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- No Impact to Warming
- No impact to warming—you should assign zero risk .
Warming InevitableWarming inevitable- too late and china preventsMims ’12 (Christopher Mims, 3-26-2012, “Climate scientists: It’s basically too late to stop warming,” Grist, http://grist.org/list/climate-scientists-its-basically-too-late-to-stop-warming/ If you like cool weather and not having to club your neighbors as you battle for scarce resources, now’s the time to move to Canada, because the story of the 21st century is almost written, reports Reuters. Global warming is close to being irreversible, and in some cases that ship has already sailed. Scientists have been saying for a while that we have until between 2015 and 2020 to start radically reducing our carbon emissions, and what do you know: That deadline’s almost past! Crazy how these things sneak up on you while you’re squabbling about whether global warming is a religion. Also, our science got better in the meantime, so now we know that no matter what we do, we can say adios to the planet’s ice caps. For ice sheets — huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet — the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s. Here’s what happens next: Natural climate feedbacks will take over and, on top of our prodigious human-caused carbon emissions, send us over an irreversible tipping point. By 2100, the planet will be hotter than it’s been since the time of the dinosaurs, and everyone who lives in red states will pretty much get the apocalypse they’ve been hoping for. The subtropics will expand northward, the bottom half of the U.S. will turn into an inhospitable desert, and everyone who lives there will be drinking recycled pee and struggling to salvage something from an economy wrecked by the destruction of agriculture, industry, and electrical power production. Water shortages, rapidly rising seas, superstorms swamping hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure: It’s all a-coming, and anyone who is aware of the political realities knows that the odds are slim that our government will move in time to do anything to avert the biggest and most avoidable disaster short of all-out nuclear war. Even if our government did act, we can’t control the emissions of the developing world. China is now the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet and its inherently unstable autocratic political system demands growth at all costs. That means coal. No Impact to WarmingDoomsday warming predictions are false.Aikman, 11—Amos, the Australian Staff Reporter, “Climate forecasts 'exaggerated': Science journal” 11-15-11 http://www.theaustrali-an.com.au/news/health-science/climate-forecasts-exaggerated-science-journal/story-e6frg8y6-1226205464958 accessed date: 5-15-12 y2k Dramatic forecasts of global warming resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide have been exaggerated, according toa peer-reviewed study by a team of international researchers. In the study, published today in the leading journal Science, the researchers found that while rising levels of CO2 would cause climatechange, the most severe predictions - some of which were adopted by the UN's peak climate body in its seminal 2007 report - hadbeen significantly overstated. The authors used a novel approachbased on modelling the effects of reduced CO2 levels on climate, which they compared withproxy-records of conditions during the last glaciation, to infer the effects of doubling CO2 levels. They concluded that current worst-case scenarios for global warming were exaggerated. "Now these very large changes (predicted for the coming decades) can be ruled out, and we have some room to breathe and time tofigure out solutions to the problem," the study's lead author, Andreas Schmittner, an associate professor at Oregon State University, said. Politics muddies the debate Scientists have struggled for many years to understand how to quantify "climate sensitivity" - how Earth will respond to projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. In 2007, the UN's peak climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warned that a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels would warm the Earth's surface by an average of 2C to 4.5C, although some studies have claimed the impact could be 10C or higher. Professor Schmittner said it had been very difficult to rule out these extreme "high-sensitivity" scenarios, which were very important for understanding risks associated with climate change. The study found high-sensitivity models led to a "runaway effect" under which the Earth would have been covered in ice during the last glacial maximum, about 20,000 years ago, when CO2 levels were much lower. "Clearly that didn't happen, and that's why we are pretty confident that these high climate sensitivities can be ruled out," he said. Professor Schmittner said taking his results literally, the IPCC's average or "expected" value of a 3C average temperature increase for a doubling of CO2 ought to be regarded as an upper limit. "Many previous climate-sensitivity studies have looked at the past only from 1850 through totoday, and not fully integrated paleoclimate data, especially on a global scale," he said. "If these paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, the results imply less probability of extreme climatic change than previously thought." No impact to warming—you should assign zero risk.Lindzen 9—Richard S. Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Resisting climate hysteria” 8-14-09 http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2009/08/14/resisting-climate-hysteria Accessed date: 7-15-12 y2k Climate alarmists respond that some of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past decade. Given that we are in a relatively warm period, this is not surprising, but it says nothing about trends.Given that the evidence (and I have noted only a few of many pieces of evidence) strongly impliesthat anthropogenic warming has been greatly exaggerated, the basis for alarm due to such warming is similarly diminished. However, a really important point is that the case for alarm would still be weakeven if anthropogenic global warming were significant. Polar bears, arctic summer sea ice, regional droughts and floods, coral bleaching, hurricanes, alpine glaciers, malaria, etc. etc.all depend not on some global average of surface temperature anomaly, but ona huge number of regional variables including temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, and direction and magnitude of wind. The state of the ocean is also often crucial. Our ability to forecast any of these over periods beyond a few days is minimal (a leading modeler refers to it as essentially guesswork). Yet, eachcatastrophic forecastdepends on each of these being in a specific range.The odds of any specific catastrophe actually occurring are almost zero. This was equally true for earlier forecasts of famine for the 1980's, global cooling in the 1970's, Y2K and many others. Regionally, year to year fluctuations in temperature are over four times larger than fluctuations in the global mean. Much of this variation has to be independent of the global mean; otherwise the global mean would vary much more. This is simply to note that factors other than global warming aremore important to any specific situation. This is not to say that disasters will not occur; they always haveoccurred and this will not change in the future. Fighting global warming with symbolic gestureswill certainly not change this. However, history tells us that greater wealth and development can profoundly increase our resilience. 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