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The Center's Predicted Path



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The Center's Predicted Path

When maps show the line stretching through the middle of the cone of uncertainty, that's the forecaster's predicted path for the center of the storm. The eye. The tropical storm and hurricane force winds, storm surge, heavy rains, and tornadoes can extend hundreds of miles away from the center of the storm. Just because the center of Hurricane Arthur last month missed Wilmington, North Carolina, it didn't save the city from getting a good wallop. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to graze the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico, the northeastern side of the island is still under a Tropical Storm Warning.



The winds around the center of a tropical storm or hurricane are usually most intense, but the cyclone's adverse effects can extend well beyond the center. Case in point: Hurricane Sandy.

Just before Sandy made landfall and completed its transition from a hurricane to an extratropical cyclone, its wind field was absolutely enormous. Even though the center made landfall in New Jersey, its tropical storm force winds extended from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Bangor, Maine, and its hurricane force winds stretched from Atlantic City, New Jersey down through Virginia.

Sandy is an extreme case, but it perfectly illustrates the fact that the center's path isn't always the entire story.

As we head into the peak of hurricane season this month and next, keep these points in mind when you watch The Weather Channel or see someone on social media post those hurricane forecast maps. Understanding these maps is the difference between staying informed and panicking (or, even worse, a false sense of security).

[Map of Hurricane Sandy by the NHC, all other graphics created by the auth

Q- How/when does a hurricane turn into a "extratropical cyclone"???



  1. To oversimplify it, when a tropical cyclone loses its characteristics and starts developing fronts, that's when it goes from tropical to extratropical. Most low pressure systems that affect the U.S. are extratropical cyclones — they have fronts and are driven by the jet stream rather than thunderstorms around their center.

Q I thought "cyclone" was the name for hurricanes in part of the southern hemisphere, what gives?

A. A cyclone is just a low pressure system. Around Australia, they call hurricanes "cyclones," but the word "cyclone" is the universal term for any type of low pressure system.




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