Monitor guidance east asia

Politics in the Philippines is often characterized by Cronyism and Corruption. There is a long-running attempt at Constitutional reform (Charter Change or Cha-Cha) to move away from the current presidential system to a Parliamentary system. Resistance to this centers on the idea that current president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (who came to power after the ouster of former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada) will try to use the new system to become Prime Minister, and thus stay in power even longer. Keep an eye on the Cha-Cha debate; it seems to never die.

The Philippines has a history of “people power” movements to overthrow governments. These are also sometimes referred to as EDSA movements, after the Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA), the major road in Manila. While there are numerous attempts to oust the governments, in general a successful People Power movement must have the Church and the Urban Poor, and buy-in from the Business community and the military. 

Coup plots, coup warnings and coup crackdowns are always circulating, and sometimes may even involve a few military folks. But more frequently are political PR tools.

The Philippine basically never recovered from the Asian Economic Crisis, and few would lump Manila in with any list of resurging Asian Tigers. 

A significant portion of the Philippine economy is remittances from overseas workers. Watch for changes in the pattern amid the economic problems as well as new arrangements to send more Filipino workers abroad (like nurses to Japan).
Security:

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) faces numerous insurgencies and militant groups domestically. The largest active insurgencies are the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which operate primarily in Mindanao, and the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines, which operates throughout the archipelago, but more heavily along the western edge. The MILF is a split-off from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which has been in a peace accord with the government since the late 1990s, and holds nominal control over the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). The Abu Sayyaf, originally founded as an Islamist insurgency, has devolved into largely a militant kidnap-for-ransom and extortion gang, and operates primarily in the Sulu archipelago (including Basilan and Jolo) and around Zamboanga City on Mindanao. 

The United States has a series of military training and exercises with the AFP (including the annual Balikatan) that sometimes draw domestic opposition. The US bases were kicked out of the Philippines several years ago, but the near constant presence via training ops restarted after Sept. 11, 2001. 

The philippines has a running dispute with China over control of parts of the Spratly islands. 

Issues with China, and the relationship with the United States remain significant. 

Problems often arise with the treatment of overseas workers. 

AUSTRALIA
Australia is an island continent unto itself between the Indian Ocean and southern Pacific, the sixth largest country in the world by landmass with a population of merely 20 million. It is a member of the British Commonwealth, an American and NATO ally. 80 percent of the population is concentrated within 6o miles of the coast, mainly in three east-coast cities – Sidney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The rest of the vast continent is mostly desert, and the costs of developing infrastructure on such a landmass are forbidding, though it has been necessary to gain access to far-flung patches of resource deposits and arable land.
POLITICS

The country is currently led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party, which defeated PM John Howard’s Liberal-National Party in elections in 2007. Rudd is seen as a leader that attempts to lead Australia in a more internationally focused way that does not depend on following the United States’ lead on every issue. He has also cultivated stronger ties with China, an important developing relationship. Australian domestic politics are often insular, but currently evolving policies on free trade (including FTAs), foreign direct investment and defense and security are important to watch.

Australia is a resource rich liberal economy – exports amount to roughly $200 billion per year, about 20 percent of GDP, and Australia is broadly open to foreign investment (and is an active investor in foreign countries as well). Australia has therefore experienced ups and downs following fluctuations in global commodity prices and capital flows in 2007-9, but it is relatively self-sufficient and not in the same financial troubles as other developed nations. Australia produces mineral and agricultural commodities, the most notable of which are coal, uranium, iron ore, zinc, tin, beef, wheat, sugar and wool, though there are many others, including petroleum and natural gas (which Australia exports as LNG). The goings on in Australia’s resource production and export sectors are important to watch. Top trading partners are China, Japan, the US, Britain and Singapore, all key relationships to monitor.

Australia is firmly part of the US alliance system in East Asia and the Pacific, along with its neighbor New Zealand. The US alliance will always be primary in a geopolitical sense, but in a regional sense the United States has gradually handed more responsibility over to its allies since the Cold War ended, expecting them to manage situations that the US would prefer to avoid. The relative retreat of the US has been an important factor in Australia’s developing security goals, which range from counterterrorism to international peacekeeping, as well as fighting international crime like smuggling. Australia’s developing security policies and defense strategies are important to watch. Australia has deployed forces in Afghanistan and East Timor, and its international deployments should be monitored.

Australia is a member of the British Commonwealth, an ally of the United States and NATO, and a member of the WTO and numerous Asia-Pacific regional groupings, including APEC, the East Asia Summit, the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum, and the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Canberra is attempting to prove its international credentials to gain a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council in 2013. In addition to Australia’s generally supportive role in going along with US-led international initiatives, PM Kevin Rudd is an outspoken supporter of China and has sought to maintain good relations with Beijing. This is a result of the developing geopolitical dynamic in which China’s growth is increasingly beneficial to Australia’s economy, but must be balanced along with Australia’s position in the US economic, political and security sphere (including Australia’s substantial partnerships with Japan and South Korea).

The People’s Action Party (PAP), the party that won Singapore independence from Malaysia in 1965, successfully squelches potential opposition – the political consolidation is evident in that the first Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew, now advises his son, Lee Hsien Loong, who is the current prime minister. Any signs of a rising opposition, of increased factionalization within the PAP, is important to watch, in case it could affect policies that would touch on Singapore’s trade or foreign relations.

Economics and trade are the primary reason to pay attention to Singapore. Singapore’s geographic location makes it well positioned to benefit enormously from shipping and transportation industries and finance – meanwhile its own manufacturing industries are globally competitive. Singapore is an export hub, with domestic-made exports roughly equal to its GDP, but it is also a transshipment hub, with re-exports also equaling GDP (making its total export dependency close to twice the size of its GDP). Singapore has benefited commercially from centuries of Chinese business and from British colonial presence, but it has largely come into its own as an independent country.

Singapore secures its national interests by using its geography and trade know-how to make itself indispensable to the interests of various world powers. Singapore has strong relations with the US, for which it serves as a port. It is also has its own powerful navy to secure its commercial interests, for instance by stomping out piracy in the straits that were once the most pirate-infested in the world. Singapore’s navy is worth watching as naval activity across the region picks up in coming years.

Singapore is an active member of ASEAN, APEC, the WTO, and has FTAs with more than a dozen countries and economic groupings, plus numerous other preferential trade agreements. Free trade is a priority, and trade barriers and financial regulations that could affect Singapore’s trade with neighbors or international players are important to monitor.

The country is split culturally and economically between the north and the south, a split that was intensified during the US Vietnam war and that is still evident today. The North is where political power is held in the capital Hanoi, but it is poorer, more insular, less developed due to its Communist history. The South, with its greatest city Ho Chi Minh, has more economic and commercial power and therefore seeks closer international ties and relations with Western nations.

Vietnam is a commodities exporter, the second biggest rice exporter in the world and one of East Asia’s few oil and natural gas exporters (with oil and gas fields off the southeastern coast). As with modern China, Vietnam’s communist leaders have partially reconciled themselves to the global economy, attempting to attract foreign corporations to invest heavily in manufacturing and resource production in Vietnam. Vietnam’s rapid growth, as a result of these open economic policies, has occurred despite rampant corruption and heavy-handed state presence that often appropriates private enterprise only to mismanage it. It is important to watch developments in economic policy, foreign direct investment, energy policy and any changes in direction towards or away from liberalization.

SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL

Vietnam has long had a rough relationship with its northern neighbor China, over sovereignty along their shared border in the north (they fought a war as recently as 1978-9, though the land border has largely been resolved, at least for the time being) and boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin and South China Sea. These bodies of water are vital to Vietnam’s interests because they form its eastern horizon (which Beijing and the rapidly evolving Chinese navy hope to exercise indisputable supremacy over). Vietnam dominates Laos and Cambodia politically and economically, but as Cambodia develops on its own (and as Thailand ramps up investments in along its border with Cambodia) there could be some tug-of-war, though it will mostly take place within Cambodia.

MYANMAR
Myanmar, formerly Burma (and still called so by some English-language media) is a large country comprising the westernmost edge of the Southeast Asian landmass, with Bangladesh and India to its west, China to its north, and Thailand and Laos to the east. It is ruled by a military government that oversees the chaotic mess of jungles and hills that shelter various ethnicities, tribes and rebel groups.

A military junta, the State Peace and Development Council, has ruled Myanmar since 1962. The junta's power was challenged by mass protests in 1988, which were suppressed, An outpouring of supporters for pro-Democracy opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, led to her arrest in 1989 and a victory for her party in elections in 1990, but the junta refused to recognize the results and has imprisoned Suu Kyi ever since. A new constitution was passed in May 2008 (after much devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis) by referendum. Opposition is systematically suppressed. The central government moved the capital from Rangoon (Yangon) in 2005 to Nyapyidaw, the official capital since 2006. New elections will be held in 2010, and the military is seeking to tighten its grip beforehand to ensure that the elections go as planned. The junta shows no sensitivity to internal or external calls for reform. However, its power is far from absolute: the combination of ceaseless insurgency by rebel groups and thriving black markets prevents the military leaders from maintaining full control, which in turn justifies their repeated attempts to clamp down on the country.

Myanmar does not have a normal functioning economy, but it is rich in natural resources, primarily oil and natural gas, rubber, timber and metals like tin. Energy is the biggest focus in the twenty-first century: China is conducting an all-out acquisitions campaign to make sure that Myanmar affords a constant supply, through infrastructure that the Chinese help build – very important to keep an eye on. Thailand is cooperating with Myanmar for natural gas reserves and hydroelectric power as well. Goods from China, India and Thailand dominate Myanmar’s thriving black markets.

Security

Myanmar has never been a stable state -- its territories are divided violently between military rule and long-running insurgencies. The military junta that took control in 1962 has waged numerous campaigns against minority rebel groups, most notably the Karen hill tribe, and has had trouble consolidating power. One third of the country is part of an ethnic minority, and the variety of ethnic groups has been a constant source of tensions and factionalism. Campaigns by the military to pacify the various rebel groups leads to skirmishes on most of Myanmar’s borders.

Internationally Myanmar is a member of ASEAN and has commercial ties with its neighbors, but it is overall a pariah state, with countless United Nations resolutions imposing economic sanctions. The regime survives attempts by foreign powers to punish it for not meeting international standards of governance. Refugees from Myanmar create problems for neighbors like Thailand and India. China continues to bolster the regime in order to meet its needs for natural resources and gain access to ports along Myanmar’s lengthy coastline. China is looking to expand naval operations and needs friendly ports. India is uneasy with increasing Chinese presence and influence in Myanmar. North Korea and Myanmar have a relationship which is not particularly important but obviously attracts attention because of their bad reputations. But China is essential.