Pakistan in 2013 research paper 12/76 6 December 2012



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1


 In 2011, a new census was due to be conducted, but it was postponed. As in many other countries, the census has been a politically sensitive process in Pakistan. Some have accused the present Government of delaying a new census for political advantage. See: M. Kugelman, “Pakistan’s demographic dilemma”, Foreign Policy blog, 11 June 2011 [Last accessed 29 November 2012, as were all subsequent hyperlinks unless otherwise stated]

2


 In 2009, the Federally Administered Northern Areas were renamed Gilgit-Baltistan. Azad (Free) Kashmir is that part of Kashmir which is administered by Pakistan.

3


 See section 2.3 below for more details.

4


 “LB polls after general elections: Siraj Durrani”, Pakistan, 1 November 2012

5


 “”ECP unveils new and clean electoral lists”, Daily Times, 2 August 2012

6


 “Elections 2013: the youth factor”, Dawn, 16 May 2012

7


 Gulmina Ahmed, “Pakistani women in politics: swimming against the tide”, IFES slide show, 2010; “Why are 10 million women missing from Pakistan’s electoral rolls?”, Asia Foundation, 4 April 2012

8


 “The curious case of Pakistani women voters”, Dawn, 3 April 2012

9


 “Stage set for free, fair and transparent election”, Business Recorder, 3 August 2012

10


 For a fuller discussion of the 18th Amendment, see section 2.1 of this paper

11


 The current CEC, Justice Fakhruddin G. Ibrahim, appointed in July 2012 with the support of the all the major political parties, is a widely respected former Supreme Court judge.

12


 “Pakistan’s 2013 elections: Testing the political climate and the democratisation process”, Democracy Reporting International, Briefing Paper No. 9, January 2011, p3

13


 The 19th Amendment, which came into force in January 2011, reinforced some of the measures introduced under the 18th Amendment. “The Election Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011”, PILDAT Legislative Brief, February 2011. The full text of the Act is available via this link

14


 “PTI terms 20th Amendment undemocratic”, Dawn, 22 February 2012, ICG, “Election reform in Pakistan”, Asia Briefing No. 137, 16 August 2012, p4

15


 “Caretaker premier: political parties agree over Justice Nasir Aslam Zahid”, Daily Regional Times, 2 December 2012

16


 “Pakistan’s 2013 elections: Testing the political climate and the democratisation process”, Democracy Reporting International, Briefing Paper No. 9, January 2011, p3

17


 “Pakistan’s 2013 elections: Testing the political climate and the democratisation process”, Democracy Reporting International, Briefing Paper No. 9, January 2011, p3

18


 “Election Commission has become useless: CJP”, Pakistan Today, 17 April 2012

19


 “Pakistan’s 2013 elections: Testing the political climate and the democratisation process”, Democracy Reporting International, Briefing Paper No. 9, January 2011, p3

20


 “Key reforms for general elections in Pakistan”, Democracy Reporting International, Briefing Paper No. 30, July 2012, pp2-3

21


 ICG, “Election reform in Pakistan”, Asia Briefing No. 137, 16 August 2012, pp9-10

22


 “ECP proposes to lift polls expense cap by three-fold”, South Asian Media Network, 4 October 2012

23


 “Historic verdict to end electoral corruption”, The Nation, 9 June 2012

24


 “ECP to move against resigning MPs as another MNA quits”, Daily Times, 4 December 2012

25


 “ECP restores membership of 12 MPAs”, Right Vision News, 2 November 2012

26


 “ECP restores membership of 33 MPs”, Right Vision News, 18 October 2012

27


 ICG, “Election reform in Pakistan”, Asia Briefing No. 137, 16 August 2012, pp8-9

28


 “Pakistan: delimitation only in Karachi opposed”, Right Vision News, 4 December 2012

29


 “A sorry day for women voters”, Dawn, 8 March 2012

30


 “Women voters”, Pakistan Observer, 1 October 2012

31


 “Paklstan poll body says 4.8 million unverified voters in electoral rolls”, BBC Monitoring South Asia, 17 November 2012

32


 “Steps under way to increase voter turnout to 70%: ECP”, Right Vision News, 11 October 2012

33


 Code of Conduct for Elections, published draft, November 2012; “PILDAT terms ECP’s draft code of conduct largely vague and superfluous”, PILDAT press release, 8 November 2012

34


 “Shahbaz aims at making Pakistan an Islamic welfare state”, Pakistan Observer, 15 August 2012. The PPP has also used a similar phrase. See: “PM urges national to renew pledge to make Pakistan real Islamic welfare state”, Right Vision News10 November 2012

35


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp205, 238

36


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), p207

37


 J. Breman, “The undercities of Karachi”, New Left Review, 66, July-August 2012, p58

38


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp219, 240

39


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), p239. Bilawal has also found himself embroiled in controversy as a result of press reports alleging a romance with the foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, who is married.

40


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), p240-50

41


 “Democracy charter for Pakistan”, BBC News Online, 15 May 2006

42


 “Misuse of secret funds: SC summons IB spymasters”, South Asian Media Network, 1 December 2012

43


 “Make or break time for political parties”, The Nation, 5 November 2012

44


 “Supreme Court verdict allows PPP to play realpolitik”, The Pak Banker, 29 October 2012

45


 “General elections to show the real strength of PPP: Chandio”, Right Vision News, 26 September 2012; “PML-N to achieve thumping success in general elections: Shahbaz”, Balochistan Times, 2 October 2012

46


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp243, 245

47


 “Interview with Imran Khan”, PBS, 24 April 2012; “Tough decisions imperative to create new Pakistan: PTI”, Right Vision News, 26 August 2012

48


 “Pakistan party chief say will ask air force to shoot down US drones if elected”, The News, 4 October 2012. Khan’s views towards the US may not have been improved by his brief detention by the US immigration authorities when visiting North America in October.

49


 “Pakistani Taliban threaten to kill Imran Khan”, Headlines Today, 9 August 2012; “Taliban offers security to PTI’s peace march”, Express Tribune, 3 October 2012

50


 “Drone strike in Pakistan kills five suspected militants”, BBC News Online, 10 October 2012

51


 “Elections 2013: the youth factor”, Dawn, 16 May 2012

52


 “Imran promises 25% party tickets to youth”, Right Vision News, 6 November 2012

53


 “PML-N warns army, ISI to stop supporting PTI”, Express Tribune, 13 November 2011

54


 “Shireen Mazari levels 10 charges against PTI”, Daily Times, 3 October 2012. Such desertions and resignations are a permanent feature of life for all of Pakistan’s political parties, but over the last year the movement has been largely inward for the PTI.

55


 “Elections 2013: the youth factor”, Dawn, 16 May 2012

56


 “What to expect from Elections 2013”, Express Tribune, 12 November 2011; “No alliance with parties sitting in assembly”, Right Vision News, 19 September 2012

57


 For further detail, see ICG, “Islamic parties in Pakistan”, Asia Report No. 216, 13 December 2011

58


 “MMA revival without JI an enigma for workers”, Right Vision News, 26 September 2012

59


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp149-53

60


 “What to expect from Elections 2013”, Express Tribune, 12 November 2011

61


 “What to expect from Elections 2013”, Express Tribune, 12 November 2011

62


 “PPP, PML-Q agree to field joint candidates in elections”, Right Vision News, 4 November 2012

63


 J. Breman, “The undercities of Karachi”, New Left Review, 66, July-August 2012, p51

64


 “The return (and resurgence) of Napier”, www.cafepyala.blogspot.com, 6 August 2011

65


 J. Breman, “The undercities of Karachi”, New Left Review, 66, July-August 2012, pp53-55

66


 “Playing with a powder keg”, Pakistan Today, 2 December 2012

67


 “SC verdict on voter lists today”, Right Vision News, 6 December 2012

68


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp250-55

69


 “What to expect from Elections 2013”, Express Tribune, 12 November 2011

70


 A. Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country (London, 2011), pp388-89

71


 “What to expect from Elections 2013”, Express Tribune, 12 November 2011

72


 “Sindh Assembly passes SPLGO amid protest, PML-F, NPP, PML-Q, ANP oppose bill”, Right Vision News, 3 October 2012

73


 “PTI, ANP may form polls alliance”, Right Vision News, 7 October 2012

74


 “Bilour’s statement not ANP policy”, Right Vision News, 25 September 2012. Bilour was subsequently banned from entering the UK.

75


 18th Amendment

76


 C. Cookman, “The 18th Amendment and Pakistan’s political transitions”, Center for American Progress, 19 April 2010

77


 C. Cookman, “The 18th Amendment and Pakistan’s political transitions”, Center for American Progress, 19 April 2010

78


 This built on initiatives such as a decision to allow opposition parties, for the first time, to chair some parliamentary committees.

79


 The PPP has floated the idea of establishing a new province in South Punjab, where it has significant support. The PML-N, which is the dominant political force across Punjab as a whole, is implacably opposed.

80


 “Punjab, Karachi and decentralisation”, The News, 9 August 2011; “PPP striving to get 21st Amendment through next NA session”, Right Vision News, 4 October 2012

81


 “Democracy Monitor”, Quarterly Update (May-August 2012), Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT)

82


 “SC dismisses government appeal against holding of LB polls”, 1 December 2012

83


 “Punjab, Karachi and decentralisation”, The News, 9 August 2011

84


 “Rabbani sees plot to roll back devolution process”, Right Vision News, 29 July 2012; “Provinces lament non-transfer of assets”, Right Vision News, 10 October 2012

85


 This is the seventh award since provision for such awards was incorporated into the Constitution in 1973. Bew awards are supposed to be made every five years. The sixth was awarded in 2006, but did not address many issues that had been on the agenda since its 1996 predecessor.

86


 For further background, see: “In brief: Baluchistan – Pakistan’s forgotten conflict”, House of Commons Library Standard Note SN06106, 1 November 2011

87


 During the Musharraf era, the centre had seemed more interested in promoting decentralization down to local government, partially by-passing provincial governments. By contrast, the PPP-led Government has placed the provinces at the centre of its agenda.

88


 N. Iqbal and S. Nawaz, “Fiscal decentralization and macroeconomic stability: Theory and evidence from Pakistan”, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, December 2010

89


 U. Mustafa, “Fiscal federalism in Pakistan: The seventh National Finance Commission award and its implications”, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Working Paper No. 73, 2011, p9

90


 “Assessing the National Finance Commission award – Bilquis”, Changing up Pakistan blog, 18 May 2010; “Was the seventh NFC award a disaster?”, Express Tribune, 5 April 2012

91


 “Assessing the National Finance Commission award – Bilquis”, Changing up Pakistan blog, 18 May 2010; “Was the seventh NFC award a disaster?”, Express Tribune, 5 April 2012

92


 “Sales tax, FED issues remain unresolved”, Dawn, 21 May 2012

93


 “What Balochistan gets under NFC not sufficient, says official”, Right Vision News, 12 August 2012

94


 “Thousands of power cut rioters storm politician’s house”, Guardian, 20 June 2012

95


 U. Mustafa, “Fiscal federalism in Pakistan: The seventh National Finance Commission award and its implications”, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Working Paper No. 73, 2011, p8

96


 There is also the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA). They have elected political party representatives in the provincial assembly of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa but are otherwise in the same constitutional position as the FATA. No reforms have been introduced in the PATA by the PPP-led Government since 2008.

97


 ICG, “Pakistan: Countering militancy in FATA”, Asia Report No. 178, 21 October 2009, pp2-3

98


 S. Fazli, “A new dawn for Pakistan’s tribal areas?”, Foreign Policy, 12 August 2011

99


 “FCR Amendments: A way forward or hurdle for Peace and Development in FATA”, Report on seminar held in March 2012 by the FATA Research Centre, 15 April 2012

100


 “Govt asked to implement Fata reforms”, Right Vision News, 15 October 2012

101


 “FCR Amendments: A way forward or hurdle for Peace and Development in FATA”, Report on seminar held in March 2012 by the FATA Research Centre, 15 April 2012

102


 “Self-rule for Fata”, Hindustan Times, 2 August 2012

103


 “Dynamics of Fata reforms”, Dawn, 19 August 2011

104


 “Fata reform process”, Dawn, 9 May 2012

105


 “Democracy Monitor”, Quarterly Update (May-August 2012), Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency

106


 “An update on Gilgit-Baltistan elections”, ‘The Researchers’, no date

107


 “BJP’s ‘fight’ against ‘grant’ of provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan”, Early Times, 24 September 2012

108


 Sometimes also called Baluchistan. The Pakistan Constitution uses the name Balochistan.

109


 For further background, see House of Commons Library Standard Note SN06106, “In brief: Baluchistan –Pakistan’s forgotten conflict”, 1 November 2011; “Bad times in Baluchistan”, IISS Strategic Comments, Vol. 17, No. 46, December 2011

110


 Adapted from “Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan: Reform package stopped in its tracks”, Express Tribune, 7 March 2011

111


 “Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan: Lawmakers begin to question govt’s sincerity”, Express Tribune

112


 “Balochistan”, Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, March 2012, p21-22

113


 “Balochistan”, Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, March 2012, p21-22

114


 “Bad times in Baluchistan”, IISS Strategic Comments, Vol. 17, No. 46, December 2011

115


 “HRCP launches report of fact-finding mission to Balochistan”, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, press release, 30 August 2012

116


 “37pc Baloch favour independence: UK survey”, Right Vision News, 14 August 2012

117


 “Pakistan: Quetta roadside bomb kills soldiers and a civilian”, BBC News Online, 21 November 2012

118


 “The Balochistan plan”, The Nation, 3 October 2012

119


 “Change of guard in Balochistan”, The Frontier Post, 3 November 2012

120


 “PPP suspends Balochistan CM’s party membership for 3 months”, Right Vision News, 3 November 2012

121


 “Balochistan coalition to implement SC order”, Right Vision News, 21 November 2012

122


 O. Bennett-Jones, “Questions concerning the murder of Benazir Bhutto”, London Review of Books, 6 December 2012

123


 S. Fruman, “Will the long march to democracy in Pakistan finally succeed?”, US Institute for Peace, 2011, p15

124


 The ISI is the best-known intelligence agency, but there are numerous others in existence, including the Intelligence Bureau, over which the PPP-led Government does seem to have asserted a measure of control. O. Bennett-Jones, “Questions concerning the murder of Benazir Bhutto”, London Review of Books, 6 December 2012

125


 A. Siddiqa, Military Inc. Inside Pakistan’s military economy (London, 2007), p2

126


 50 other higher court judges were also reinstated.

127


 S. Fruman, “Will the long march to democracy in Pakistan finally succeed/”, US Institute for Peace, 2011, p16

128


 “Pak’s ISI forced to produce prisoners in court”, Zeenews.com, 14 February 2012

129


 “Wolrd media says memo report ‘political’, Ijaz not credible”, Daily Times, 15 June 2012

130


 “Memograte commission report exonerates ‘boss’ Zardari from any involvement”, Asian News International, 17 June 2012

131


 “SC orders foolproof security for Haqqani in Pakistan”, Daily Times, 17 November 2012

132


 “Pakistan Supreme Court bars PM Gilani from office”, BBC News Online, 19 June 2012. This ruling came soon after the Supreme Court had authorised a corruption investigation into the son of Chief Justice Chaudhry, who had recused himself from the case.

133


 Gilani subsequently made it clear that he felt that the party had abandoned him to his fate. He is also disqualified from standing in the next election. His relations with Zardari are now said to be tense. “Gilani family’s predicament remains unexplained, Dawn, 16 November 2012

134


 “Pakistan’s ruinous political farce”, BBC News Online, 22 June 2012; “Pakistan ruling party names new candidate to be PM”, BBC News Online, 22 June 2012

135


 “Democracy Monitor”, Quarterly Update (May-August 2012), Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency

136


 “Pakistan’s Supreme Court approves letter at the heart of institutional crisis”, IHS Global Insight, 10 October 2012

137


 “Pak PM Ashraf gives green signal for dispatching Swiss letter”, Asian News International, 22 October 2012

138


 “Military-judicial friction increases in Pakistan”, IHS Global Insight, 7 November 2012

139


 Another sensitive case for the military is the investigation just ordered by the Supreme Court into the controversial 2007 military operation to clear the Red Mosque in Islamabad of militants, in which at least 173 people died. “Lal Masjid probe ordered”, Right Vision News, 6 December 2012

140


 “SC ends debate on president’s dual office”, Right Vision News, 10 November 2012

141


 “judicial supremacy or dictatorship?”, Sunday Times (Islamabad), 5 August 2012

142


 S. Fruman, “Will the long march to democracy in Pakistan finally succeed/”, US Institute for Peace, 2011, pp17-18

143


 S. Cohen, “Law, order and the future of democracy in Pakistan”, Brookings Paper, 21 May 2012. When he refers to “pro-Jamaat”, he means lawyers that support JI.

144


 “Rights group urges Pakistan judges to stop censoring media”, Right Vision News, 28 November 2012

145


 “HRW again interferes blatantly in Pak judicial matters”, Right Vision News, 29 November 2012

146


 Pakistan has retained reservations to the ICCPR that prevent non-Muslims from becoming Prime Minister or President, and discriminate against women’s equal right to inheritance

147


 Amnesty International, Annual Report 2012; “National report to the UN Working Group on the UPR of Pakistan”, 6 August 2012

148


 Amnesty International, Annual Report 2012; “National report to the UN Working Group on the UPR of Pakistan”, 6 August 2012

149


 “State of Human Rights in 2011”, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, 2012

150


 “Q&A: Karachi violence”, BBC News Online, 4 August 2011

151


 ICG, “Reforming Pakistan’s criminal justice system”, Asia Report No. 196, 6 December 2010

152


 “Rights group urges Pakistan judges to stop censoring media”, Right Vision News, 28 November 2012

153


 ICG, “Reforming Pakistan’s prison system”, Asia Report No. 212, 12 October 2011

154


 “Pakistan: Capital punishment almost suspended”, Right Vision News, 17 November 2012

155


 Human Rights Watch, “Pakistan: Protect students, teachers, schools from attack”, 19 October 2012

156


 Pakistan is widely considered to have an extremely poor record on education. According to UNESCO, it is currently spending less than 2.3% of GNP on education and has the second highest number (after Nigeria) of out-of-school children in the world. “Pakistan behind Nepal, India in girls education”, Right Vision News, 20 October 2012. See also section 2.7

157


 “Pakistan: protect Shia muslims”, Human Rights Watch press release, 3 December 2011

158


 “More than 320 Shias killed in Pakistan this year in wave of sectarian attacks”, Daily Telegraph, 6 September 2012; “Foreign Office minister shocked and saddened by multiple suicide attacks in Pakistan”, statement by Foreign Office minister Baroness Warsi, 23 November 2012

159


 “Can Pakistan step back from the brink?”, BBC News Online, 3 January 2012

160


 “Pakistan ‘Koran plot’ imam remanded in blasphemy case”, BBC News Online, 2 September 2012

161


 “Pakistan: Rimsha blasphemy case dropped”, BBC News Online, 20 November 2012

162


 “Report on International Religious Freedom 2011”, US Department of State, July 2012

163


 “Human rights ministry submits universal periodic report to UN”, Right Vision News, 11 August 2012; “National report to the UN Working Group on the UPR of Pakistan”, 6 August 2012

164


 “Time to act in Pakistan is now, say human rights NGOs”, Pakistan Company News, 2 November 2012

165


 After the Government announced its candidacy, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch both called on the Government to take additional steps to promote and protect human rights. See Amnesty International, “Open letter: Pakistan’s candidacy for election to the UN Human Rights Council”, 19 October 2012

166


 Developments in combating terrorism in Pakistan since 2008 have been extensively covered by other experts and commentators, so what follows is a brief overview. See also: The ‘AfPak policy’ and the Pashtuns, House of Commons Library Research Paper 10/45, 22 June 2010

167


 Many argue that the feeling is mutual. See: A. Siddiqa, “Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy: separating friends from enemies”, Washington Quarterly, Winter 2011

168


 “The Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Bill 2012”, PILDAT Legislative Brief No. 17, November 2012; “The need for reform in anti-terror laws”,The Friday Times, 13-19 January 2012

169


 “Counter-terrorism authority dormant”, Dawn, 25 May 2011; S. Nawaz, “Who controls Pakistan’s security forces?”, USIP Special Report, No. 297, December 2011

170


 “The Investigation for Fair Trial Bill 2012”, PILDAT legislative brief, No. 16, October 2012

171


 ICG, “Pakistan: Countering Militancy in FATA”, Asia Report No. 178, 21 October 2009

172


 ICG, “Pakistan: Countering Militancy in FATA”, Asia Report No. 178, 21 October 2009

173


 FATA Research Centre, Daily Brief, 5 November 2012

174


 “Pakistan army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in unity plea”, BBC News Online, 14 August 2012; “Pak asks US to keep North Waziristan operation secret to avoid ‘complications’”, Asian News International, 17 September 2012

175


 “Not just yet”, Friday Times, 26 October 2012

176


 “Islamic militants threaten war on Pakistan over Kashmir”, www.telegraph.co.uk, 8 June 2012. For further discussion of the’composite dialogue’ between the two countries, see section 3.2.

177


 For further background on LeT, see: “Profile: Lashkar-e-Taiba”, Council on Foreign Relations backgrounder, updated 14 January 2010;

178


 “Lashkar-e-Taiba resumes online jihad”, The Hindu, 15 June 2012. Some have alleged that LeT increasingly has an international agenda and links with al-Qaeda.

179


 Unless otherwise referenced, analysis in this section is based on Ehtisham Ahmad’s essay on Pakistan’s economy for Europa World Plus; World Bank Pakistan Economic Update (June 2011); World Bank Country partnership strategy progress report for Pakistan (November 2011); IMF Pakistan Article IV consultation Staff Report (February 2012); Asian Development Bank Asian Development Outlook 2012 – Pakistan (February 2012). All statistics, unless otherwise referenced, are from the IMF World Economic Outlook database (October 2012) and data.worldbank.org

180


 IMF Survey, IMF Outlines $7.6bn loan for Pakistan, 15 November 2008

181


 IMF Survey IMF to lend Pakistan $3.2bn more to support social costs, build reserves, 7 August 2009

182


 World Bank Joint external debt hub

183


 See Ehtisham Ahmad’s essay on Pakistan’s economy for Europa World Plus

184


 ICG, “Reforming Pakistan’s Civil Service”, 16 February 2010

185


 World Bank Country partnership strategy progress report for Pakistan

186


 IMF Article IV Staff Report and World Economic Outlook database

187


 All statistics, unless otherwise referenced, are from the IMF World Economic Outlook database (October 2012) and data.worldbank.org

188


 UNDP MDGs in Pakistan

189


 See, for instance, ODI “The Benazir Income Support Programme and the Zakat programme”, November 2010

190


 World Bank Pakistan Country Partnership Strategy FY 2010-13

191


 Independent Commission on Aid Impact, DFID bilateral aid to Pakistan

192


 “Education emergency in Pakistan”, Financial Daily, 28 November 2012

193


 UNDP Human Development Report 2011 statistical tables

194


Malala Yousafzai: Pakistan girl ‘standing with help’”, BBC News Online, 19 October 2012. Western observers have often expressed concern about the role of madrassas in producing students with a strong affinity with militant Islam. One particularly well-known madrassa in this respect is the Darul Uloom Haqqania, located on the road from Islamabad to Peshawar. But it is estimated that only about 6% of children are educated in religious schools. O. Bennett-Jones, “Questions concerning the murder of Benazir Bhutto”, London Review of Books, 6 December 2012; “Education emergency in Pakistan”, Financial Daily, 28 November 2012

195


 Woodrow Wilson Center, “Hunger Pains: Pakistan’s food insecurity”, 2010

196


 Woodrow Wilson Center, “Hunger Pains: Pakistan’s food insecurity”, 2010

197


 IRIN Pakistan: floods uncover evidence of feudalism’s impact on poor, 17 Feb 2011

198


 World Bank/Asian Development Bank, Pakistan floods 2010: preliminary damage and needs assessment and The Peninsula Floods caused $3.7bn loss in Pakistan’s two provinces, 3 March 2012

199


 There were also significant floods in 2009, although these received less international attention. “Pakistan floods show Asia’s vulnerability to climate change”, Reuters, 11 October 2011

200


 “Pakistan unlikely to meet MDGs in forest cover: expert”, Right Vision News, 24 November 2012

201


 “Pakistan floods”, OXFAM, last updated February 2012

202


 J. Breman, “The undercities of Karachi”, New Left Review, 66, July-August 2012, p57

203


 DEC Disaster risk reduction in Pakistan: the contribution of DEC member agencies, 2010-12

204


 “Flooding in Pakistan kills at least 78 people in three days”, BBC News Online, 10 September 2012

205


 “5 million people affected by floods, 473 died”, Pakistan Observer, 5 November 2012

206


 ICG, “Pakistan: No end to humanitarian crises”, Asia Report No. 237, 9 October 2012

207


 “Minister says federal government did not help flood survivors in Sindh”, Pakistan Press International, 18 October 2012

208


 “Funding shortfall limits Pakistan flood response”, States News Service, 2 November 2012

209


 “Winter poses serious challenges for flood-affected areas, PRCS”, Pakistan Press International, 30 October 2012

210


 Ehtisham Ahmad’s essay on Pakistan’s economy for Europa World Plus

211


 Woodrow Wilson Center, “Hunger Pains: Pakistan’s food insecurity”, 2010

212


 PANAP and Roots for Equity, “Of collusions and collaborations: a case of land grab in Sindh, Pakistan”, November 2012, p3

213


 “Land-grabbing’ gravest crime: Court”, Gulf News, 5 December 2012

214


Pakistan power cuts prompt violent protests”, Financial Times, 30 July 2012

215


 Although heavier users generally receive a lower rate of subsidy, there is no system of cross-subsidisation, whereby certain types of consumer pay over the odds to subsidise the prices paid by others. A World Bank report found that the richest 20% in Pakistan benefitted most from power subsidies.

216


 See, for instance, “Uh-oh. Pakistan can’t pay its electric bills”, Foreign Policy, 10 May 2012

217


 “The growing Pakistani carbon footprint threatening quality of life”, Pakistan Today, 5 June 2012

218


 “Pakistan unlikely to meet MDGs in forest cover: expert”, Right Vision News, 24 November 2012

219


 “Security and the environment in Pakistan”, Congressional Research Service, August 2010

220


 Pakistan Economic Survey 2010-11

221


 LEAD Pakistan, “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions”, policy brief, November 2011

222


 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2011

223


 Dr Q. Chaudhry, “National Climate Change Policy – draft”, presentation, 2011; “A review of National Climate Change Policy”, Strengthening Participatory Organization, discussion paper 12, July 2012

224


 UN-REDD Programme: Pakistan

225


 Dr S. Jehangir, (Ministry of Climate Change), “Status of implementing Cancun Agreement on REDD+ in Pakistan”, slideshow, November 2012

226


 “Security and the environment in Pakistan”, Congressional Research Service, August 2010. Pakistan depends heavily on the Indus river system. The Punjab and Sindh governments have long been at loggerheads over plans to build the Kalabagh dam, which is on the Indus river in Punjab. The Sindh government claims that the dam would reduce Sindh province’s access to the riparian waters. The Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government is also opposed.

227


 This part of the paper does not provide a blow-by-blow account of Pakistan’s most important bilateral relationships since 2008. Instead, it offers an analytical overview. Further background can be found in House of Commons Library Research Paper 07/68, Pakistan’s political and security challenges, 13 September 2007

228


 O. Bennett-Jones, Pakistan. Eye of the Storm (New Haven, 2003), p. xxiv

229


 “Pakistani public opinion ever more critical of US”, Pew Global Attitudes Project, 27 June 2012

230


 “America’s Pakistan mess gets worse with alleged NATO strike”, The Daily Beast, 27 November 2011

231


 A. Lieven, “A mutiny grows in Punjab”, National Interest, 23 February 2011

232


 See House of Commons Library Paper RP 10/45, The ‘AfPak’ policy and the Pashtuns, 22 June 2010

233


 A. Khan, “Conceptualizing AfPak: The prospects and the perils”, Asia Programme Paper AS PP2010/01, Chatham House, January 2010, p18

234


 More broadly, Pakistan has long complained that the US could do more to put pressure on India over Kashmir. It has asked, but not got, US mediation. India is implacably opposed to the idea.

235


 S. Joshi, “Osam bin Laden: Pakistan faces the music”, RUSI commentary, May 2011

236


 “America’s Pakistan mess gets worse with alleged NATO strike”, The Daily Beast, 27 November 2011

237


 These events also affected US public opinion, where the fact that bin Laden had lived without apparent hindrance in Pakistan for some years raised the question of Pakistani official collusion.

238


 “Department of Defense statement regarding investigation results into Pakistan cross-border incident”, US Department of Defense news release No. 1036-11, 22 December 2011

239


 S. Joshi, “A tough way to do business”, The World Today, January 2012. These border crossings had been closed to NATO convoys before, but never for such a prolonged period. For a time, Pakistan was seeking a massive hike in transit fees for NATO convoys before it reopened the crossings. In the end, this was dropped.

240


 “Pakistan high stakes over NATO’s supply route”, BBC News Online, 4 July 2012

241


 “US Congress panel freezes $700m. worth of Pakistan aid”,


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