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APPENDIX 2: UNIT ROOT TESTS Lagged Maize Price Population of Tobacco Growers Null Hypothesis LATG has a unit root Exogenous Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length 0 (Automatic
- based on SIC, maxlag=9)
t-Statistic Prob Augmented
Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.310375 0.0812 Test critical values 1% level
-4.243644 5% level
-3.544284 10% level
-3.204699 Null Hypothesis LMP1 has a unit root Exogenous Constant, Linear Trend Lag Length 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8) t-Statistic
Prob Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
-5.491492 0.0004 Test critical values 1% level
-4.252879 5% level
-3.548490 10% level
-3.207094
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
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*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable D(LATG) Method Least Squares Date 03/17/16 Time 14:25 Sample (adjusted 1981 2015 Included observations 35 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LATG(-1)
-0.348638 0.105317
-3.310375 0.0023 C
2.188351 0.662534 3.303004 0.0024 TREND)
0.055008 0.015214 3.615626 0.0010
R-squared
0.300018 Mean dependent var 0.120898 Adjusted R-squared 0.256269 SD.
dependent var 0.257410 SE. of regression
0.221990 Akaike info criterion -0.090554 Sum squared resid 1.576943
Schwarz criterion 0.042761 Log likelihood
4.584701 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.044534
F-statistic
6.857737
Durbin-Watson stat 2.340035
Prob(F-statistic)
0.003322
