 2002: 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part II: The role in tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1239-1262.

Willoughby HE, JA Clos, and MG Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eyewalls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395-411.


  1. Structure and Intensity changes (2) External forcing

Vertical shear effect, SST, translation, etc.

Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: Tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3313-3332.

Frank WM, and EA Ritchie, 1999: Effects of environmental flow upon tropical cyclone structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2044-2061.

Jones SC., 1995: The evolution of vortices in vertical shear. Part I: Initially barotropic vortices. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 821-851.

Reasor PD, MT Montgomery, and LD Grasso, 2004: A new look at the problem of tropical cyclones in vertical shear: Vortex resiliency. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 3-22.


  1. Finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis

Cooperative growing of cumulus convection and synoptic scale vortices, linear and nonlinear CISK, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE)

Emanuel, KA, 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3431-3456.

Ooyama, V., 1982: Conceptual evolution of the theory and modeling of the tropical cyclones. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 369-380.


  1. Rapid intensification

Highlight the nonlinear behavior of balanced vortices to diabatic heating and the inertial stability of the vortex core.

Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573.

Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697.


  1. Modeling of tropical cyclones

Review the history of numerical modeling of tropical cyclones, and the current progress in using advanced models.

Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life-cycle of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 3-40.

Liu YB, DL Zhang, and MK Yau, 1997: A multiscale numerical study of hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3073-3093.



Wang, Y., 2001: An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable mesh primitive equations model–TCM3. Part I: Model description and control experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 1370-1394.

Order of topics {approximate # of classes for the topic}

*Caution papers subject to change, key papers denoted with a *.
course goals, syllabus, expectations and grading {.5}
I. Importance of TC - CH1, G.R. Foley {~1}

importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind, Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, readings about the 1938 Hurricane.


* Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631.
II. Structure of a mature TC - CH2, H. E. Willoughby {10}

equation of motion, divergence and vorticity, swirling wind, wind profiles, concentric rings, approximations to the wind, intensity, strength, and size, D-value, modified Rankine vortex, warm core, eyewalls and rainbands, reflectivity structure, equivalent potential temperature, energy fluxes.


synoptic scale structure of a TC and angular momentum budget

* William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135.

*William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II. Dynamics and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150.
vortex scale, wind profiles in the inner core Willoughby (1990,a,b, JAS, 242, 265)

*Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert A. Houze Jr. and John F. Gamache. 1992: Dual-Aircraft Investigation of the Inner Core of Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic Structure. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 49, No. 11, pp. 919–942.


eyewalls - Jorgensen (1984a, JAS, 1268)

* David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311.


rainbands - Powell (1990a, MWR, 891)

* G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr.. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 2125–2137.

convective cells – Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari et al (1999, MWR,520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947)
structure beyond the eyewall, size and strength – Weatherford and Gray (1988a,b MWR, 1032, 1044), Croxford and Barnes (2001, MWR, 127)
landfall issues - Bosart and Dean (1991, W&F, 515), Powell and Houston (1996, W&F, 329) *Eugene W. McCaul Jr.. 1991: Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado Environments. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 8, pp. 1954–1978.
numerical simulations of the TC - Yamasaki (1983, MG, 221), Rosenthal (1978, JAS, 258), Wang et al. (2000) {may have Yuqing guest lecture….}

*Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561.

* William M. Frank and Elizabeth A. Ritchie. 2001: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 129, No. 9, pp. 2249–2269.
inflow boundary layer, bulk aerodynamic eqns., TC Kerry - Barnes and Powell (1995, MWR, 2348), Wroe and Barnes (2003, MWR, 1600)

*Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry (1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028.


potential vorticity and hurricanes - Molinari et al. (1995, JAS, 3593) and (1997, MWR, 2699) Hanley et al. (2001, MWR, 2570)

*Lloyd J. Shapiro and James L. Franklin. 1999: Potential Vorticity Asymmetries and Tropical Cyclone Motion. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 127, No. 1, pp. 124–131. Hanley


TC rainfall, an overview of the problem, shear and rain patterns – Rodgers et al. (2003, MWR, 1577)

*Eyad H. Atallah and Lance F. Bosart. 2003: The Extratropical Transition and Precipitation Distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 131, No. 6, pp. 1063–1081.


III. TC formation - CH3, McBride {~5}

genesis - necessary but not sufficient ingredients, vorticity spin up demands, climatologies in the various basins, mean conditions for various basins (Sadler atlas), genesis parameter, SOI and genesis, upper level interactions, role of shear, CISK, WISHE - Smith (1997, QJRMS, 407)
developing versus non-developing systems – ( Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152)

*John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151.


Carnot heat engine and maximum potential intensity Emanuel (1995, JAS, 3969;1997, JAS 1014) Holland (1997, JAS, 2519)

*Kerry A. Emanuel. 1986: An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 585–605.


rapid intensification - Bosart et al. (2000, MWR, 322), Shay et al. (2000)

* Lance F. Bosart, Christopher S. Velden, W. Edward Bracken, John Molinari and Peter G. Black. 2000: Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 2, pp. 322–352.


maximum intensity and SST - DeMaria and Kaplan (1994, JCli,1324), Evans (1993, JCli, 1133)
IV. Climatic variability {~3}
ENSO and genesis - brief review and patterns
Gray’s attempts at predicting the Atlantic Basin season

climatic variability of hurricanes - Shapiro (1982a,b, MWR, 1007, 1014)

*William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993: Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 73–86.
the 95 bumper crop season in the Atlantic

*Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley B. Goldenberg. 1998: The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193.


V. TC motion - CH4, Elsberry {4}
tracks based on climatologies, seasonal variations, steering, Beta effect, baroclinic effects, diabatic influences, TC prediction, statistical and dynamical models, forecast errors

Harr and Elsberry (1991, MWR, 1448), Beta effect (Wang (1998)

*Greg J. Holland. 1984: Tropical Cyclone Motion. A Comparison of Theory and Observation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 68–75.
VI. Ocean Response to TC - CH5, Ginis {~2}
storm surge, SST cooling in wake, alteration of surface fluxes

Felix over the Bermuda mooring - Dickey et al. (1998, MWR, 1195), Price (1981, JPO, 153)

SLOSH

*Lynn K. Shay, Gustavo J. Goni and Peter G. Black. 2000: Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 5, pp. 1366–1383.



*S. Daniel Jacob, Lynn K. Shay, Arthur J. Mariano and Peter G. Black. 2000: The 3D Oceanic Mixed Layer Response to Hurricane Gilbert. Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 1407–1429.
VII. Class presentations {~2}
VIII. quizzes {~2}




A. structure

1. basic elements: eye, eyewall, moat, rainbands

2. intensity, strength (inner and outer), size

3. asymmetrical and concentric storms

4. horizontal wind - Atlantic and Pacific approximations, modified Rankine Vortex,

5. vertical wind

6. angular momentum - not conserved

7. temperature - anomalies and their interpretation

8. moisture content - specific humidity, dew point depression

9. energy content of the air

a. dry and moist static energy

b. equivalent potential temperature

c. enthalpy

10. reflectivity - horizontal and vertical, rain rates, rain amounts

11. eyewall and rainband specifics - convective and stratiform

12. immature systems - asymmetry and apparent development, wind profiles

13. landfall wind fields - shear, gust factors

14. tornadogenesis, supercells in the cyclone environment

15. potential vorticity - interaction with troughs

16. rates of intensification and decay

17. electrification - outer band maximum

18. diurnal variation - upper level destabilization or deep convective response

19. ocean response -SST cooling, waves, evidence of frictional loss

20. MJO and patterns in the northeast Pacific

21. Interaction with synoptic scale features - Rossby waves and TUTTs

22. triggering mechanisms - easterly waves, monsoon trough, MCS vortices


B. fundamental physics

1. latent heat release - heating versus warming

2. net warming - a balance of latent heating and adiabatic cooling

3. energy fluxes at the sea surface

a. bulk aerodynamic equations

b. transfer coefficients

c. role of sea spray

4. isothermal expansion



5. the hurricane as an air-sea instability

6. conservation of angular momentum

8. minimum surface pressure and equivalent potential temperature

9. ventilation of exhaust products

10. radiation budget - Gray’s arguments

11. eyewall replacement

12. CISK and WISHE

13. Carnot heat engine approach



C. track

1. typical tracks in each basin

2. seasonal behavior patterns

3. Beta effect - Bin Wang guest lectures

4. synoptic scale forcing - Elsberry’s recent results

5. models used for guidance - CLIPER, SANDBAR, VICBAR, NOGAPS, GFDL, BAMS

6. well-behaved vs. erratic tracks

7. satellites - Dvorak method


D. social, economic issues

1. wind, rain, storm surge

2. examples - Camille, Frederic, Andrew, Iniki, Tracy

3. 1900 Galveston , 1984 Alicia

4. recent examples - Iniki, Hugo, Andrew

5. Halsey’s typhoon

6. costs of storms

7. watches and warnings - cost per mile of coast

8. building issues

9. barrier islands

10.evacuation times

11. attempts to modify - Stormfury, flux interference


E. instrumentation used to sample TC

1. Surface observations

2. radar

a. reflectivity

b. Doppler

3. Aircraft sensors - in-situ and remote

4. GPS sonde

5. Satellite

a. infrared

b. visible

c. quickscat


texts and papers
Elsberry ed.: Tropical Cyclones

Riehl and Malkus

Hawkins - Inez

Jorgensen Allen and other ew

Barnes et al. - rainbands

Powell -rainbands

Norbert eyewall studies

Jorgensen, LeMone, Zipser - w in the cyclone

Emanuel

Rotunno and Emanuel

Yanai - development of a disturbance

Barnes and Powell - energy fluxes into the inflow

McCaul - tornadoes, Bogner and Barnes

Willoughby -SBC

Bosart - rains at landfall

Frank - synoptic env, budgets

McBride and Zehr - dev and non-dev.

Large and Pond

Betts and Simpson

Wu - spray

Pielke Jr. - public issues

Shay - SST

Marks - radar structure

Franklin - tracks and ODWs

Shapiro - waves, PV, QBO

Ooyama -69

Charney
Special Topics Class - 752 - Tropical Cyclones
L1: syllabus presentation
L2: definition of a TC, typhoon vs hurricane, and importance of TC to civilization and the environment
L3: climatology: basins, seasons
L4: climatology: tracks, speeds, large scale tropical features
L5: subsynoptic scale structure, cylindrical coordinate system, divergence, inflow and outflow, momentum fields
L6: continued view of TC from the radiosonde composite method, energy balance
L7: inner core structure, Hurricanes Allen, Inez, Floyd


L8: convective scale motions: hot tower, moist static energy and thetae profiles Simpson
L9: convective scale observations: Raymond, Norbert and Daisy, statistics from Jorgensen, Willis, Burpee
L10: genesis - necessary but not sufficient conditions, McBride findings
L11: genesis - Yanai's case study, Isabel
L12: physical processes in TC: basic equations and diabatic heating, heating vs warming
L13: boundary layer stoking up, heat and moisture flux, angular mometum budget
L14: wind structure in the PBL, estimating surface damage
L15: warm core creation, P - thetae relationship
L16: intensity and SST
L17: simulation of a TC: Yamasaki and Rosenthal
L18: more simulations: Anthes, Kurihara and Tuleya, Krishnamurti
L19: TC forecasting: track, beta effect, deep layer mean, interaction with a trough
L20: models to forecast track: VICBAR, SANBAR
L21: theories of hurricane development: CISK, air sea interaction
L22: oceanic response to TC: surge, upwelling and downwelling
L23-26: presentations by class, 30-45 min in length
sources

1- texts: Elsberry 1 and 2, Anthes, Riehl 1 and 2


2- refereed papers

Yamasaki


Anthes

Emanuel


Charney and Eliassen

Emanuel and Rotunno

Ooyama

Willoughby



Shapiro

Jorgensen

Barnes


Marks

Yanai


Holland

Frank


McBride

Fiorino


Riehl and Malkus

Molinari








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