Acura recently said it might build the DN-X, a four-door, all-wheel-drive hybrid sports car producing 400 horsepower and delivering 42 mpg

"Many automakers look at this as a long-term investment," Cogan said. "It allows them to be competitive, and it presents them as environmentally inclined and technologically advanced."

Cranking out all those cars won't mean a thing if no one buys them. Hybrids have until recently been saddled with a dowdy image, as little cars that get great gas mileage -- as high as 61 mpg -- but are so boring that only environmentalists could love them.

POPULARITY INCREASES

However, as gas prices rise, concern over global warming mounts and the United States struggles to curb its dependence on foreign oil, hybrids are become more popular, experts said.

"People are increasingly interested in hybrids," said Thad Malesh, director of alternative power technologies at J.D. Power. "The direction for anyone who sells cars in this country is definitely toward hybrids."

Those who have bought the cars tend to love them.

"I get between 50 and 60 miles per gallon," said Laura Rinaldi, a graphic artist from Boulder Creek (Santa Cruz County) who bought a Toyota Prius last year. "I drive a lot, and I used to have to refill every three days. Now I can go anywhere from a week to a week and a half without refilling. I'm saving at least half on gas."

Hybrids deliver great mileage because electric motors assist their gasoline engines, allowing the engines to be smaller. The motor provides power during acceleration and at low speeds. The engine kicks in at highway speeds. The two work in roughly equal proportions when cruising around town.

Hybrids offer fuel economy 15 to 50 percent higher than gasoline engines and reduce emissions by up to 90 percent, making them among the cleanest vehicles on the road. Toyota says its 100,000 Priuses have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 50,000 to 70,000 tons since 1998.

The cars aren't as clean as zero-emission electric or fuel-cell vehicles that run on hydrogen, but environmentalists said they are an improvement over cars that rely only upon internal combustion.

CLOSER TO PERFECTION

"They aren't a perfect solution, but they're a big step in the right direction," said Jamie Knapp, spokeswoman for the Zero Emissions Vehicle Alliance.

Many environmentalists want Japan and Detroit to move faster in getting them on the road.

"Why is the industry holding back?" asked Tim Carmichael of the Coalition for Clean Air. "They say half a million on the road by 2007. I say, 'Why so few?'

"There's no reason we shouldn't be seeing, and the industry shouldn't be providing, this technology across their entire line of products."

Hybrids are popular with green-minded drivers because they are easy to use. They don't need to be plugged into a socket, and they won't run out of juice in the middle of nowhere. Owners just get in and drive.

"There's nothing odd or funky about it," said Lynn Fuller, a San Francisco attorney who bought a Toyota Prius in December.

Except for the styling. Although Insight and Prius owners rave about their cars with almost cultlike devotion, the cars look -- to put it kindly -- unusual.

With its long, low profile, egg-like shape and fender skirts, the Insight looks like a 1950s image of the car of the future.

The Prius is tall and boxy and looks like the econobox sedan that it is. Take a close look at the Prius and see how it, well, echoes the dowdiness of the Toyota Echo.

But the cars were pioneers and, as such, needed to be unusual to grab consumers' attention, industry analysts said. The next generation of hybrid cars will look like every other car on the road.

The Civic Hybrid is identical to the popular Civic sedan in every way except for the electric motor under its hood and batteries in the trunk. The Ford Escape, due next year, will look just like the regular Escape, a small SUV.

MOVING TO POPULAR MODELS

Both cars are considered milestones because they are the first established, popular models to offer hybrid power trains.

"Going to the Civic was a huge step and very important," said J.D. Power's Malesh. "The Civic broke new ground, and the Escape will break even more ground. If it takes off, it will do nothing but increase the receptivity of hybrids."

The Escape may mark a new direction for hybrid technology. Auto industry analysts expect the technology to begin showing up in SUVs because of the huge improvements in fuel economy and emissions it offers.

In recent years, engineering students at UC Davis have outfitted a Chevrolet Suburban and a Ford Explorer with hybrid drivetrains that use electric motors and small four-cylinder engines donated by Saturn.

The technology has doubled the fuel economy of the two vehicles: the Suburban gets 28 mpg and the Explorer gets 30 mpg. The vehicles also offer higher performance because electric engines deliver more torque and better handling because their batteries lower their center of gravity.

"SUVs offer the most room for improvement," said Vern Francisco, a graduate student in mechanical engineering who has worked on the vehicles. "The fuel economy gains are much more pronounced."

While the automakers are keeping mum about specific plans for hybrids, industry analysts expect to see hybrid versions of the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry -- two of the world's best-selling cars -- before long.

The Civic and Escape will help hybrids establish a beachhead in Middle America. Although wildly popular in the Bay Area -- 1 of every 5 hybrids sold in the United States is sold here -- the cars have yet to catch on in Peoria.

"If the hybrid flies there, it will have passed its first real test," said Csaba Csere, editor of Car & Driver magazine.

COST GETS IN THE WAY

The biggest stumbling block, Csere said, is cost. Hybrids are complex cars, with gasoline engines, electric motors, batteries and a computer to unify the two systems. All of that extra hardware can bring some sticker shock.

The Civic Hybrid has a base price of $19,550 -- compared with $17,060 for a top-shelf Civic sedan. The Prius starts at $20,480.

"The fact is you pay $3,000 more for the hybrid, and you're not likely to make that up in fuel savings even if you drive the car for 100,000 miles," Csere said. "You have to be a green-minded person; otherwise, you're just flushing money down the toilet."

Consumers are willing to pay as much as $1,500 more for a hybrid before they begin to reconsider, according to J.D. Power. Toss in the $2,000 Federal Clean-Fuel Vehicle tax reduction the IRS offers, hybrid fans said, and price becomes less of an issue.

The premium will shrink as automakers introduce more models, experts said. Toyota said last month that it will sell its hybrid technology to competitors, which will lower prices further. Nissan has accepted the offer, and General Motors -- which worked with Toyota on the Geo line of cars several years ago --

is said to be interested.

Such deals will open the door for automakers to roll out hybrids quickly because they won't have to develop the technology, an expensive proposition, just install it in a car.

Before long, automakers will offer hybrid power trains as an option in most,

if not all, of their vehicles, automakers and industry watchers said.

HYBRIDS ON DISPLAY

The 45th annual San Francisco International Car Show, which runs through next Sunday at Moscone Convention Center, includes Honda and Toyota hybrids, alternative-fuel and concept models among the 800 vehicles by 40 manufacturers.

Hours are 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily, 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday. Admission is $7,

children under 12 free when accompanied by an adult. For more information, see www.sfautoshow.com.

HYBRID VEHICLES COMBINE FEATURES OF ELECTRIC, GAS SYSTEMS

Ford plans to start selling a hybrid version of its Escape sport utility vehicle in late 2003. Like hybrids currently on the market, the Escape HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) will not need to be plugged in - the battery is recharged by a small gasoline engine and a regenerative braking system. An electric motor powers the vehicle's drivetrain, with boosts from the gas engine when necessary. .

A hybrid SUV: the Ford Escape HEV

Both power sources are controlled by a computer, which continuously monitors the system and engages either the electric or gasoline motor at the appropriate times.

GASOLINE Components

-- 4-cylinder internal combustion engine: Provides power to the drivetrain during acceleration and charges battery at other times. Shuts off when not needed (for example, when the car comes to a stop); restarts automatically when accelerator is pressed.

-- Fuel tank (not shown): Uses standard gasoline.

ELECTRIC Components

-- Regenerative brakes: When the brakes are applied, energy that would otherwise be lost as heat is collected and used to recharge the battery.

-- 300-volt battery pack: Rechargeable nickel-hydride modules supply energy to the radio, lights, heating and other accessories, and can store energy generated by the engine.

-- Electric transaxle: Combines functions of transmission and electric motor; powers drivetrain whenever vehicle is in motion. .

NOW ON THE ROAD

These 2003 models all have continuously variable automatic transmissions. Both Hondas also offer 5-speed manuals.

E-mail Chuck Squatriglia at csquatriglia@sfchronicle.com.
HONDA CIVIC HYBRID HONDA INSIGHT TOYOTA PRIUS

Gasoline engine In-line 4, In-line 3, In-line 4,

1.3 liters 1 liter 1.5 liters

Wheelbase/length 103.1"/174.8" 94.5"/155.1" 100.4"/169.6"

Seating 5 2 5

Cargo space 10.1 cu.ft. 16.5 cu.ft. 11.8 cu.ft.

Horsepower

Gas engine 85 (at 67 (at 70 (at

only 5,700 rpm) 5,700 rpm) 4,500 rpm)

Gas plus 93 (5,700 73 (5,700 100 (4,500

electric rpm) rpm) rpm)

Peak torque

Gas engine 87 lb.ft. 66 lb.ft. 82 lb.ft.

only (3,300 rpm) (4,800 rpm) (4,200 rpm)

Gas plus 105 lb.ft. 91 lb.ft. 258 lb.ft.

electric (3,000 rpm) 1 (1,500 rpm) (0-400 rpm)

Air bags 2 front, 2 side 2 front 2 front

(side optional)

Mileage 2 51/47 mpg 60/56 mpg 52/45 mpg

Base price 3 $21,010 $21,740 $20,480

.

1 With variable transmission (116 @ 1,500 rpm with manual).

3 Including destination (shipping) charges and variable automatic

transmissions.

Sources: The car companies; New York Times News Service; howstuffworks.com

Todd Trumbull / The Chronicle
URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/11/24/BU184168.DTL

Gas transit has legs

Internal combustion isn't going away

Chuck Squatriglia

Sunday, November 24, 2002

Automakers are rushing to develop hybrid automobiles and to perfect fuel- cell technology in a constant quest to minimize emissions and maximize fuel economy, but the industry's future may lie in its past.

Despite their huge investments in the drivetrains of the future, automakers expect the internal combustion engine -- already 117 years old -- to continue propelling cars for decades to come.

"We're not going to see the gasoline engine going away," said Thad Malesh, director of alternative power technologies for J.D. Power & Associates, a leading auto industry research firm. "It will be the dominant power plant for the foreseeable future."

Automakers are spending millions to develop advanced internal combustion engines that rely upon sophisticated computers and electronic components to deliver unsurpassed fuel economy while meeting or beating the strictest emissions standards.

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology predict that fuel economy will increase nearly 20 percent by 2010 and 35 percent by 2020. A recent three-year study by UC Riverside researchers found vehicles powered by the latest internal combustion engines run as cleanly as gasoline-electric hybrids.

Two such cars already are on the road. The 2003 Nissan Sentra XE and four- cylinder Honda Accord are the only gas-burning cars designated "super ultra low emission vehicles" by the California Air Resources Board. That places them alongside the Honda Insight and Toyota Prius hybrids as the cleanest vehicles available.

"Obviously, you can do it with a straight gasoline engine because Nissan has been doing it for years," said CARB spokesman Jerry Martin.

Other automakers are working toward the same goal. Among the developments under way:

-- Improved coatings on cylinder walls, pistons and other moving parts to minimize friction and maximize fuel economy.

-- Cylinder deactivation, meaning that only as many cylinders as are needed for a specific task -- accelerating, cruising, towing and the like -- are firing.

-- Variable valve timing controlled by a computer to maximize performance and fuel economy while reducing emissions.

-- Replacement of mechanical components -- the valve train, water pump, air conditioning compressor and so forth -- with electronic components. That will allow more power to be sent to the wheels, increasing efficiency and reducing fuel consumption.

Of course, fuel-cell vehicles -- nonpolluting cars that burn hydrogen and emit only water -- remain the Holy Grail of the auto industry. But the technology is so complicated and expensive that most experts believe it is at least a decade or two from viability.

In the meantime, automakers will continue to improve the internal combustion engine, which is the cheapest and most reliable power plant available.

"There's a lot of life left in that old horse yet," said J.D. Power's Malesh. "We're nowhere near the end of the line."

MY ENTRY AS I WROTE IT: A group of Bay Area entrepreneurs, technologists, environmentalists and others is launching the California Car Company Initiative to bring better cleaner cars to CA. We hope EV1 + Th!nk owners will get to have plug-in hybrids (EVs with unlimited range) as a result. Check out http://www.calcars.us to find out more and perhaps help.

GM is suing to avoid producing its EV1 electric car after sabotaging test marketing in California. Thousands signed for it, but only 1500 were ever made.

Forced by a clean-air mandate, General Motors built 1500 EV1 highway-capable electric vehicles (EVs) from 1996-1999.

The EV1 is fast, safe and well-equipped, having been designed from the ground up as an EV; drivers love the car. GM test-marketed only to affluent consumers in southern California, available only by lease. Promotion for the EV1 was limited and omitted offers for sale.

The EV1 was withdrawn from production after the California zero-emission vehicle mandate was relaxed, the company arguing that there is no demand for EV1s, in spite of the thousands on waiting lists for the car. There are currently only about 5000 EVs of all makes in the United States.

A study, The Current and Future Market for Electric Vehicles, was done by the experienced automotive market research company, the Dohring Company, for the Green Car Institute. The expected sales of EVs in the US would start at 12,000 to 24,000 a year and expand toward 180,000 to 270,000 sales yearly in five years. Conclusion: “The market for EVs exists. It is simply awaiting the right products, properly marketed to meet consumer needs, to blossom.”

http://www.greencar.com/gci/gcimarketing.pdf

93% of Americans polled recently support clean-air transportation. Most would even pay more for it. GM is currently suing the California Air Resources Board in an attempt to evade all zero-emission vehicle requirements. GM is ignoring a profitable market at the behest of the oil industry. "Taken for a Ride", by Jack Doyle, is a comprehensive study of automakers' history of resistance to all safety and fuel-efficiency improvements.

We, the undersigned, in support of energy independence and clean air, ask that GM begin selling electric vehicles to the American public. ..... See full petition below

GM: Sell Us Your EV1 Electric Cars!

Forced by a clean-air mandate, General Motors built 1500 EV1 highway-capable electric vehicles (EVs) from 1996-1999.

The EV1 is fast, safe and well-equipped, having been designed from the ground up as an EV; drivers love the car. GM test-marketed only to affluent consumers in southern California, available only by lease.

Promotion for the EV1 was limited and omitted offers for sale.

The EV1 was withdrawn from production after the California zero-emission vehicle mandate was relaxed, the company arguing that there is no demand for EV1s, in spite of the thousands on waiting lists for the car. There are currently only about 5000 EVs of all makes in the United States.

93% of Americans polled recently support clean-air transportation. Most would even pay more for it.

GM is currently suing the California Air Resources Board in an attempt to evade all zero-emission vehicle requirements. GM is ignoring a profitable market at the behest of the oil industry.

"Taken for a Ride", by Jack Doyle, is a comprehensive study of automakers' history of resistance to all safety and fuel-efficiency improvements.

We, the undersigned, in support of energy independence and clean air, ask that GM begin selling electric vehicles to the American public.
http://www.svbizink.com/headlines/article.asp?aid=3987&iid=277

Published: Wednesday, November 27, 2002

BY STEVE TANNER

All of the electric motorists Biz Ink spoke with -- including Propel Software Corp. founder Steve Kirsch, and Gloria Duffy, CEO of the Commonwealth Club of California -- love General Motors Corp.'s EV1. But GM plans to recall the 650 EV1s it leased in California and Arizona, scrapping many of them.

The two states passed guidelines requiring the availability of a certain number of zero-emission vehicles by 2003. California's law, passed in the early 1990s, required 10 percent of all vehicles to have zero emissions by next year. That was eventually lowered to 3 percent, and now allows golf carts to fall into the same category as the EV1.

GM claims weak market demand and lack of a business model. But EV1 drivers and consumer advocate Ralph Nader say the real problem is the auto industry's love affair with the internal combustion engine, which has a limited life and drives secondary business through regular maintenance.

Nope Sawang-Wan, a technician at Saturn of Marin (a GM division that services the EV1), says the EV1 is very low maintenance.

"There's really not much in those cars," Sawang-Wan says. "The only thing we do is rotate the tires and check for computer and electrical problems."

Nader says gasoline engines keep people coming back "again and again."

"Basically, GM has dangled the electric car to distract consumers from the dirty internal combustion engine," he says. "GM has pursued this detour and manipulation, it's-just-around-the-corner tactic so they can continue [ to profit from the high-maintenance gasoline engine]."

GM's plans to not renew the leases and take the cars off the road have early-adopters, such as Kirsch, bewildered.

"I love it; I hate to see it go," says Kirsch, who has leased the EV1 since 2000. "I think they want to focus more of their energy on fuel cells. The other part is shortsightedness on the part of car manufacturers."

Rod Diridon, chairman of the National Research Council's panel to combat global warming with alternative fuel vehicles -- and an EV1 lessee -- says building zero-emission cars is a moral imperative.

"How long is the world going to allow 4 percent of the world's population to produce 26 percent of the Earth's greenhouse gasses?" Diridon asks, citing statistics pertaining to Americans' disproportionate appetite for petroleum, reported in the October 1998 issue of National Geographic.

"That is what the rest of the world looks at when the U.S. refuses to sign on to the Kyoto Treaty [to lower greenhouse gasses by setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions]," Diridon adds.

GM spokesman Donn Walker, who says a total of 950 EV1s were built, confirms Kirsch's first assumption, saying "it's in our interest as a society to move our company toward hydrogen [fuel cells]."

As for the latter claim of shortsightedness on behalf of the auto industry, Walker says neither GM nor its competitors could make a solid business case for the electric car.

"It's all about building products that are profitable," Walker says. "There's simply no business case for [the EV1]. It's not fair to the employees and shareholders of the company."

Walker says GM subsidized the cost of the vehicles to the tune of 80 percent, though much of the money was sunk into research and development and GM built less than 1,000 EV1s. Building these in volume, Diridon says, would have allowed GM to see some profit over time.

But making just a handful of the cars, Diridon believes, gave GM positive public relations without having to make a real commitment to electric cars.

"They were afraid they were going to get demand and have to build some more," says Diridon, echoing Nader's charge of a "dangling" tactic on the part of GM.

Walker -- declaring GM's belief that there is no future for electric cars -- says a better way to clean the air is to sell more new cars, which he claims are 99 percent cleaner than those made 30 years ago.

Also, Walker confirms GM's commitment to supporting the internal combustion engine for as long as possible.

"The great thing about technology is that with every decade, we keep finding a lot more oil in the Earth," Walker says.

Woodside-based EV1 lessee Richard Pivnicka, honorary counsel general to the Czech Republic, agrees with GM's assertion that the electric car is not as lucrative as the combustion engine -- and believes that is the reason GM is scrapping the EV1. But he counters GM's claims about slack demand.

"I would say the interpretation of the marketplace by GM is simply not accurate," Pivnicka says. "When they say there is not a sufficient market for these cars, I know I could have sold one at every cocktail party I've been to."

Stan Skokan, president of the New York-based Electric Vehicle Association of America, likens the auto industry to a cartel with too much riding on the combustion engine. But consumer demand, he says, is there.

"For 30 years, I've been involved in educating the general public that non-polluting vehicles are possible," Skokan says. "It's just for political and economic reasons that this technology is blocked."

GM's Walker, though, says speculations about a conspiracy of parts manufacturers, the oil industry and other facets of the gas-burning automobile infrastructure is simply absurd. He says it's all about the bottom line.

"I can't understand why ordinarily intelligent people can't understand this," Walker says, with a tone of frustration.

For EV1 lessees in the Bay Area, though, letting go of the EV1 will not be easy.

"I think [GM] has done an extraordinary job," Pivnicka says. "They should be proud of this great achievement."

The Commonwealth Club's Duffy says she will miss her daily commute from San Jose to San Francisco in the carpool lane -- one benefit of driving an electric car. She can go 120 miles per charge and says it costs about a dollar to "fill it up."

"I generally find it a real advantage as a consumer, and I don't mind making adjustments," Duffy says. "People just need a shift in thinking."

Steve Tanner is a Biz Ink reporter.

Sidebar: Bay Area EV1 drivers (Silicon Valley Biz.Ink Nov 29, 2002)

Willie Brown, Mayor of SF

John Chambers, CEO of Cisco

Jim Clark, co-founder of Netscape

Rod Diridon, Executive Director, Mineta Transportation Institute, San Jose State University

Gloria Duffy, CEO, Commonwealth Club of CA

Steve Kirsch, founder and CEO of Propel Software

Richard Pivnicka, honorary counsel general, Czech Republic, Woodside resident

Robin Williams, actor and comedian

http://www.greencars.org/newsreleases_sept7.htm