DISARMING MAY LEAD STATES UNDER THE NUCLEAR UMBRELLA TO DEVELOP THEIR OWN WEAPONS Robert G. Joseph and John F. Reichart. The Case for Nuclear Deterrence Today Orbis, 00304387, Winter 1998, Vol. 42, Issue 1. Drastic reductions might also have a deleterious effect on the security calculations of US. allies who have long depended on the American nuclear umbrella. In an uncertain future, perhaps in the face of an aggressive China or resurgent Russia, the insecurities perceived by today's allies could compel them to develop their own nuclear deterrent capabilities or accommodate themselves to the threat in the absence of a credible American nuclear force The defection of even one major ally--Japan for instance--could have profoundly negative implications for global stability and US. security interests.
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