Prediction from Weeks to Decades
Download 1.43 Mb.
|
Figure 5: As Fig. 3 but for trends. For comparison with AMV and PDV, which show a transition from neutral to peak conditions over about 15 years, we show 15-year normalised differences. Figure redrawn following Smith et al. (2012). 
Figure 6: Seamless forecasting services and potential users of monthly to decadal predictions (from Met Office Science Strategy: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/a/t/Science_strategy-1.pdf). 2 Here we define the prediction of climate anomalies as the prediction of statistics of weather (i.e., mean temperature or precipitation, variance, probability of extremes such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, high winds …). 3 In some of the literature a “prediction” corresponds to an initial value problem and the “projection” corresponds to a boundary forced problem. Here we recognize that decadal prediction and even seasonal prediction is a both an initial value and a boundary value problem. Throughout the text we refer to the combined initial value and boundary value problem as prediction problem. Directory: archive -> jhurrell -> Springer archive -> In this issue archive -> United states archive -> - archive -> The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 1: Description and Examples Abstract archive -> United states jhurrell -> Prediction from Weeks to Decades Springer -> Understanding and Predicting Climate Variability and Change at Monsoon Regions jhurrell -> Building Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Less Developed Countries Springer -> Community Paper on Climate Extremes Download 1.43 Mb. Share with your friends:
|